301 Holcombe Way · Lambertville, NJ 08530

$896,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,478 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 58 Days on market

Built 2005 1,742 sqft lot $258/sqft · 6% below area Est $952k · 6% under $375/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the enclave of Lambert’s Hill, a rare opportunity awaits to make the community’s original model home your own. This professionally decorated Patterson floorplan’s refined presence is unmistakable. A classic and welcoming front porch, manicured landscaping, a two-car garage and new Hardiplank siding set the tone for what lies within. Rooms unfold with sophistication and grace. The main level features an elegant front entryway having a decorative glass transom and sidelights leading into the marble tiled foyer, which transition into gleaming hardwood floors. The open floor plan with side-by-side formal living and dining rooms with many high-end upgrades, graceful

Key facts

• Marble tiled foyer
• Original model home
• Classic front porch

Tags

• ORIGINAL MODEL HOME
• CLASSIC FRONT PORCH
• MANICURED LANDSCAPING
• NEW HARDIPLANK SIDING
• MARBLE TILED FOYER
• GLEAMING HARDWOOD FLOORS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $375; HOA covers common area maintenance and lawn care (front, rear, side)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with front entry; Two garage spaces (oversized) with garage door opener; Private asphalt driveway with four driveway spaces; Total of six garage and parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Private sewer; Cable TV available
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Three floors in unit; Fee simple ownership; Property in excellent condition
• Construction: Mixed construction with cement siding and brick; Asphalt roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Year built information from assessor
• Exterior features: Deck(s) and porch(es); Palladian windows; Not in a federal flood zone; 48"+ hallway accessibility

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Cooktop; Dishwasher; Wall ovens (double); Refrigerator; Range hood; Stainless steel appliances; Icemaker; Extra refrigerator/freezer; Kitchen island
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first upper level
• Flooring: Solid hardwood; Tile/brick; Carpet; Wood floors
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on upper levels); Two half bathrooms (one on main level, one on lower level)
• Heating & cooling: 90% forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (natural gas cooling fuel); Electric hot water
• Interior features: Walk-in shower and jetted tub in bathrooms; Built-in shelving and storage; Breakfast area and eat-in kitchen; Chair railings and crown moldings; Open floor plan with formal dining area; Family room off kitchen; Kitchen island and pantry; Recessed lighting; Stain/lead glass accents; Upgraded countertops; Walk-in closets; Window treatments; Wine storage; Wood floors
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Main floor laundry; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $896k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10k ($116k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($21k rent vs $896k).
• Recommended offer: $869k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.3% vs local median 4.6% in Lambertville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#168 in NJ, #4,460 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• South Hunterdon Regional School District (rural): math 13% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #335 of 472 in NJ (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lambertville Public School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #795 of 1,303 statewide, top 64%, 221 students, 34% FRL); South Hunterdon Regional High School (math 14% / reading 42%, grade F, #304 of 399 statewide, top 77%, 417 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools average 29% FRL vs 14% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 389 units permitted in Hunterdon County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $27k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hunterdon County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $251k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($869k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $869,120 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.28%
• DSCR: 3.06
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $951,561
• List price: $896,000
• Delta: -5.84%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
247 N Main St	0.26mi	3/2.0	3,270 (-6%)	2mo	$740,000	$226	72
4 Culture Ct	0.36mi	4/2.5 (+1)	3,211 (-8%)	13mo	$793,000	$247	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $471,713
• Equity at exit: $133,597

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.81×
• Total profit: $1,206,933
• Equity at exit: $77,470

Cash invested: $250,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08530

• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $20,785 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,699
• Tax from tax record: −$1,297 /mo · $15,569/yr
• Insurance: −$373
• HOA: −$375
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,365
• Net cashflow: $9,676

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,537

Max offer price $896,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $10,183	-5% $9,929	+0% $9,676	+5% $9,422	+10% $9,168
Rent	-10% $8,034	-5% $8,855	+0% $9,676	+5% $10,497	+10% $11,318
Rate	-1.0pp $10,127	-0.5pp $9,904	base $9,676	+0.5pp $9,444	+1.0pp $9,207

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $224,000
• Closing costs: $26,880
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9 Arnett Ave Unit 1380124P Lambertville, NJ	4.0	2.0	2497	$25,101	$10.05	45d	1	0.32mi
70 W Bridge St New Hope, PA	3.0	2.5	2718	$6,800	$2.50	11d	1	1.13mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $375 · $4,500/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $896,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $896,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $896,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $896,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $896,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $896,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $896,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $896,000 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $896,000 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $896,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $896,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $896,000 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $896,000 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $896,000 Active 37 DOM
15. 2026-04-24
    listed $896,000 Active 2985-char remark
16. 2009-04-29
    historical
17. 2008-04-29
    listed $699,990
18. 2008-04-11
    historical
19. 2008-01-27
    listed $699,000
20. 2007-07-28
    listed $899,900
21. 2007-07-28
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $15,569 · $1,297/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $18,940 · $1,578/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,370/yr (+$281/mo · 21.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $249,421
• − Mortgage interest: −$50,190
• − Property taxes: −$15,569
• − Insurance: −$4,480
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$19,954
• − Management: −$19,954
• − HOA: −$4,500
• − Depreciation: −$26,065
• Taxable income: $108,709
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$26,090
• After-tax cash flow: $90,018/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Hunterdon Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3400769
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $82,621
• Composite: 27.54/100
• National rank: #6948
• State rank: #335 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Lambertville

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #168
• US rank: #4460

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lambertville, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 8,146

Population outlook (Hunterdon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,644 people
• By 2030: 121,131 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 117,753 · -4.0%
• By 2050: 112,601 · -8.2%
• By 2075: 104,371 · -14.9%
• By 2100: 93,364 · -23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Iranian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunterdon

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.7) · D 45.7% · R 52.4% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.7pp toward D · 2008: -13.3pp · 2024: -6.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.7 2020: R+4.4 2016: R+13.8 2012: R+18.8 2008: R+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -193.68%
• Current HPI: 226.5618
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-0.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $896,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-04-29 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2008-04-29 Listed $699,990 BRIGHT MLS
• 2008-04-11 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2008-01-27 Listed $699,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-07-28 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-07-28 Listed $899,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $15,569 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.