850 N Jefferson Ave · Ajo, AZ 85321

$115,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,410 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 124 Days on market

Built 1965 6,986 sqft lot $82/sqft · 33% above area Est $86k · 33% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Centrally located in historic Ajo, this freshly updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home blends modern upgrades with classic charm. Recent improvements include new flooring, granite kitchen countertops, mini-split HVAC, and updated bathrooms featuring stand-up showers and newer vanities. Step outside to a fully fenced yard with a spacious covered patio, additional shaded workspace, and an enclosed metal shop--perfect for hobbies, storage, or projects. Enjoy ideal east-west exposure for beautiful natural light and mountain views. With an RV gate and ample street parking, this home is both practical and welcoming.

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Mini-split hvac
• Updated bathrooms

Tags

• GRANITE KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS
• MINI-SPLIT HVAC
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• COVERED PATIO
• ENCLOSED METAL SHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $480 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 6.9% in Ajo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#115 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute D-.
• Ajo Unified District (4409) (town): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #343 of 501 in AZ (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $115k implies a 360% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.90%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $86,240
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: 33.35%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
601 N Thompson Ave	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,370 (-3%)	1mo	$157,000	$115	76
230 W 1st Ave	0.32mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,400 (-1%)	3mo	$215,000	$154	75
600 N Thompson Ave	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-1%)	12mo	$153,000	$109	71
321 W 3rd Ave	0.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,426 (+1%)	13mo	$140,000	$98	70
411 W North St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,321 (-6%)	3mo	$155,000	$117	67
330 W 6th St	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,541 (+9%)	3mo	$178,000	$116	63
361 W Placer St	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-14%)	5mo	$147,000	$121	59
251 W 8th St	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,321 (-6%)	6mo	$210,000	$159	58
520 W Rocalla Ave	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,217 (-14%)	8mo	$145,000	$119	52
500 W Rocalla Ave	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,254 (-11%)	12mo	$154,900	$124	47
310 E 1st Ave	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,205 (-14%)	4mo	$145,000	$120	39
141 W LA Mina Ave	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,611 (+14%)	3mo	$185,200	$115	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $11,937
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $49,695
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85321

• Home prices YoY: -5.6%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,518 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $815/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $480

Break-even live

Break-even rent $910

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $545	-5% $513	+0% $480	+5% $448	+10% $415
Rent	-10% $360	-5% $420	+0% $480	+5% $540	+10% $600
Rate	-1.0pp $538	-0.5pp $510	base $480	+0.5pp $451	+1.0pp $420

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $115,000 Active 124 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 123 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 122 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 121 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 120 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $115,000 Active 118 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $115,000 Active 117 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 114 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   price $115,000 Active 113 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $123,900 Active 113 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $123,900 Active 112 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $123,900 Active 111 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $123,900 Active 108 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $123,900 Active 107 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $123,900 Active 106 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $123,900 Active 105 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $123,900 Active 104 DOM
18. 2026-04-08
    price $123,900 612-char remark

    Show marketing remark (612 chars)

    Centrally located in historic Ajo, this freshly updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home blends modern upgrades with classic charm. Recent improvements include new flooring, granite kitchen countertops, mini-split HVAC, and updated bathrooms featuring stand-up showers and newer vanities. Step outside to a fully fenced yard with a spacious covered patio, additional shaded workspace, and an enclosed metal shop--perfect for hobbies, storage, or projects. Enjoy ideal east-west exposure for beautiful natural light and mountain views. With an RV gate and ample street parking, this home is both practical and welcoming.

19. 2026-03-16
    price $124,900 612-char remark

    Show marketing remark (612 chars)

    Centrally located in historic Ajo, this freshly updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home blends modern upgrades with classic charm. Recent improvements include new flooring, granite kitchen countertops, mini-split HVAC, and updated bathrooms featuring stand-up showers and newer vanities. Step outside to a fully fenced yard with a spacious covered patio, additional shaded workspace, and an enclosed metal shop--perfect for hobbies, storage, or projects. Enjoy ideal east-west exposure for beautiful natural light and mountain views. With an RV gate and ample street parking, this home is both practical and welcoming.

20. 2026-02-15
    listed $125,000 Active 612-char remark

    Show marketing remark (612 chars)

    Centrally located in historic Ajo, this freshly updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home blends modern upgrades with classic charm. Recent improvements include new flooring, granite kitchen countertops, mini-split HVAC, and updated bathrooms featuring stand-up showers and newer vanities. Step outside to a fully fenced yard with a spacious covered patio, additional shaded workspace, and an enclosed metal shop--perfect for hobbies, storage, or projects. Enjoy ideal east-west exposure for beautiful natural light and mountain views. With an RV gate and ample street parking, this home is both practical and welcoming.

21. 2026-02-01
    historical
22. 2026-01-17
    price $125,000
23. 2025-08-01
    listed $140,000 Active
24. 2024-03-01
    historical
25. 2023-08-31
    status Active
26. 2023-08-15
    historical
27. 2023-08-02
    price $118,000
28. 2023-07-31
    price $110,000
29. 2023-02-18
    listed $118,000 Active
30. 1983-02-18
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $815 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $815 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,217
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$815
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,457
• − Management: −$1,457
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $4,125
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$990
• After-tax cash flow: $4,775/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ajo Unified District (4409)
• NCES district ID: 0400520
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $34,237
• Composite: 23.59/100
• National rank: #13264
• State rank: #343 of 501 in AZ

Livability — Ajo

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #115
• US rank: #15321

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D- Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ajo, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 4,313

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 19% Native American 15% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 15% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.38%
• Current HPI: 173.7704
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+395.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $123,900 ARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $124,900 ARMLS
• 2026-02-15 Listed $125,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-01-17 Price Changed $125,000 ARMLS
• 2025-08-01 Listed $140,000 ARMLS
• 2024-03-01 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2023-08-31 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2023-08-15 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2023-08-02 Price Changed $118,000 MLSSAZ
• 2023-07-31 Price Changed $110,000 MLSSAZ
• 2023-02-18 Listed $118,000 MLSSAZ
• 1983-02-18 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $815 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.