153 Sunset Rd · Manchester, NJ 08759

$125,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,009 sqft · Townhouse · 243 Days on market

55+ age-restricted Built 1980 Fair condition 5,227 sqft lot $124/sqft · 38% below area Est $202k · 38% under $146/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Turnkey investment opportunity in sought-after Crestwood Village 6, one of the few fee simple 55+ communities ideally situated between the beaches of Long Beach Island and within easy reach of both New York City and Philadelphia. 153-A Sunset Drive offers a rare chance to acquire a well-maintained property with a tenant already in place for the next 17 months at $1,080/month, providing immediate cash flow and reliable income from day one. With annual taxes of $3,510 and a low $146/month HOA, this property delivers a cap rate of approximately 6.2% (cash purchase) — a solid return in a stable rental market. Perfect for investors seeking steady income or future downsizers who want to lock in a property now at a steep discount and enjoy rental income while planning their next move. Crestwood Village 6 offers an active adult lifestyle, convenient amenities, and easy access to major highways, shopping, and the Jersey Shore. Don’t miss this unique combination of affordability, security, and long-term upside in one of Ocean County’s most desirable 55+ neighborhoods.

Key facts

• Convenient amenities
• $146 HOA
• Parking

Tags

• WELL MAINTAINED PROPERTY
• CONVENIENT AMENITIES
• EASY ACCESS TO MAJOR HIGHWAYS
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• EASY ACCESS TO JERSEY SHORE

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $125,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$201,734) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $125k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $326 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 3.8% in Manchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Whiting Elementary School (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #582 of 1,303 statewide, top 49%, 301 students, 25% FRL); Manchester Township Middle School (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #226 of 431 statewide, top 55%, 582 students, 41% FRL); Manchester Township High School (math 21% / reading 38%, grade F, #290 of 399 statewide, top 74%, 959 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: 891 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 53d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 243 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $125k implies a 178% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 243 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.19%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $201,734
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -38.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9B Ardsley Ave	0.29mi	2/1.5 (+1)	1,076 (+7%)	12mo	$185,000	$172	58
13-C Alpine Rd Sec	0.23mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,098 (+9%)	24mo	$140,000	$128	50
4-B Greenwood Ln	0.31mi	2/1.5 (+1)	1,184 (+17%)	9mo	$239,000	$202	46
5-A Greenwood Ln	0.36mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,184 (+17%)	12mo	$210,000	$177	43
5 Stonybrook Ct Unit A	0.67mi	2/1.5 (+1)	1,080 (+7%)	12mo	$230,000	$213	40
16 Partridge Pl	0.81mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,152 (+14%)	2mo	$60,000	$52	34
53-B Sunset Rd	0.70mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,113 (+10%)	22mo	$225,000	$202	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $644
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $27,793
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 0 active · 4 under contract
• Months of supply: 0.0 mo

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 891
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,691 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$146
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $326

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,278

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $413	-5% $370	+0% $326	+5% $283	+10% $240
Rent	-10% $193	-5% $260	+0% $326	+5% $393	+10% $460
Rate	-1.0pp $389	-0.5pp $358	base $326	+0.5pp $294	+1.0pp $261

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4 Autumn Ct Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	48d	1	0.60mi
— Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1141	$1,700	$1.49	59d	1	0.62mi
88 Beaver Ave Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	991	$1,600	$1.61	21d	1	0.71mi
123 Woodchuck Pkwy Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1141	$1,700	$1.49	19d	1	0.73mi
7 Teal Ct Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	53d	1	0.74mi
94 Beaver Ave Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	991	$1,600	$1.61	20d	1	0.74mi
57D Milford Ave Unit 53 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.0	880	$1,800	$2.05	73d	1	1.00mi
19B Maplewood Dr #52 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.5	1109	$2,250	$2.03	66d	1	1.29mi

HOA detail $146/mo · $1,752/yr

• Likely covers: security

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $125,000 Active 243 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 242 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 239 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 238 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 237 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 236 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 234 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 230 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 229 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 228 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 225 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 224 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 223 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 222 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 221 DOM
16. 2025-10-22
    listed $125,000 Active 1092-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1092 chars)

    Turnkey investment opportunity in sought-after Crestwood Village 6, one of the few fee simple 55+ communities ideally situated between the beaches of Long Beach Island and within easy reach of both New York City and Philadelphia. 153-A Sunset Drive offers a rare chance to acquire a well-maintained property with a tenant already in place for the next 17 months at $1,080/month, providing immediate cash flow and reliable income from day one. With annual taxes of $3,510 and a low $146/month HOA, this property delivers a cap rate of approximately 6.2% (cash purchase) — a solid return in a stable rental market. Perfect for investors seeking steady income or future downsizers who want to lock in a property now at a steep discount and enjoy rental income while planning their next move. Crestwood Village 6 offers an active adult lifestyle, convenient amenities, and easy access to major highways, shopping, and the Jersey Shore. Don’t miss this unique combination of affordability, security, and long-term upside in one of Ocean County’s most desirable 55+ neighborhoods.

17. 1998-06-02
    soldstatus $45,000 279-char remark

    Show marketing remark (279 chars)

    RT 530 TO CONGASIA TO L ON SUNSET YELLOW HOUSE ON RIGHT ONE BLOCK TO CLUBHOUSE BRAND NEW WINDOWS, NEW STOVE, NEW KIT SINK, BEAUTIFU 10X16 PORCH FLRD RM COULD BE GUEST RM NEW LINO IN KIT. NEW ATTIC FAN, SPRIN ON WELL BEAUTIFUL WOODED YARD FOR PRIVACY CALL OWNER FIRST THEN LOCKBOX

18. 1998-05-04
    historical 279-char remark

    Show marketing remark (279 chars)

    RT 530 TO CONGASIA TO L ON SUNSET YELLOW HOUSE ON RIGHT ONE BLOCK TO CLUBHOUSE BRAND NEW WINDOWS, NEW STOVE, NEW KIT SINK, BEAUTIFU 10X16 PORCH FLRD RM COULD BE GUEST RM NEW LINO IN KIT. NEW ATTIC FAN, SPRIN ON WELL BEAUTIFUL WOODED YARD FOR PRIVACY CALL OWNER FIRST THEN LOCKBOX

19. 1998-04-20
    soldstatus $36,500
20. 1998-02-22
    historical
21. 1997-11-06
    listed $40,900
22. 1997-10-23
    listed $48,900 279-char remark

    Show marketing remark (279 chars)

    RT 530 TO CONGASIA TO L ON SUNSET YELLOW HOUSE ON RIGHT ONE BLOCK TO CLUBHOUSE BRAND NEW WINDOWS, NEW STOVE, NEW KIT SINK, BEAUTIFU 10X16 PORCH FLRD RM COULD BE GUEST RM NEW LINO IN KIT. NEW ATTIC FAN, SPRIN ON WELL BEAUTIFUL WOODED YARD FOR PRIVACY CALL OWNER FIRST THEN LOCKBOX

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,296
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,624
• − Management: −$1,624
• − HOA: −$1,752
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $2,159
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$518
• After-tax cash flow: $3,398/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $25,225–$45,405 screening

This property requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen and bathrooms, which will significantly increase its value for both resale and rental.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen cabinets — dated and worn
• Major kitchen countertops — dated and worn
• Major kitchen appliances — dated and worn
• Major bathroom fixtures — dated and worn
• Major bathroom tile — dated and worn

Value-add opportunities

• Both update kitchen — modern kitchen will attract both buyers and renters ↑
• Both update bathrooms — modern bathrooms will attract both buyers and renters ↑
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint will improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 34/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Whiting Elementary School F NJ #582/1,303 Nat'l #23,081/41,679 Middle Manchester Township Middle School F NJ #226/431 Nat'l #7,065/14,009 High Manchester Township High School F NJ #290/399 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Manchester

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crestwood Village, NJ
• County: Ocean · 586,991 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290
• Household income: $55,000
• Rent vs Own: 12.1% rent · 87.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+155.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-22 Listed $125,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1998-06-02 Sold (MLS) $45,000 MOMLS
• 1998-05-04 Delisted — MOMLS
• 1998-04-20 Sold (MLS) $36,500 MOMLS
• 1998-02-22 Delisted — MOMLS
• 1997-11-06 Listed $40,900 MOMLS
• 1997-10-23 Listed $48,900 MOMLS