818 D St · Vader, WA 98593

$119,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Other public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1977 6,098 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Please use Danni Wicken at Fidelity in [email protected]

Key facts

• Heat pump
• Ample parking
• 6,098 sq ft lot

Tags

• HEAT PUMP
• AMPLE PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property condition listed as fair
• Financial info: Acceptable financing: Cash, Conventional, FHA
• HOA & community: No HOA information listed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Uncovered parking for 3 vehicles; RV parking available
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Electric energy source; Public water (Lewis County); Sewer connected (Lewis County); Power provided by Lewis PUD
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; One story; Manufactured on land
• Construction: Metal/vinyl construction; Composition roof; Built in 1977 (effective year); Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Metal/vinyl exterior; Paved lot; RV parking

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes microwave, refrigerator, and stove/range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: One three-quarter bathroom with shower (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump provides heating and cooling
• Interior features: Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry equipment listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $80 ($954/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $104k (13.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $104k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 1.6% in Vader — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#445 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Castle Rock School District (town): math 36% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #174 of 291 in WA (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Castle Rock High School (449 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 265 units permitted in Lewis County in 2024 (44 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($829 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
• Lewis County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $120k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $104,002 (13.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.84%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $8,065
• Equity at exit: $41,779

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $36,894
• Equity at exit: $56,181

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98593

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,040 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $760/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$218
• Net cashflow: $80

Break-even live

Break-even rent $939

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $147	-5% $113	+0% $80	+5% $46	+10% $12
Rent	-10% $-3	-5% $38	+0% $80	+5% $121	+10% $162
Rate	-1.0pp $140	-0.5pp $110	base $80	+0.5pp $48	+1.0pp $17

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $119,900 Pending 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   remarks 244-char remark
3. 2026-06-02
   listed $119,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $760 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,175 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: +$415/yr (+$35/mo · 54.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,480
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$760
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$998
• − Management: −$998
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable loss: −$1,081
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$259
• After-tax cash flow: $1,214/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Castle Rock School District
• NCES district ID: 5300990
• Math proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $51,823
• Composite: 41.78/100
• National rank: #7162
• State rank: #174 of 291 in WA

Livability — Vader

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #445
• US rank: #18163

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vader, WA
• Population (ZIP): 1,676

Population outlook (Lewis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 75,749 people
• By 2030: 74,647 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 71,310 · -5.9%
• By 2050: 67,748 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 59,829 · -21.0%
• By 2100: 52,293 · -31.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Native American 3% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Hungarian 7% Portuguese 5% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lewis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.0) · D 32.0% · R 65.0% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.8pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -33.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.0 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+36.2 2012: R+23.5 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.14%
• Current HPI: 260.68
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+199.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $119,900 RMLS
• 2026-06-01 Listed $119,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $760 · -5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.