304 Butler St · Arp, TX 75750

$112,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,472 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1957

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 1957
• Listed 4 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Oakland Hill
• Financial info: Annual tax: $1,114
• HOA & community: HOA information not provided

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Security: Security information not provided
• Utilities: Utilities information not provided
• Home design: Single family detached residence; Single-story
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Vinyl siding; Aluminum/metal roof; Built year not provided; Foundation information not provided
• Exterior features: Front porch; Chain link fencing; Storage structure on property

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms information not provided
• Flooring: Flooring information not provided
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Gas oven; Gas range; Ceiling fans; Central air
• Laundry & utility: Laundry/utility information not provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $112k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $112 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $112k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#442 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Arp ISD (rural): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #400 of 826 in TX (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Arp El (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 473 students, 60% FRL); Arp J H (math 30% / reading 45%, grade F, #736 of 1,662 statewide, top 45%, 219 students, 62% FRL); Arp H S (math 72% / reading 57%, grade B-, #199 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 293 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($774 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.29%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.18×
• Total profit: $68,230
• Equity at exit: $100,898

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.23×
• Total profit: $195,480
• Equity at exit: $217,591

Cash invested: $31,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75750

• Home prices YoY: 12.3%
• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,261 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$587
• Tax from tax record: −$250 /mo · $2,998/yr
• Insurance: −$47
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $112

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,119

Max offer price $112,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $176	-5% $144	+0% $112	+5% $80	+10% $49
Rent	-10% $13	-5% $62	+0% $112	+5% $162	+10% $212
Rate	-1.0pp $169	-0.5pp $141	base $112	+0.5pp $83	+1.0pp $54

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,000
• Closing costs: $3,360
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $112,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $112,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $112,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $112,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $112,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,998 · $250/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,998 · $250/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,129
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,274
• − Property taxes: −$2,998
• − Insurance: −$560
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,210
• − Management: −$1,210
• − Depreciation: −$3,258
• Taxable loss: −$381
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$91
• After-tax cash flow: $1,438/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Arp ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808730
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,075
• Composite: 34.58/100
• National rank: #5165
• State rank: #400 of 826 in TX

Livability — Arp

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #442
• US rank: #9054

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Arp, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,246

Population outlook (Smith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,890 people
• By 2030: 261,665 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 286,114 · +15.0%
• By 2050: 308,006 · +23.8%
• By 2075: 354,171 · +42.3%
• By 2100: 372,828 · +49.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 12% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Portuguese 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Smith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 27.0% · R 72.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -45.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+39.4 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 32.45%
• Current HPI: 296.73
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Listed $112,000 GTAR
• 2002-04-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,998 · +14.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.