3218 Timberlark Dr · Houston, TX 77339

$175,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,233 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1980 7,749 sqft lot Est $297k · 41% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0

Listing remarks

This two-story traditional home in Kingwood’s Hunters Ridge Village features 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms across 2,233 square feet of living space. Built in 1980, the residence includes a living room on the first floor and an additional living area on the second floor. All bedrooms are positioned within a layout that includes two full bathrooms and one powder room. The property is situated on an approximate 7,750 square foot lot and features a detached two-car garage. The exterior provides a fenced backyard equipped with a two-story wooden deck. Located in Harris County and zoned to Humble ISD, the home offers access to local greenbelt trails and is positioned near Northpark Drive for c

Key facts

• Zoned to humble isd
• Fenced backyard
• 7,749 sq ft lot

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• TWO STORY WOODEN DECK
• LOCAL GREENBELT TRAILS
• ZONED TO HUMBLE ISD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $54 ($644/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bear Branch El (math 48% / reading 57%, grade C-, #720 of 4,322 statewide, top 17%, 666 students, 20% FRL); Creekwood Middle (math 49% / reading 50%, grade C, #356 of 1,662 statewide, top 23%, 1,149 students, 21% FRL); Kingwood H S (math 60% / reading 71%, grade B, #193 of 1,632 statewide, top 12%, 2,898 students, 16% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 56% at this address vs 41% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Humble ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 311 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $835 appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $59k; list at $175k implies a 197% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,375 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.32%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $296,989
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3211 Park Garden Dr	0.04mi	4/2.0	2,233 (0%)	1mo	$289,999	$130	96
3215 Park Garden Dr	0.03mi	4/2.5	2,376 (+6%)	2mo	$319,900	$135	86
3747 Clear Falls Dr	0.26mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,251 (+1%)	1mo	$240,000	$107	78
3815 Brook Shadow Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0	2,234 (0%)	3mo	$304,500	$136	63
3619 Haven Pines Dr	0.59mi	4/2.5	2,373 (+6%)	2mo	$269,000	$113	60
3215 Falling Brook Dr	0.68mi	4/2.5	2,373 (+6%)	0mo	$289,900	$122	58
3311 Knoll Manor Dr	0.61mi	4/2.5	2,058 (-8%)	2mo	$310,000	$151	57
3626 Bear Lake Dr	0.63mi	4/2.5	2,052 (-8%)	1mo	$345,000	$168	56
3907 Holly Green Ct	0.57mi	4/2.0	2,035 (-9%)	0mo	$269,786	$133	56
3126 Holly Green Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,997 (-11%)	2mo	$260,000	$130	52
3115 Knoll Manor Dr	0.67mi	4/2.5	2,485 (+11%)	0mo	$329,900	$133	49
3618 Riverwood Park Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,997 (-11%)	1mo	$269,990	$135	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.48% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-3,581
• Equity at exit: $55,028

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $6,284
• Equity at exit: $69,611

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77339

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 311
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,085 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$561 /mo · $6,730/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $54

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,017

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $153	-5% $103	+0% $54	+5% $4	+10% $-45
Rent	-10% $-111	-5% $-29	+0% $54	+5% $136	+10% $218
Rate	-1.0pp $142	-0.5pp $98	base $54	+0.5pp $8	+1.0pp $-38

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3714 Windy Haven Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,799	$1.24	44d	1	0.21mi
3619 Maple Glen Dr Kingwood, TX	4.0	2.0	2332	$2,149	$0.92	17d	1	0.39mi
3806 Village Oaks Dr Kingwood, TX	4.0	2.5	2465	$2,300	$0.93	22d	1	0.75mi
3918 Forest Village Dr Kingwood, TX	4.0	2.5	2354	$2,350	$1.00	25d	1	0.80mi
3007 Birch Creek Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1603	$1,795	$1.12	25d	1	0.80mi
4535 Echo Falls Dr Kingwood, TX	4.0	2.5	2184	$2,145	$0.98	2d	1	0.82mi
3122 Birch Creek Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1446	$1,624	$1.12	25d	1	0.82mi
3334 Birch Creek Dr Kingwood, TX	5.0	3.5	2950	$2,695	$0.91	44d	1	0.86mi
3303 Sycamore Springs Dr Kingwood, TX	4.0	2.5	2010	$2,006	$1.00	6d	1	0.97mi
3327 Sycamore Springs Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1619	$1,575	$0.97	19d	1	0.98mi
3327 Sycamore Springs Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1619	$1,683	$1.04	22d	1	0.98mi
4031 Sherwood St W Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1541	$1,850	$1.20	44d	1	1.09mi
2215 Silver Falls Dr Kingwood, TX	4.0	2.0	2004	$2,075	$1.04	44d	1	1.21mi
5110 Shady Gardens Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	3.0	1548	$1,800	$1.16	6d	1	1.22mi
2222 Riverford Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	3.0	1908	$1,895	$0.99	25d	1	1.24mi
2315 Shadbury Ct Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1487	$1,725	$1.16	44d	1	1.34mi
3514 Creek Manor Dr Kingwood, TX	4.0	2.5	2274	$1,995	$0.88	44d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-01-13
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-29
   listed $175,000 Active
3. 2025-06-24
   status Pending
4. 2025-06-15
   status Pending
5. 2025-06-04
   status Option Pending
6. 2025-05-20
   historical
7. 2025-05-13
   price $214,000
8. 2025-05-02
   listed $217,000 Active
9. 2025-05-01
   listed $217,000 Active
10. 2025-05-01
    historical
11. 2025-05-01
    historical
12. 2025-02-05
    historical
13. 2025-01-17
    status Active
14. 2024-12-29
    status Pending
15. 2024-12-29
    listed $217,000 Active
16. 2024-12-29
    historical
17. 2024-12-29
    price $217,000
18. 2024-12-06
    historical
19. 2024-11-08
    status Active
20. 2024-10-11
    status Pending
21. 2024-10-04
    status Option Pending
22. 2024-09-27
    listed $216,900 Active
23. 2022-08-05
    soldstatus Sold
24. 2022-08-05
    soldstatus
25. 2022-07-16
    status Pending
26. 2022-07-08
    status Option Pending
27. 2022-07-08
    price $279,000
28. 2022-06-30
    price $2,510
29. 2022-06-28
    status Active
30. 2022-06-23
    status Option Pending
31. 2022-06-16
    status Active
32. 2022-06-13
    status Option Pending
33. 2022-06-08
    listed $280,000 Active
34. 2006-04-17
    soldstatus
35. 1990-02-01
    soldstatus $59,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,730 · $561/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,730 · $561/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,021
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$6,730
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,002
• − Management: −$2,002
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$1,986
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$477
• After-tax cash flow: $1,121/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,538
• Household income: $84,102
• Rent vs Own: 44.1% rent · 55.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2198.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 13% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.48%
• Current HPI: 233.4147
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.59%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+196.6% since first listed

35 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-12-29 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-06-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-06-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-05-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-13 Price Changed $214,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-02 Listed $217,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-01 Listed $217,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-01 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2025-05-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-02-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-01-17 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-12-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-12-29 Price Changed $217,000 HARMLS
• 2024-12-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-12-29 Listed $217,000 HARMLS
• 2024-12-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-11-08 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-10-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-10-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-09-27 Listed $216,900 HARMLS
• 2022-08-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-08-05 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-07-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-07-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-07-08 Price Changed $279,000 HARMLS
• 2022-06-30 Price Changed $2,510 RENT.
• 2022-06-28 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2022-06-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-06-16 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2022-06-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-06-08 Listed $280,000 HARMLS
• 2006-04-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1990-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $59,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,730 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.