11919 Detar Ct · Willis, TX 77378

$169,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,023 sqft · SingleFamily · 133 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $166/sqft · 7% above area Est $159k · 7% over $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• ARV discount +4.5/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

REMARKABLE NEW D.R. HORTON BUILT 1 STORY IN WILLIAM TRAILS! Lovely Elevation with Covered Front Porch! Smart Home Features! Large Living Area is Open to Fantastic Kitchen with Granite Counters and Stainless Appliances! Privately Located Primary Suite Features Lovely Bathroom & Walk-In Closet! Generously Sized Secondary Bedrooms! Convenient Utility Room! Great Community! Zoned to Willis ISD! Estimated Completion Spring 2026!

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 133 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $185 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.7% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D+.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 710 active listings in the ZIP; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $149,591 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.67%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $159,490
• List price: $169,990
• Delta: 6.58%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11943 Detar Ct	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,023 (0%)	0mo	$159,990	$156	100
11923 Detar Ct	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,023 (0%)	0mo	$164,990	$161	100
11926 Detar Ct	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,023 (0%)	2mo	$174,990	$171	99
11951 Detar Ct	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,023 (0%)	2mo	$174,990	$171	98
14526 William Trails Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,023 (0%)	5mo	$167,990	$164	95
14542 William Trails Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,023 (0%)	6mo	$170,990	$167	93
14562 William Trails Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,023 (0%)	6mo	$168,990	$165	91
14566 William Trails Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,023 (0%)	8mo	$169,990	$166	89
14606 William Trails Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,023 (0%)	7mo	$167,990	$164	87
12098 William Trails Cir	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,023 (0%)	3mo	$176,004	$172	86
12019 William Trails Cir	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,002 (-2%)	5mo	$170,000	$170	82
12015 William Trails Cir	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,023 (0%)	9mo	$164,990	$161	82

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-19,237
• Equity at exit: $25,346

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-15,286
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77378

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 710
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,775 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$212 /mo · $2,550/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $185

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,540

Max offer price $169,990

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,498
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,990 Active 133 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,990 Active 132 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,990 Active 131 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,990 Active 130 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,990 Active 128 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,990 Active 124 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,990 Active 123 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,990 Active 122 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $169,990 Active 119 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,990 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,990 Active 117 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,990 Active 116 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,990 Active 115 DOM
14. 2026-04-21
    price $169,990 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    REMARKABLE NEW D.R. HORTON BUILT 1 STORY IN WILLIAM TRAILS! Lovely Elevation with Covered Front Porch! Smart Home Features! Large Living Area is Open to Fantastic Kitchen with Granite Counters and Stainless Appliances! Privately Located Primary Suite Features Lovely Bathroom & Walk-In Closet! Generously Sized Secondary Bedrooms! Convenient Utility Room! Great Community! Zoned to Willis ISD! Estimated Completion Spring 2026!

15. 2026-02-05
    listed $174,990 Active 434-char remark

    Show marketing remark (434 chars)

    REMARKABLE NEW D.R. HORTON BUILT 1 STORY IN WILLIAM TRAILS! Lovely Elevation with Covered Front Porch! Smart Home Features! Large Living Area is Open to Fantastic Kitchen with Granite Counters and Stainless Appliances! Privately Located Primary Suite Features Lovely Bathroom & Walk-In Closet! Generously Sized Secondary Bedrooms! Convenient Utility Room! Great Community! Zoned to Willis ISD! Estimated Completion Spring 2026!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,295
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,522
• − Property taxes: −$2,550
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,704
• − Management: −$1,704
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$483
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$116
• After-tax cash flow: $2,338/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is move-in ready with excellent condition and a great location in William Trails. It offers a modern and well-maintained interior with a fresh exterior and landscaping.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping front yard — Improves curb appeal and rental value
• Both Install smart home features — Enhances home's marketability and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping front yard — Improves curb appeal and rental value ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Enhances home's marketability and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,629
• Household income: $71,143
• Rent vs Own: 25.5% rent · 74.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.25%
• Current HPI: 261.9673
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $169,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $174,990 HARMLS