6393 E Townline Rd · Williamson, NY 14589

$119,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,028 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 115 Days on market

Built 1920 9,148 sqft lot $117/sqft · 35% below area Est $185k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ATTENTION FLIPPERS, LANDLORDS or anyone who wants an affordable home to fix up and call their own. 3 Bedroom Colonial with rear deck and front enclosed porch awaits you! The home is in overall fair condition but will need some cosmetics! Currently has NO central heating system. Using space heaters. Nice floor plan with large living room and dining areas. 3 bedrooms and full bath up! Vinyl sided! 2 car garage needs work! PUBLIC WATER AND SEWER! Thermopane windows, 1st floor laundry! Cash, rehab or investor loans only.

Key facts

• 9,148 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1920

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $194 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $109k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#141 in NY, #2,196 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F.
• Williamson Central School District (rural): math 51% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #363 of 590 in NY (top 62%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 259 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $120k implies a 73% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $109,109 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.92%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $185,000
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: -35.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6356 Pearl St	0.10mi	3/1.0	912 (-11%)	6mo	$185,000	$203	72
5159 Ridge Rd	0.44mi	3/1.5	1,056 (+3%)	20mo	$139,000	$132	57
5162 Ridge Rd	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,120 (+9%)	8mo	$180,000	$161	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-6,963
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $10,351
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14589

• Home prices YoY: -19.4%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,516 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$325 /mo · $3,905/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $194

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,271

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $262	-5% $228	+0% $194	+5% $160	+10% $126
Rent	-10% $74	-5% $134	+0% $194	+5% $254	+10% $313
Rate	-1.0pp $254	-0.5pp $224	base $194	+0.5pp $163	+1.0pp $131

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 115 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 114 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 113 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $119,900 Active 109 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Active 106 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   price $119,900 Active 105 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $98,500 Active 105 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $98,500 Active 104 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $98,500 Active 102 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $98,500 Active 100 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $98,500 Active 99 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $98,500 Active 98 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $98,500 Active 97 DOM
16. 2026-02-23
    listed $98,500 Active 522-char remark

    Show marketing remark (522 chars)

    ATTENTION FLIPPERS, LANDLORDS or anyone who wants an affordable home to fix up and call their own. 3 Bedroom Colonial with rear deck and front enclosed porch awaits you! The home is in overall fair condition but will need some cosmetics! Currently has NO central heating system. Using space heaters. Nice floor plan with large living room and dining areas. 3 bedrooms and full bath up! Vinyl sided! 2 car garage needs work! PUBLIC WATER AND SEWER! Thermopane windows, 1st floor laundry! Cash, rehab or investor loans only.

17. 2004-07-13
    soldstatus $69,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,905 · $325/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,905 · $325/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,194
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$3,905
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,456
• − Management: −$1,456
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $575
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$138
• After-tax cash flow: $2,186/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Williamson Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3631440
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $56,080
• Composite: 43.79/100
• National rank: #2937
• State rank: #363 of 590 in NY

Livability — Williamson

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #141
• US rank: #2196

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,904

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 85,662 people
• By 2030: 81,945 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 73,735 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 65,029 · -24.1%
• By 2075: 47,451 · -44.6%
• By 2100: 31,574 · -63.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 13% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 38.5% · R 61.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.43%
• Current HPI: 234.0889
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+41.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-23 Listed $98,500 UNYREIS
• 2004-07-13 Sold (Public Records) $69,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,905 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.