Is 4321 Valley Brook Dr in Fort Worth, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D with a 4.8% cap rate and $-402/mo modeled cash flow at a $324,500 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 4321 Valley Brook Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 4.8% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,401/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D Composite 40.05

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +15.0/15.0
Cash flow +7.5/30.0
Livability +4.0/5.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Rent growth +3.1/5.0
1% rule +2.4/10.0
Schools +2.4/10.0
DSCR +1.6/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$324,500

4321 Valley Brook Dr · Fort Worth, TX 76036

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,446 sqft · SingleFamily · 123 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 4,792 sqft lot Garage $224/sqft · 28% below area Est $448k · 28% under $56/mo HOA · 2% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

5% lender incentive offered with the use of the seller’s in-house lender, Homeward Mortgage! Incentive may be used towards buyer closing costs and or rate buy-down, subject to lender approval and buyer qualification. * * Tour this home anytime - no appointment or agent needed. Simply verify your ID at the door and explore on your own schedule, 7 days a week. The Tupelo is a single story home that offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and approx 1,449 sq. ft. of living space. As you enter the long foyer, you'll pass both secondary bedrooms, as well as the secondary bathroom. The secondary bedrooms both feature large walk in closets.

Key facts

Open concept kitchen
Large covered patio
Granite countertops

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $324k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-402 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (17.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (26.0% below list).
Recommended offer: $240k (26.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.9% in Fort Worth — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
Crowley ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #643 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Mary Harris El (math 27% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 389 students, 87% FRL); H F Stevens Middle (math 16% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,387 of 1,662 statewide, top 85%, 747 students, 84% FRL); Crowley H S (math 23% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 2,351 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 52% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 1275 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 38d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $240,084 (26.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.74% ✗
Cap rate: 4.81%
Cash-on-cash: -5.31%
DSCR: 0.76
GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $448,018
List price: $324,500
Delta: -27.57%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11133 Lone Ranger Ln	1.43mi	3/2.0	1,448 (+0%)	1mo	$309,990	$214	64
5024 Cervinae Rd	1.44mi	3/2.0	1,420 (-2%)	2mo	$289,990	$204	60
10620 Diamond Mine Dr	1.33mi	3/2.5	1,405 (-3%)	2mo	$302,990	$216	57
2224 Bakersfield Dr	1.38mi	3/2.0	1,328 (-8%)	1mo	$296,990	$224	50
2209 Waylon Dr	1.40mi	3/2.0	1,332 (-8%)	2mo	$298,990	$224	50
2212 White Buffalo Way	1.37mi	3/2.0	1,573 (+9%)	1mo	$319,990	$203	49
10760 Bloodstone Dr	1.47mi	3/2.0	1,587 (+10%)	0mo	$319,990	$202	48
2201 Johnny Cash Dr	1.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,606 (+11%)	2mo	$318,290	$198	40
2220 White Buffalo Way	1.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,606 (+11%)	2mo	$319,990	$199	40
10909 Lone Ranger Ln	1.42mi	3/2.0	1,201 (-17%)	1mo	$288,990	$241	39
5045 Wellborn Rd	1.44mi	3/2.5	1,721 (+19%)	0mo	$299,990	$174	38
10616 Diamond Mine Dr	1.34mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,729 (+20%)	1mo	$328,990	$190	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -26.1%
Equity multiple: 0.12×
Total profit: $-79,835
Equity at exit: $48,384

10-year hold

IRR: -25.5%
Equity multiple: -0.20×
Total profit: $-109,176
Equity at exit: $28,057

Cash invested: $90,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 6 active · 5 under contract
Median asking: $307,490 ($195/sqft)
Median days on market: 70 d
This list price: 100% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +59.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76036

Home prices YoY: -25.2%
Rents YoY: 2.3%
Active inventory: 1275
Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,401 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,702
Tax est. 1.5%: −$406 /mo · $4,868/yr
Insurance: −$135
HOA: −$56
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
Net cashflow: $-402

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,910

Max offer price $266,347

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-178	-5% $-290	+0% $-402	+5% $-514	+10% $-626
Rent	-10% $-592	-5% $-497	+0% $-402	+5% $-307	+10% $-212
Rate	-1.0pp $-238	-0.5pp $-319	base $-402	+0.5pp $-486	+1.0pp $-572

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $81,125
Closing costs: $9,735
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6629 Coyote Valley Trl Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1659	$2,250	$1.36	0d	1	0.02mi
4932 Water Lily Ln Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1848	$2,595	$1.40	62d	1	1.42mi
5021 Chital Dr Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1536	$2,200	$1.43	0d	1	1.46mi
5041 Wellborn Rd Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1519	$2,300	$1.51	38d	1	1.47mi

Property features AI

Finance

Financial info: Acceptable financing: Cash or Conventional
HOA & community: Mandatory HOA with annual feeHOA fee includes management feesHOA fee: $675 annuallyHOA management: Terra Trace Residential Community, Inc.

Exterior

Parking: DrivewayAttached garageCovered parking for 2 vehicles2 garage spaces
Utilities: City waterCity sewerNot in a municipal utility district
Home design: Single family residenceResidential propertyOne storyNew construction (completed in 2025)Smart home features
Construction: Brick, siding, and stone veneer exteriorComposition roofSlab foundation
Exterior features: Private yardCovered patio/porch

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherGarbage disposalGas rangeMicrowave
Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms totalPrimary bedroom on level 1 with ensuite bath and walk-in closet
Flooring: CarpetVinyl
Bathrooms: 2 full bathroomsPrimary bathroom with dual sinks and separate shower
Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air
Interior features: Open floorplanEat-in kitchenKitchen islandPantryWalk-in closet(s)7 total roomsOne-level floor plan1 living area1 dining area
Laundry & utility: Utility room

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $324,500 Active 123 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $324,500 Active 121 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $324,500 Active 120 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $324,500 Active 119 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $324,500 Active 118 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $324,500 Active 115 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $324,500 Active 113 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $324,500 Active 112 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $324,500 Active 110 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $324,500 Active 108 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $324,500 Active 107 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $324,500 Active 106 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $324,500 Active 105 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $324,500 Active 104 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $324,500 Active 102 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $324,500 Active 101 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $324,500 Active 100 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $324,500 Active 99 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $324,500 Active 98 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $324,500 Active 97 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $324,500 Active 96 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $324,500 Active 95 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $324,500 Active 94 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $324,500 Active 93 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $324,500 Active 91 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $324,500 Active 90 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $324,500 Active 89 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $324,500 Active 88 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $324,500 Active 87 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $324,500 Active 86 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $324,500 Active 85 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $324,500 Active 84 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $324,500 Active 83 DOM
2026-06-28

pricedays on market $324,500 Active 82 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $325,000 Active 80 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $325,000 Active 78 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $325,000 Active 76 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $325,000 Active 75 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $325,000 Active 72 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $325,000 Active 71 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $325,000 Active 70 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $325,000 Active 69 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $325,000 Active 67 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $325,000 Active 66 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $325,000 Active 63 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $325,000 Active 62 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $325,000 Active 61 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $325,000 Active 58 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $325,000 Active 57 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $325,000 Active 56 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $28,810
− Mortgage interest: −$18,177
− Property taxes: −$4,868
− Insurance: −$1,622
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,305
− Management: −$2,305
− HOA: −$672
− Depreciation: −$9,440
Taxable loss: −$10,579

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,539
After-tax cash flow: $-2,284/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,230–$21,690 screening

This single-story home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with good condition and minimal repairs needed. It's move-in ready with a good curb appeal and potential for value increases through updates.

Value-add opportunities

Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal ↑
Both update flooring — improves both resale and rental value ↑
Both install new windows — increases natural light and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 24/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mary Harris El F TX #3,052/4,322 Nat'l #30,133/41,679 Middle H F Stevens Middle F TX #1,387/1,662 Nat'l #11,464/14,009 High North Crowley H S F TX #1,183/1,632 Nat'l #11,797/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Crowley ISD
NCES district ID: 4815910
Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -15.00%
Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
Median HH income: $59,810
Composite: 25.04/100
National rank: #7549
State rank: #643 of 826 in TX

A Composite livability gradescore 80/100

Livability — Fort Worth

Score: 80/100
State rank: #49
US rank: #1954

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Fort Worth, TX
County: Tarrant County · 2,380,417 people
City population: 911,619
Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Population (ZIP): 36,044
Household income: $97,973
Rent vs Own: 23.7% rent · 76.3% own
Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 20% Two or more races 14% Asian 2%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23% Puerto Rican 2%
Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -80.45%
Current HPI: 238.6365
Rent YoY: ▲ 2.28%
Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

+2.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

2026-06-27 Price Changed $324,500 NTREIS
2026-05-23 Price Changed $325,000 NTREIS
2026-05-05 Price Changed $309,500 NTREIS
2026-04-10 Price Changed $310,000 NTREIS
2026-04-07 Listed $325,000 NTREIS
2026-02-12 Price Changed $306,990 NTREIS
2026-01-08 Listed $316,590 NTREIS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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