4321 Valley Brook Dr · Fort Worth, TX 76036

$325,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,446 sqft · SingleFamily · 75 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 4,792 sqft lot $225/sqft · 27% below area Est $448k · 27% under $56/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

*Seller is willing to assist with closing costs or a rate buy-down through preferred lender with an acceptable offer. * The Tupelo is a single story home that offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and approx 1,449 sq. ft. of living space. As you enter the long foyer, you'll pass both secondary bedrooms, as well as the secondary bathroom. The secondary bedrooms both feature large walk in closets. Next you'll enter the open concept kitchen which features stainless steel appliances with gas cooking range, granite countertops, and a corner walk-in pantry. The large kitchen island overlooks the living room which has plenty of natural lighting. The dining room is next to the kitchen and leads out to the large covered patio. The private main bedroom suite is located off the living room and features a huge walk-in closet and large walk-in shower with ceramic tile surround. Additional features include: tankless water heater; Ceramic tile flooring at Entry, Hallways, Kitchen, Living Room, Utility and Bathrooms; and, full yard sod, landscaping and irrigation. The Tupelo includes our HOME IS CONNECTED base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device.

Key facts

• Open concept kitchen
• Large covered patio
• Granite countertops

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GAS COOKING RANGE
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• CORNER WALK-IN PANTRY
• LARGE COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-465 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (20.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (28.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (28.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F.
• Crowley ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #643 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 1036 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($306k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $232,525 (28.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.13%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $447,671
• List price: $325,000
• Delta: -27.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9220 Union Pacific Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-2%)	10mo	$324,990	$230	88

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-83,887
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-117,669
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76036

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 1036
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,325 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$406 /mo · $4,875/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$56
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$488
• Net cashflow: $-465

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,914

Max offer price $257,706

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-240	-5% $-353	+0% $-465	+5% $-577	+10% $-690
Rent	-10% $-649	-5% $-557	+0% $-465	+5% $-373	+10% $-281
Rate	-1.0pp $-301	-0.5pp $-382	base $-465	+0.5pp $-549	+1.0pp $-635

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4932 Water Lily Ln Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1848	$2,595	$1.40	14d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $56 · $672/yr
• Likely covers: watergaslandscaping

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $325,000 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,000 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,000 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,000 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,000 Active 69 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,000 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,000 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $325,000 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $325,000 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $325,000 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $325,000 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $325,000 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $325,000 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $325,000 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,000 Active 54 DOM
16. 2026-05-05
    price $309,500 1261-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1261 chars)

    *Seller is willing to assist with closing costs or a rate buy-down through preferred lender with an acceptable offer. * The Tupelo is a single story home that offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and approx 1,449 sq. ft. of living space. As you enter the long foyer, you'll pass both secondary bedrooms, as well as the secondary bathroom. The secondary bedrooms both feature large walk in closets. Next you'll enter the open concept kitchen which features stainless steel appliances with gas cooking range, granite countertops, and a corner walk-in pantry. The large kitchen island overlooks the living room which has plenty of natural lighting. The dining room is next to the kitchen and leads out to the large covered patio. The private main bedroom suite is located off the living room and features a huge walk-in closet and large walk-in shower with ceramic tile surround. Additional features include: tankless water heater; Ceramic tile flooring at Entry, Hallways, Kitchen, Living Room, Utility and Bathrooms; and, full yard sod, landscaping and irrigation. The Tupelo includes our HOME IS CONNECTED base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device.

17. 2026-04-10
    price $310,000 1261-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1261 chars)

    *Seller is willing to assist with closing costs or a rate buy-down through preferred lender with an acceptable offer. * The Tupelo is a single story home that offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and approx 1,449 sq. ft. of living space. As you enter the long foyer, you'll pass both secondary bedrooms, as well as the secondary bathroom. The secondary bedrooms both feature large walk in closets. Next you'll enter the open concept kitchen which features stainless steel appliances with gas cooking range, granite countertops, and a corner walk-in pantry. The large kitchen island overlooks the living room which has plenty of natural lighting. The dining room is next to the kitchen and leads out to the large covered patio. The private main bedroom suite is located off the living room and features a huge walk-in closet and large walk-in shower with ceramic tile surround. Additional features include: tankless water heater; Ceramic tile flooring at Entry, Hallways, Kitchen, Living Room, Utility and Bathrooms; and, full yard sod, landscaping and irrigation. The Tupelo includes our HOME IS CONNECTED base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device.

18. 2026-04-07
    listed $325,000 Active 1261-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1261 chars)

    *Seller is willing to assist with closing costs or a rate buy-down through preferred lender with an acceptable offer. * The Tupelo is a single story home that offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and approx 1,449 sq. ft. of living space. As you enter the long foyer, you'll pass both secondary bedrooms, as well as the secondary bathroom. The secondary bedrooms both feature large walk in closets. Next you'll enter the open concept kitchen which features stainless steel appliances with gas cooking range, granite countertops, and a corner walk-in pantry. The large kitchen island overlooks the living room which has plenty of natural lighting. The dining room is next to the kitchen and leads out to the large covered patio. The private main bedroom suite is located off the living room and features a huge walk-in closet and large walk-in shower with ceramic tile surround. Additional features include: tankless water heater; Ceramic tile flooring at Entry, Hallways, Kitchen, Living Room, Utility and Bathrooms; and, full yard sod, landscaping and irrigation. The Tupelo includes our HOME IS CONNECTED base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device.

19. 2026-02-12
    price $306,990
20. 2026-01-08
    listed $316,590 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,903
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$4,875
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,232
• − Management: −$2,232
• − HOA: −$672
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$11,393
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,734
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,846/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with good condition and minimal repairs needed. It's move-in ready with a good curb appeal and potential for value increases through updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal
• Both update flooring — improves both resale and rental value
• Both install new windows — increases natural light and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint exterior — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both update flooring — improves both resale and rental value ↑
• Both install new windows — increases natural light and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crowley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815910
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $59,810
• Composite: 25.04/100
• National rank: #7549
• State rank: #643 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fort Worth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #1954

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Worth, TX
• County: Tarrant County · 2,033,669 people
• City population: 911,619
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,044
• Household income: $97,973
• Rent vs Own: 23.7% rent · 76.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 584.0

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 20% Two or more races 14% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.45%
• Current HPI: 238.6365
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.28%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $309,500 NTREIS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $310,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $325,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $306,990 NTREIS
• 2026-01-08 Listed $316,590 NTREIS