5601 Arrowhead Dr · Pascagoula, MS 39581

$140,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 156 Days on market

Built 1971 10,454 sqft lot Est $115k · 22% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very Nice 3 Bed Home With 1 1/2 Bath, Home Was Recently Updated & Has A 2 Car Garage/Work Shop In The Back With Electricity. Home Is In Move Ready & Requires No Flood Insurance, This Home Also Qualifies For 100% Financing, Come See Today!

Key facts

• Half bath
• 0.24 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• SEPARATE TWO CAR GARAGE
• HALF BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $276 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 4.2% in Pascagoula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#41 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities D-, commute F.
• Pascagoula-Gautier School District (urban): math 40% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #41 of 130 in MS (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 516 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,427/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($38k/yr) (locally 965% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.46%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $115,200
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4907 Old Mobile Ave	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,039 (+8%)	1mo	$124,900	$120	52
4507 Robinhood Dr	0.53mi	3/1.5	1,050 (+9%)	17mo	$85,000	$81	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-5,142
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $17,974
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39581

• Home prices YoY: -10.5%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,427 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $704/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $276

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,077

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4800 Long Ave Pascagoula, MS	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	904	$1,430	$1.58	13d	27	0.43mi
5111 Orchard Ave Pascagoula, MS	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	853	$1,430	$1.68	13d	15	1.07mi
4315 Orchard Ave Pascagoula, MS	2.0	1.5	921	$1,267	$1.37	13d	21	1.26mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-03-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-20
   price $140,000
3. 2025-11-07
   status Active
4. 2025-11-02
   status Pending
5. 2025-10-16
   listed $152,500 Active
6. 2021-11-01
   soldstatus
7. 2016-05-11
   soldstatus 246-char remark

   Show marketing remark (246 chars)

   Very Nice 3 Bed Home With 1 1/2 Bath, Home Was Recently Updated & Has A 2 Car Garage/Work Shop In The Back With Electricity. Home Is In Move Ready & Requires No Flood Insurance, This Home Also Qualifies For 100% Financing, Come See Today!

8. 2016-02-01
   listed $64,900 246-char remark

   Show marketing remark (246 chars)

   Very Nice 3 Bed Home With 1 1/2 Bath, Home Was Recently Updated & Has A 2 Car Garage/Work Shop In The Back With Electricity. Home Is In Move Ready & Requires No Flood Insurance, This Home Also Qualifies For 100% Financing, Come See Today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $704 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,106 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$402/yr (+$34/mo · 57.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 54% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,125
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$704
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,370
• − Management: −$1,370
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $1,066
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$256
• After-tax cash flow: $3,059/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pascagoula-Gautier School District
• NCES district ID: 2803480
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,392
• Composite: 32.86/100
• National rank: #5613
• State rank: #41 of 130 in MS

Livability — Pascagoula

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #41
• US rank: #7866

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pascagoula, MS
• County: Jackson County · 82,196 people
• City population: 21,731
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 11,390
• Household income: $37,927
• Rent vs Own: 59.2% rent · 40.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 965.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,926 people
• By 2030: 148,442 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 149,631 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 148,723 · +1.2%
• By 2075: 147,845 · +0.6%
• By 2100: 144,510 · -1.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 40% White 38% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.5% · R 69.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+34.6 2016: R+39.9 2012: R+36.1 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -22.34%
• Current HPI: 191.273
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+115.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $140,000 MLSU
• 2025-11-07 Relisted — MLSU
• 2025-11-02 Pending — MLSU
• 2025-10-16 Listed $152,500 MLSU
• 2021-11-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-05-11 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2016-02-01 Listed $64,900 MLSU

Property tax history

-4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $704 · +11.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.