1000 Mill St · Henderson, KY 42420

$144,950

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,566 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1949 6,098 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Get ready to fall in love with 1000 Mill St—An inviting 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home that blends comfort, style, and smart updates in all the right ways! The remodeled kitchen shines with a fresh, modern vibe, complete with updated lighting and a stove and refrigerator less than 2 years old—perfect for cooking up your favorites. Big-ticket upgrades like windows only 5 years old and a brand-new water heater mean less worry and more living. Step outside to enjoy a fully fenced backyard—great for pets, playtime, or weekend hangouts—and a 1-car detached garage for extra storage or parking. This home is also handicap accessible, featuring a sturdy composite wood wheelchair ra

Key facts

• Remodeled kitchen
• Updated lighting
• Detached garage

Tags

• REMODELED KITCHEN
• UPDATED LIGHTING
• STOVE AND REFRIGERATOR
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• DETACHED GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3 ($36/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (25.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $108k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#114 in KY, #4,949 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Henderson County (suburban): math 40% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #29 of 165 in KY (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 228 active listings in the ZIP; 92 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henderson County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $145k implies a 314% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,089 (25.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.09%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-23,375
• Equity at exit: $21,613

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-20,422
• Equity at exit: $12,533

Cash invested: $40,586 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42420

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Active inventory: 228
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,081 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $365/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $3

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,077

Max offer price $144,950

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,238
• Closing costs: $4,348
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-24
   price $144,950
3. 2026-04-24
   listed $145,000 Active
4. 2026-03-24
   price $145,000
5. 2026-03-24
   price $145,000
6. 2026-03-04
   listed $149,900 Active
7. 2026-03-04
   listed $149,900 Active
8. 2022-03-23
   soldstatus $35,000
9. 2019-05-02
   soldstatus $82,000
10. 2019-04-30
    soldstatus $82,000
11. 2019-02-21
    listed $85,000
12. 2018-07-17
    listed $45,600
13. 2014-09-04
    soldstatus $81,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $365 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,247 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$882/yr (+$73/mo · 241.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,971
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,119
• − Property taxes: −$365
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,038
• − Management: −$1,038
• − Depreciation: −$4,217
• Taxable loss: −$2,530
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$607
• After-tax cash flow: $643/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henderson County
• NCES district ID: 2102710
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $41,772
• Composite: 34.13/100
• National rank: #5285
• State rank: #29 of 165 in KY

Livability — Henderson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #114
• US rank: #4949

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Henderson, KY
• Population (ZIP): 38,434

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,910 people
• By 2030: 46,841 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 46,018 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 44,390 · -5.4%
• By 2075: 40,442 · -13.8%
• By 2100: 33,538 · -28.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 8% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.2) · D 34.7% · R 64.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.9pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -29.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.2 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+27.7 2012: R+11.8 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.69%
• Current HPI: 207.5676
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+79.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — MHCBOR
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $144,950 MHCBOR
• 2026-04-24 Listed $145,000 MHCBOR
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $145,000 GORAMLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $145,000 HABOR
• 2026-03-04 Listed $149,900 HABOR
• 2026-03-04 Listed $149,900 GORAMLS
• 2022-03-23 Sold (MLS) $35,000 HABOR
• 2019-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records
• 2019-04-30 Sold (MLS) $82,000 HABOR
• 2019-02-21 Listed $85,000 HABOR
• 2018-07-17 Listed $45,600 HABOR
• 2014-09-04 Sold (Public Records) $81,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $365 · -7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.