409 Ash St · Lexington-Fayette, KY 40508

$92,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,004 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 93 Days on market

Built 1943 3,800 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully remodeled 3-bedroom, 1-bath home that offers both affordability and convenience. Step inside to discover new HVAC, flooring, and paint, ensuring modern comfort and style. This well-maintained residence is ideally situated close to Rupp Arena, making it the perfect choice for those seeking a prime location. Don't miss your chance to call this inviting property your new home.

Key facts

• 3,800 sq ft lot
• Built 1943
• Listed 93 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; No additional utilities listed
• Home design: One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Partial chain-link fencing; Composition roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 total rooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump for heating; Heat pump for cooling; Has heating
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; No fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $92k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $626 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $92k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.5% vs local median 3.8% in Lexington-Fayette — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fayette County (urban): math 35% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #27 of 165 in KY (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Booker T Washington Elementary School (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #607 of 676 statewide, top 91%, 313 students, 83% FRL); Leestown Middle School (math 28% / reading 44%, grade F, #91 of 217 statewide, top 43%, 966 students, 52% FRL); Paul Laurence Dunbar High School (math 51% / reading 49%, grade D+, #12 of 254 statewide, top 4%, 1,946 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 44% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.8%/yr); 82 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,036 units permitted in Fayette County in 2024 (542 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,496/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($29k/yr) (locally 2644% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $636 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fayette County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $68k (42%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1943 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $83,720 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1943 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.15%
• DSCR: 2.30
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $202,808
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
457 Lindberg Dr	0.26mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,044 (+4%)	12mo	$165,000	$158	66
869 Whitney Ave	0.13mi	2/1.0 (+1)	893 (-11%)	6mo	$70,000	$78	65
548 Maryland Ave	0.59mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,015 (+1%)	2mo	$380,000	$374	60
557 Haskins Dr	0.41mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,080 (+8%)	10mo	$100,000	$93	55
126 Henton Rd	0.67mi	1/1.0	963 (-4%)	13mo	$195,000	$202	51
101 Thompson Rd	0.67mi	2/1.0 (+1)	974 (-3%)	10mo	$150,000	$154	50
806 Charles Ave	0.22mi	2/1.0 (+1)	882 (-12%)	17mo	$94,000	$107	50
962 Waverly Dr	0.64mi	2/2.0 (+1)	900 (-10%)	3mo	$199,000	$221	42
737 W Main St	0.67mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,079 (+8%)	13mo	$265,000	$246	41
448 Jefferson St	0.72mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,036 (+3%)	17mo	$325,000	$314	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $32,829
• Equity at exit: $13,717

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.49×
• Total profit: $115,786
• Equity at exit: $7,954

Cash invested: $25,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40508

• Rents YoY: 11.8%
• Active inventory: 82
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,496 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$482
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $423/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $626

Break-even live

Break-even rent $704

Max offer price $92,000

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,000
• Closing costs: $2,760
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
330 Newtown Pike Lexington, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	976	$1,033	$1.06	23d	1	0.46mi
345 Blackburn Ave Lexington, KY	2.0	2.0	946	$1,925	$2.03	14d	1	0.57mi
444 Jefferson St Unit A Lexington, KY	2.0	2.0	1220	$1,950	$1.60	14d	1	0.71mi
208 Clyde St Lexington, KY	2.0	1.0	982	$1,100	$1.12	21d	1	0.90mi
325 W 6th St Lexington, KY	1.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	23d	1	1.05mi
355 S Broadway #305 Lexington, KY	2.0	2.0	1436	$2,900	$2.02	23d	1	1.19mi
423 N Martin Luther King Blvd Lexington, KY	—	1.0	732	$795	$1.09	23d	1	1.32mi
434 N Martin Luther King Blvd #201 Lexington, KY	2.0	2.0	950	$1,450	$1.53	23d	1	1.35mi
120 E Main St Lexington, KY	2.0	1.0–2.0	710	$1,888	$2.66	14d	20	1.36mi
261 S Limestone #303 Lexington, KY	2.0	2.0	1102	$2,995	$2.72	23d	1	1.38mi
275 S Limestone #115 Lexington, KY	2.0	2.0	1010	$2,500	$2.48	23d	1	1.41mi
214 E Seventh St Lexington, KY	2.0	1.0	832	$1,000	$1.20	23d	1	1.46mi
161 E Loudon Ave Lexington, KY	2.0	1.0	1118	$1,300	$1.16	23d	1	1.48mi
700 Red Mile Rd Lexington, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0	699	$1,095	$1.57	21d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   price $92,000
3. 2026-03-31
   price $102,500
4. 2026-03-06
   price $128,000
5. 2026-01-27
   listed $160,000 Active
6. 2024-03-21
   soldstatus $115,000
7. 2023-12-22
   soldstatus $115,000 Closed 404-char remark

   Show marketing remark (404 chars)

   Welcome to this beautifully remodeled 3-bedroom, 1-bath home that offers both affordability and convenience. Step inside to discover new HVAC, flooring, and paint, ensuring modern comfort and style. This well-maintained residence is ideally situated close to Rupp Arena, making it the perfect choice for those seeking a prime location. Don't miss your chance to call this inviting property your new home.

8. 2023-12-21
   status Pending 404-char remark

   Show marketing remark (404 chars)

   Welcome to this beautifully remodeled 3-bedroom, 1-bath home that offers both affordability and convenience. Step inside to discover new HVAC, flooring, and paint, ensuring modern comfort and style. This well-maintained residence is ideally situated close to Rupp Arena, making it the perfect choice for those seeking a prime location. Don't miss your chance to call this inviting property your new home.

9. 2023-10-20
   historical Contingent 404-char remark

   Show marketing remark (404 chars)

   Welcome to this beautifully remodeled 3-bedroom, 1-bath home that offers both affordability and convenience. Step inside to discover new HVAC, flooring, and paint, ensuring modern comfort and style. This well-maintained residence is ideally situated close to Rupp Arena, making it the perfect choice for those seeking a prime location. Don't miss your chance to call this inviting property your new home.

10. 2023-10-10
    price $123,500 404-char remark

    Show marketing remark (404 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully remodeled 3-bedroom, 1-bath home that offers both affordability and convenience. Step inside to discover new HVAC, flooring, and paint, ensuring modern comfort and style. This well-maintained residence is ideally situated close to Rupp Arena, making it the perfect choice for those seeking a prime location. Don't miss your chance to call this inviting property your new home.

11. 2023-09-22
    status Active 404-char remark

    Show marketing remark (404 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully remodeled 3-bedroom, 1-bath home that offers both affordability and convenience. Step inside to discover new HVAC, flooring, and paint, ensuring modern comfort and style. This well-maintained residence is ideally situated close to Rupp Arena, making it the perfect choice for those seeking a prime location. Don't miss your chance to call this inviting property your new home.

12. 2023-09-17
    historical Contingent 404-char remark

    Show marketing remark (404 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully remodeled 3-bedroom, 1-bath home that offers both affordability and convenience. Step inside to discover new HVAC, flooring, and paint, ensuring modern comfort and style. This well-maintained residence is ideally situated close to Rupp Arena, making it the perfect choice for those seeking a prime location. Don't miss your chance to call this inviting property your new home.

13. 2023-09-15
    listed $129,900 Active 404-char remark

    Show marketing remark (404 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully remodeled 3-bedroom, 1-bath home that offers both affordability and convenience. Step inside to discover new HVAC, flooring, and paint, ensuring modern comfort and style. This well-maintained residence is ideally situated close to Rupp Arena, making it the perfect choice for those seeking a prime location. Don't miss your chance to call this inviting property your new home.

14. 2011-10-11
    historical
15. 2010-10-11
    historical
16. 2010-10-11
    listed $26,900
17. 2010-02-11
    listed $26,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $423 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $791 · $66/mo
• Expected delta: +$369/yr (+$31/mo · 87.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,952
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,153
• − Property taxes: −$423
• − Insurance: −$460
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,436
• − Management: −$1,436
• − Depreciation: −$2,676
• Taxable income: $6,367
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,528
• After-tax cash flow: $5,982/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fayette County
• NCES district ID: 2101860
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $49,245
• Composite: 34.38/100
• National rank: #5211
• State rank: #27 of 165 in KY

Livability — Lexington-Fayette

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• County: Fayette County · 317,143 people
• City population: 321,882
• Metro: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• Population (ZIP): 23,756
• Household income: $29,440
• Rent vs Own: 70.5% rent · 29.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2644.0

Population outlook (Fayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 363,454 people
• By 2030: 388,270 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 438,688 · +20.7%
• By 2050: 490,667 · +35.0%
• By 2075: 625,394 · +72.1%
• By 2100: 721,354 · +98.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Chinese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fayette

• 2024 margin: D (+18.1) · D 58.0% · R 39.9% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +13.3pp toward D · 2008: 4.8pp · 2024: 18.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.1 2020: D+20.8 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+1.0 2008: D+4.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -251.04%
• Current HPI: 204.3994
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.83%
• Metro: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+242.0% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $92,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $102,500 ImagineMLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $128,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-01-27 Listed $160,000 ImagineMLS
• 2024-03-21 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2023-12-22 Sold (MLS) $115,000 ImagineMLS
• 2023-12-21 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2023-10-20 Contingent — ImagineMLS
• 2023-10-10 Price Changed $123,500 ImagineMLS
• 2023-09-22 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2023-09-17 Contingent — ImagineMLS
• 2023-09-15 Listed $129,900 ImagineMLS
• 2011-10-11 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2010-10-11 Listed $26,900 ImagineMLS
• 2010-10-11 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2010-02-11 Listed $26,900 ImagineMLS

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2015): $423 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.