1431 Garvey Ave · Elsmere, KY 41018

$125,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1890 6,450 sqft lot $93/sqft · 50% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.6/30.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity knocks! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers solid potential for investors or handy buyers looking to add value. Featuring wood floors throughout and a partial basement for added storage, the home also includes three covered porches, perfect for relaxing or expanding outdoor living space. Situated on two lots, there's plenty of room for future possibilities. Being sold AS-IS, this property is ideal for those ready to bring their vision to life. Don't miss your chance to turn this into a great investment or project!

Key facts

• Two lots
• Wood floors
• Partial basement

Tags

• WOOD FLOORS
• PARTIAL BASEMENT
• THREE COVERED PORCHES
• TWO LOTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $236 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 5.0% in Elsmere — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#121 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Erlanger-Elsmere Independent (suburban): math 21% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #128 of 165 in KY (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 122 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 699 units permitted in Kenton County in 2024 (287 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kenton County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $125k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $121,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.10%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $252,148
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -50.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1400 Central Row Rd	0.13mi	2/1.5	1,418 (+6%)	0mo	$230,000	$162	83
1046 Fallbrook Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,361 (+1%)	0mo	$275,000	$202	83
914 Central Row Rd	0.35mi	2/1.0	1,330 (-1%)	2mo	$72,500	$55	80
1230 Central Row Rd	0.16mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,271 (-5%)	0mo	$209,000	$164	76
451 Fox	0.42mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,260 (-6%)	2mo	$170,000	$135	63
232 Shaw Ave	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (-4%)	1mo	$229,000	$177	61
281 Fox St	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (+4%)	0mo	$230,000	$164	58
1015 Shadowridge Dr	0.31mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,512 (+12%)	1mo	$273,000	$181	53
712 Bedinger St	0.63mi	2/1.0	1,197 (-11%)	2mo	$227,000	$190	51
409 Lytle Ave	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,225 (-9%)	1mo	$199,500	$163	45
622 Stevenson Rd	0.69mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,204 (-10%)	1mo	$252,500	$210	42
3545 Jacqueline Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,161 (-14%)	2mo	$250,000	$215	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-3,372
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $24,180
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41018

• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,446 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$198 /mo · $2,382/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $236

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,147

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
104 Dove Dr Elsmere, KY	3.0	2.0	924	$1,295	$1.40	14d	1	0.39mi
3610 Concord Dr Erlanger, KY	3.0	1.5	1064	$1,700	$1.60	43d	1	0.40mi
9 Eagle Dr Elsmere, KY	3.0	2.0	960	$1,328	$1.38	23d	1	0.40mi
109 Dove Dr Elsmere, KY	3.0	2.0	960	$1,328	$1.38	1d	1	0.44mi
64 Eagle Dr Elsmere, KY	3.0	2.0	960	$1,328	$1.38	7d	1	0.46mi
868 Virginiabradford Ct Elsmere, KY	3.0	2.5	974	$3,500	$3.59	1d	1	0.50mi
121 Carlisle St Elsmere, KY	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,000	$1.21	14d	1	0.83mi
3000 Stoneybrook Ln Elsmere, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	989	$1,660	$1.68	4d	17	1.13mi
159 Green River Dr Erlanger, KY	2.0	2.0	1278	$1,595	$1.25	1d	1	1.16mi
43 Banklick St Florence, KY	2.0	2.0	1265	$1,355	$1.07	3d	3	1.29mi
7222 Isaac Ln Florence, KY	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,795	$1.28	16d	1	1.35mi
6805 Sebree Dr Florence, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	901	$1,404	$1.56	1d	14	1.48mi
101 Pinehurst Dr Florence, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0	815	$1,399	$1.72	23d	6	1.49mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $125,000 Pending 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   pricestatusdays on market $125,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $135,000 Pending 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $135,000 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $135,000 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $135,000 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $135,000 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-05-07
    price $135,000 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    Opportunity knocks! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers solid potential for investors or handy buyers looking to add value. Featuring wood floors throughout and a partial basement for added storage, the home also includes three covered porches, perfect for relaxing or expanding outdoor living space. Situated on two lots, there's plenty of room for future possibilities. Being sold AS-IS, this property is ideal for those ready to bring their vision to life. Don't miss your chance to turn this into a great investment or project!

12. 2026-04-20
    listed $145,000 Active 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    Opportunity knocks! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers solid potential for investors or handy buyers looking to add value. Featuring wood floors throughout and a partial basement for added storage, the home also includes three covered porches, perfect for relaxing or expanding outdoor living space. Situated on two lots, there's plenty of room for future possibilities. Being sold AS-IS, this property is ideal for those ready to bring their vision to life. Don't miss your chance to turn this into a great investment or project!

13. 2004-05-20
    soldstatus $72,000
14. 2004-05-14
    soldstatus $72,000 182-char remark

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    Great Opportunity for First-Time Buyer or Investor or Handyman! All appliances including washer/dryer. 3 covered porches Incredible yard (5 lots)! Being sold As Is. Quick Possession!

15. 2004-04-18
    listed $80,000 182-char remark

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    Great Opportunity for First-Time Buyer or Investor or Handyman! All appliances including washer/dryer. 3 covered porches Incredible yard (5 lots)! Being sold As Is. Quick Possession!

16. 1987-11-30
    soldstatus $20,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,382 · $198/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,382 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,350
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$2,382
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,388
• − Management: −$1,388
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $929
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$223
• After-tax cash flow: $2,611/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erlanger-Elsmere Independent
• NCES district ID: 2101740
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,377
• Composite: 23.01/100
• National rank: #7975
• State rank: #128 of 165 in KY

Livability — Elsmere

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #121
• US rank: #5733

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elsmere, KY
• County: Kenton County · 142,881 people
• City population: 28,707
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 28,940
• Household income: $68,605
• Rent vs Own: 31.9% rent · 68.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 678.0

Population outlook (Kenton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 174,205 people
• By 2030: 177,897 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 182,671 · +4.9%
• By 2050: 183,543 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 178,977 · +2.7%
• By 2100: 159,920 · -8.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Kenton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.7) · D 38.2% · R 59.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.9pp no change · 2008: -20.9pp · 2024: -21.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.7 2020: R+19.3 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+24.3 2008: R+20.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -211.57%
• Current HPI: 215.9599
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.22%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+558.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $135,000 NKMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $145,000 NKMLS
• 2004-05-20 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 2004-05-14 Sold (MLS) $72,000 NKMLS
• 2004-04-18 Listed $80,000 NKMLS
• 1987-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $20,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,382 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.