6870 99th St S · Cottage Grove, MN 55016

$275,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,702 sqft · Townhouse public records · 4 Days on market

Built 2005 2,047 sqft lot $302/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful light bright townhome with open floor. Main floor family room with gas fireplace. Open kitchen, vaulted ceiling, 3 bedrooms with 3 toilets, walk-in closet into master bedroom and extra large driveway parking lot and 2 car garage parking.

Key facts

• Large front yard
• Open green space
• No attached neighbor

Tags

• LARGE FRONT YARD
• OPEN GREEN SPACE
• NO ATTACHED NEIGHBOR
• COVERED BACK PORCH
• UPDATED FLOORING
• MODERN LIGHTING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mississippi Dunes Townhomes (Gassen) association; Monthly association fee of $302 covering lawn care, sewer and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with automatic door opener; Garage fits 2 cars (approximately 19x21)
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential attached property; Two levels
• Construction: Asphalt roof (age 8 years or less); Foundation area approximately 1,028
• Exterior features: Patio; Light tree coverage; City street frontage with curbs and paved streets

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen center island; Kitchen window; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on upper level); Primary bedroom with private ensuite
• Bathrooms: One full bath; One three-quarter bath; One half bath; Primary ensuite with walk-in shower
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Fireplace heating supplemental; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Natural woodwork; Paneled doors; Vaulted ceilings; In-ground sprinkler; Walk-in closet(s); Primary bedroom with private ensuite and walk-in shower; Living/Dining room combination; Eat-in kitchen / kitchen dining area; 2nd-floor laundry
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer hookups; Laundry closet on upper level; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-173 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (11.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (9.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $244k (11.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.5% in Cottage Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#132 in MN, #2,948 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• South Washington County School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #40 of 301 in MN (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 401 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,405 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $237k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $244,475 (11.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.69%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-53,405
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-51,681
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55016

• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 401
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,496 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$286 /mo · $3,434/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$302
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $-173

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,715

Max offer price $244,475

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-17	-5% $-95	+0% $-173	+5% $-251	+10% $-328
Rent	-10% $-370	-5% $-271	+0% $-173	+5% $-74	+10% $24
Rate	-1.0pp $-34	-0.5pp $-103	base $-173	+0.5pp $-244	+1.0pp $-317

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $302 · $3,624/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-09
   listed $275,000 Active
3. 2020-08-31
   soldstatus $236,970
4. 2020-08-27
   soldstatus $237,000 Sold 247-char remark

   Show marketing remark (247 chars)

   Beautiful light bright townhome with open floor. Main floor family room with gas fireplace. Open kitchen, vaulted ceiling, 3 bedrooms with 3 toilets, walk-in closet into master bedroom and extra large driveway parking lot and 2 car garage parking.

5. 2020-07-20
   status Pending 247-char remark

   Show marketing remark (247 chars)

   Beautiful light bright townhome with open floor. Main floor family room with gas fireplace. Open kitchen, vaulted ceiling, 3 bedrooms with 3 toilets, walk-in closet into master bedroom and extra large driveway parking lot and 2 car garage parking.

6. 2020-07-16
   price $234,900 247-char remark

   Show marketing remark (247 chars)

   Beautiful light bright townhome with open floor. Main floor family room with gas fireplace. Open kitchen, vaulted ceiling, 3 bedrooms with 3 toilets, walk-in closet into master bedroom and extra large driveway parking lot and 2 car garage parking.

7. 2020-07-08
   listed $249,900 Active 247-char remark

   Show marketing remark (247 chars)

   Beautiful light bright townhome with open floor. Main floor family room with gas fireplace. Open kitchen, vaulted ceiling, 3 bedrooms with 3 toilets, walk-in closet into master bedroom and extra large driveway parking lot and 2 car garage parking.

8. 2020-07-06
   historical $249,900 247-char remark

   Show marketing remark (247 chars)

   Beautiful light bright townhome with open floor. Main floor family room with gas fireplace. Open kitchen, vaulted ceiling, 3 bedrooms with 3 toilets, walk-in closet into master bedroom and extra large driveway parking lot and 2 car garage parking.

9. 2017-10-16
   historical
10. 2017-09-20
    price $189,900
11. 2017-07-29
    listed $199,900 Active
12. 2009-06-17
    soldstatus $121,000
13. 2009-04-28
    historical
14. 2009-04-02
    listed $119,700
15. 2007-11-19
    historical
16. 2007-08-13
    listed $271,000
17. 2007-07-06
    historical
18. 2007-04-30
    listed $270,400
19. 2007-04-26
    historical
20. 2007-03-15
    listed $274,500
21. 2005-12-12
    soldstatus $255,000
22. 2004-05-28
    soldstatus $50,955

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,434 · $286/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,434 · $286/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,956
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$3,434
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,396
• − Management: −$2,396
• − HOA: −$3,624
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$6,674
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,602
• After-tax cash flow: $-472/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Washington County School District
• NCES district ID: 2733810
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $88,285
• Composite: 51.8/100
• National rank: #1670
• State rank: #40 of 301 in MN

Livability — Cottage Grove

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #2948

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cottage Grove, MN
• County: Washington County · 235,613 people
• City population: 40,695
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 40,695
• Household income: $120,715
• Rent vs Own: 11.8% rent · 88.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 323.0

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 278,554 people
• By 2030: 290,465 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 310,014 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 324,118 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 362,697 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 381,491 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 7% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 5% Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 53.5% · R 44.6% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+9.2 2016: D+1.9 2012: D+0.8 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -258.55%
• Current HPI: 241.1084
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.78%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+439.7% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Listed $275,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $236,970 Public Records
• 2020-08-27 Sold (MLS) $237,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-20 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-16 Price Changed $234,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-08 Listed $249,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-06 Coming Soon $249,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-16 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-09-20 Price Changed $189,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-07-29 Listed $199,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-06-17 Sold (MLS) $121,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-04-28 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-04-02 Listed $119,700 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-11-19 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-08-13 Listed $271,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-07-06 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-04-30 Listed $270,400 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-04-26 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-03-15 Listed $274,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-12-12 Sold (Public Records) $255,000 Public Records
• 2004-05-28 Sold (Public Records) $50,955 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,434 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.