413 S Clay St · Sturgis, MI 49091

$100,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 884 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1950 0.25 ac lot Est $136k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1950

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Built in 1950
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Asphalt roof; 884 sq. ft. living area
• Exterior features: Flag lot; Public water

Interior

• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Five total rooms; Partial Michigan basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $14 ($163/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $88k (11.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $88k (11.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.0% in Sturgis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#226 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Sturgis Public Schools (town): math 20% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #413 of 540 in MI (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 113 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 125 units permitted in St. Joseph County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Joseph County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $88,281 (11.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.58%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $136,136
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
408 S Clay St	0.05mi	2/1.0	800 (-10%)	5mo	$145,000	$181	78
206 1st St	0.67mi	2/1.0	880 (-0%)	6mo	$134,900	$153	63
609 Walker St	0.60mi	2/1.0	909 (+3%)	10mo	$152,000	$167	59
609 S Orange St	0.34mi	2/1.0	960 (+9%)	19mo	$89,000	$93	54
710 Cornelia St	0.66mi	2/1.0	876 (-1%)	18mo	$75,000	$86	53
212 N Orange St	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	862 (-2%)	8mo	$59,100	$69	51
607 Mechanic St	0.52mi	2/1.0	988 (+12%)	9mo	$145,000	$147	49
408 Walker St	0.44mi	2/1.0	804 (-9%)	22mo	$135,000	$168	46
409 Norwood Ave	0.25mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (+14%)	22mo	$154,900	$154	41
69819 S Nottawa Rd	0.62mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,004 (+14%)	2mo	$190,000	$189	40
69801 S Nottawa St	0.61mi	2/1.0	1,000 (+13%)	14mo	$74,100	$74	38
202 1st St	0.65mi	3/1.0 (+1)	974 (+10%)	15mo	$156,500	$161	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-15,328
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-12,195
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49091

• Active inventory: 113
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $883 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,413/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$185
• Net cashflow: $14

Break-even live

Break-even rent $866

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
260 John St Sturgis, MI	1.0	1.0	640	$1,000	$1.56	43d	1	0.46mi
1050 Cato Ln Sturgis, MI	2.0	1.0	700	$795	$1.14	43d	1	0.65mi
1025 Cato Ln Unit A2 Sturgis, MI	1.0	1.0	542	$795	$1.47	43d	1	0.71mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-08
   historical
3. 2026-05-08
   historical
4. 2026-05-07
   listed $100,000 Active
5. 2026-05-07
   listed $100,000
6. 2026-05-07
   listed $100,000
7. 2020-09-09
   soldstatus $75,000
8. 2020-09-02
   soldstatus $75,000
9. 2020-09-02
   soldstatus $75,000 Sold
10. 2020-06-12
    status Pending
11. 2020-01-20
    listed $79,900
12. 2020-01-20
    listed $79,900 Active
13. 2020-01-20
    listed $79,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,413 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,476 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: +$64/yr (+$5/mo · 4.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,594
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,413
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$847
• − Management: −$847
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable loss: −$1,525
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$366
• After-tax cash flow: $529/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sturgis Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2633090
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $40,702
• Composite: 21.95/100
• National rank: #8220
• State rank: #413 of 540 in MI

Livability — Sturgis

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #226
• US rank: #5687

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sturgis, MI
• Population (ZIP): 19,448

Population outlook (St. Joseph County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,726 people
• By 2030: 57,030 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 53,266 · -9.3%
• By 2050: 49,343 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 40,441 · -31.1%
• By 2100: 31,981 · -45.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 12% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Italian 10% Romanian 4% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 16% German/W. Germanic 4%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Joseph

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.0) · D 32.2% · R 66.2% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.8pp toward R · 2008: -2.2pp · 2024: -34.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.0 2020: R+31.7 2016: R+31.0 2012: R+12.3 2008: R+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.64%
• Current HPI: 205.9474
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+25.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-05-08 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-07 Listed $100,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $100,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-07 Listed $100,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2020-09-09 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2020-09-02 Sold (MLS) $75,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2020-09-02 Sold (MLS) $75,000 REALCOMP
• 2020-06-12 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2020-01-20 Listed $79,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-01-20 Listed $79,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2020-01-20 Listed $79,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,413 · -16.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.