Walker Plan · Denton, TX 76226

$379,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,617 sqft · SingleFamily · 127 Days on market

Excellent condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

None

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 126 days

🏗️ New construction. The $379,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $436,309.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $380k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-641 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $344k (9.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $300k (20.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $300k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.4% in Denton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#2 in TX, #210 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Denton ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #383 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 1339 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 37d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($334k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $300,499 (20.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.30%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $436,309
• List price: $379,990
• Delta: -12.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9213 Rolling Meadow Way	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,653 (+2%)	0mo	$389,990	$236	90
9209 Rolling Meadow Way	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,816 (+12%)	1mo	$420,820	$232	72
9100 Perimeter St	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,643 (+2%)	4mo	$435,000	$265	60
9504 Pinewood Dr	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,585 (-2%)	1mo	$374,000	$236	59
9517 Ravenwood Dr	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,611 (-0%)	18mo	$355,000	$220	48
9505 Trailwood Dr	0.75mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,524 (-6%)	4mo	$359,900	$236	48
9120 Starwood Ln	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,585 (-2%)	17mo	$394,500	$249	46
9604 Pinewood Dr	0.74mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,484 (-8%)	4mo	$335,000	$226	44
9508 Pinewood Dr	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,585 (-2%)	19mo	$355,000	$224	43
9601 Ravenwood Dr	0.69mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,773 (+10%)	3mo	$430,000	$243	43
9413 Perimeter St	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (+4%)	21mo	$389,000	$232	39
9513 Rivercrest Dr	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,484 (-8%)	16mo	$379,000	$255	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-115,645
• Equity at exit: $65,055

10-year hold

• IRR: -34.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.39×
• Total profit: $-169,653
• Equity at exit: $37,724

Cash invested: $122,167 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 30 active · 17 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.6 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $418,990 ($240/sqft)
• Median days on market: 107 d
• This list price: 13% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +12.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76226

• Home prices YoY: -24.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 1339
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,005 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,288
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$545 /mo · $6,545/yr
• Insurance: −$182
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$631
• Net cashflow: $-641

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,817

Max offer price $343,513

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-340	-5% $-491	+0% $-641	+5% $-792	+10% $-943
Rent	-10% $-879	-5% $-760	+0% $-641	+5% $-523	+10% $-404
Rate	-1.0pp $-422	-0.5pp $-530	base $-641	+0.5pp $-754	+1.0pp $-869

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,077
• Closing costs: $13,089
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9604 Pinewood Dr Denton, TX	2.0	2.0	1484	$2,900	$1.95	30d	1	0.75mi
9701 Teakwood Ave Denton, TX	2.0	2.0	1818	$2,995	$1.65	61d	1	0.77mi
9400 Orangewood Trl Denton, TX	2.0	2.0	1585	$3,100	$1.96	92d	1	0.85mi
1028 Huckleberry St Northlake, TX	4.0	2.0	1992	$2,700	$1.36	0d	1	1.01mi
9616 Creekmere Dr Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	2213	$2,395	$1.08	8d	1	1.02mi
6709 Roaring Crk Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	2161	$2,650	$1.23	10d	1	1.04mi
6012 Parkplace Dr Argyle, TX	4.0	2.0	2003	$2,700	$1.35	36d	1	1.40mi
5912 Meadowglen Dr Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$2,100	$1.38	48d	1	1.45mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price: $379,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: New construction planAddress: 8100 Prairie Park Blvd, Denton TX 76226
• Exterior features: Living area: 1,617

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan name: WalkerActive listing

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $379,990 Active 127 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $379,990 Active 125 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $379,990 Active 124 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $379,990 Active 123 DOM
5. 2026-07-31
   days on market $379,990 Active 119 DOM
6. 2026-07-30
   days on market $379,990 Active 117 DOM
7. 2026-07-28
   days on market $379,990 Active 116 DOM
8. 2026-07-26
   days on market $379,990 Active 114 DOM
9. 2026-07-24
   days on market $379,990 Active 112 DOM
10. 2026-07-23
    days on market $379,990 Active 111 DOM
11. 2026-07-22
    days on market $379,990 Active 110 DOM
12. 2026-07-21
    days on market $379,990 Active 109 DOM
13. 2026-07-20
    days on market $379,990 Active 108 DOM
14. 2026-07-18
    days on market $379,990 Active 106 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $379,990 Active 105 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $379,990 Active 104 DOM
17. 2026-07-15
    days on market $379,990 Active 103 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $379,990 Active 102 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $379,990 Active 101 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $379,990 Active 100 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $379,990 Active 99 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $379,990 Active 98 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $379,990 Active 97 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $379,990 Active 95 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $379,990 Active 94 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $379,990 Active 93 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $379,990 Active 92 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $379,990 Active 91 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $379,990 Active 90 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $379,990 Active 89 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $379,990 Active 88 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $379,990 Active 87 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $379,990 Active 86 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $379,990 Active 85 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $379,990 Active 84 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $379,990 Active 82 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $379,990 Active 80 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $379,990 Active 79 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $379,990 Active 76 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $379,990 Active 75 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $379,990 Active 74 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $379,990 Active 73 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $379,990 Active 71 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $379,990 Active 67 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $379,990 Active 66 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $379,990 Active 65 DOM
47. 2026-06-04
    days on market $379,990 Active 62 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $379,990 Active 61 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $379,990 Active 60 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $379,990 Active 59 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,060
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,440
• − Property taxes: −$6,545
• − Insurance: −$2,182
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,885
• − Management: −$2,885
• − Depreciation: −$12,693
• Taxable loss: −$15,569
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,736
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,959/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and some landscaping improvements to maximize its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Interior updates (paint, minor repairs) — Fresh paint and minor repairs can make the interior more appealing and functional. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 32/100

Zoned Schools

Middle Mcmath Middle F TX #947/1,662 Nat'l #8,188/14,009

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Denton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816740
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $58,913
• Composite: 34.91/100
• National rank: #5075
• State rank: #383 of 826 in TX

A Composite livability gradescore 88/100

Livability — Denton

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #210

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Denton, TX
• County: Denton County · 1,053,010 people
• City population: 127,990
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 43,587
• Household income: $180,982
• Rent vs Own: 6.4% rent · 93.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 10% Asian 7% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.81%
• Current HPI: 253.1948
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.61%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price: $379,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: New construction planAddress: 8100 Prairie Park Blvd, Denton TX 76226
• Exterior features: Living area: 1,617

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan name: WalkerActive listing