The Aisle Plan · Panama City, FL 32404

$332,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,960 sqft · SingleFamily · 162 Days on market

Good condition Garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the Aisle, a new home floor plan at Titus Park in Panama City, Florida. The Aisle is our only two-story floor plan available currently at Titus Park, featuring a spacious open kitchen and living room design on the bottom floor, and a thoughtfully laid out upstairs that feels large and cozy. The Aisle floor plan is a spacious 4-bedroom, 2.5 bathroom, with 1,960 square feet and includes a two-car garage. On the outside you will notice vinyl siding and a concrete walkway to the front door, which is covered by the second level.

Key facts

• Concrete walkway
• Concrete pad
• Two story floor plan

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• TWO STORY FLOOR PLAN
• VINYL SIDING
• CONCRETE WALKWAY
• BACKDOORS COVERED BY AN AWNING
• CONCRETE PAD

🏗️ New construction. The $332,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $337,478.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $333k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-480 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $268k (19.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (29.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (29.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Deer Point Elementary School (math 55% / reading 49%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 705 students, 55% FRL); Merritt Brown Middle School (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #388 of 571 statewide, top 69%, 701 students, 55% FRL); A. Crawford Mosley High School (math 51% / reading 55%, grade C-, #148 of 667 statewide, top 23%, 1,901 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1365 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 162 days — a 12% lower offer ($293k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,516 (29.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 162 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.09%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $337,478
• List price: $332,900
• Delta: -1.36%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4837 Windrow Way	0.29mi	4/3.0	1,968 (+0%)	2mo	$399,900	$203	82
4877 Windrow Way	0.36mi	4/3.0	1,968 (+0%)	2mo	$379,900	$193	79
4873 Rosemary St	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,799 (-8%)	3mo	$339,900	$189	78
4885 Windrow Way	0.38mi	4/3.0	1,968 (+0%)	3mo	$394,900	$201	77
4740 Loblolly Way	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,834 (-6%)	1mo	$290,000	$158	76
4904 Rosemary St	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,799 (-8%)	2mo	$339,900	$189	76
4813 Windrow Way	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,799 (-8%)	1mo	$354,900	$197	73
4889 Windrow Way	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,799 (-8%)	3mo	$349,900	$194	64
5186 Hastings Dr	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,799 (-8%)	2mo	$355,430	$198	61
5200 Porter Way	0.49mi	4/2.5	2,200 (+12%)	0mo	$349,900	$159	56
5178 Hastings Dr	0.47mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,145 (+9%)	2mo	$389,900	$182	54
4415 College Station Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,835 (-6%)	2mo	$325,000	$177	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-89,548
• Equity at exit: $50,319

10-year hold

• IRR: -38.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.42×
• Total profit: $-134,369
• Equity at exit: $29,179

Cash invested: $94,494 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 41 active · 40 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.7 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $349,900 ($187/sqft)
• Median days on market: 91 d
• This list price: 22% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -7.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32404

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1365
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,345 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,770
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$422 /mo · $5,062/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $-480

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,952

Max offer price $268,085

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-246	-5% $-363	+0% $-480	+5% $-596	+10% $-713
Rent	-10% $-665	-5% $-572	+0% $-480	+5% $-387	+10% $-294
Rate	-1.0pp $-310	-0.5pp $-394	base $-480	+0.5pp $-567	+1.0pp $-656

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,369
• Closing costs: $10,124
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5057 Windrow Way Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1799	$2,300	$1.28	116d	1	0.31mi
5116 Sienna Dr Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,200	$1.47	6d	1	0.34mi
5028 Rivergrass Dr Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,300	$1.53	6d	1	0.37mi
198 MILL BAYOU Blvd Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1275	$2,110	$1.65	116d	3	0.48mi
4201 County Road 390 Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1275	$1,999	$1.57	116d	7	0.67mi
4031 Oak Forest Dr Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1644	$2,100	$1.28	116d	1	0.81mi
109 S Shoreview Dr Panama City, FL	4.0	2.5	2252	$2,850	$1.27	6d	1	0.87mi
5284 Emma Grace Dr Panama City, FL	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	2117	$2,377	$1.12	6d	1	0.88mi
4417 Bylsma Cir Panama City, FL	4.0	3.0	2276	$2,600	$1.14	6d	1	0.97mi
4501 Bylsma Cir Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	2073	$2,300	$1.11	6d	1	0.97mi
4113 Brighton Blvd Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$2,100	$1.18	6d	1	1.03mi
5020 Pretty Way Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1771	$2,150	$1.21	6d	1	1.03mi
4007 Pioneer Ln Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1788	$2,200	$1.23	6d	1	1.10mi
5424 Nicole Blvd Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1410	$2,000	$1.42	6d	1	1.10mi
4012 Millicent Ln Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,950	$1.09	116d	1	1.11mi
5419 Blue Dog Rd Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1802	$2,300	$1.28	6d	1	1.13mi
4840 McCall Ln Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1810	$2,300	$1.27	6d	1	1.15mi
4415 Conifer Ln Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1743	$2,200	$1.26	6d	1	1.29mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $332,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family plan-style homeLocated in Panama City, FL (zip 32404)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,960

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan home (The Aisle)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $332,900 Active 162 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $332,900 Active 161 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $332,900 Active 159 DOM
4. 2026-09-19
   days on market $332,900 Active 158 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $332,900 Active 157 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $332,900 Active 156 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $332,900 Active 155 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $332,900 Active 154 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $332,900 Active 153 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $332,900 Active 152 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $332,900 Active 151 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $332,900 Active 150 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $332,900 Active 144 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $332,900 Active 143 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $332,900 Active 142 DOM
16. 2026-08-29
    days on market $332,900 Active 137 DOM
17. 2026-08-28
    days on market $332,900 Active 136 DOM
18. 2026-08-27
    days on market $332,900 Active 135 DOM
19. 2026-08-26
    days on market $332,900 Active 134 DOM
20. 2026-08-25
    days on market $332,900 Active 133 DOM
21. 2026-08-24
    days on market $332,900 Active 132 DOM
22. 2026-08-23
    days on market $332,900 Active 131 DOM
23. 2026-08-22
    days on market $332,900 Active 130 DOM
24. 2026-08-21
    days on market $332,900 Active 129 DOM
25. 2026-08-20
    days on market $332,900 Active 128 DOM
26. 2026-08-19
    days on market $332,900 Active 127 DOM
27. 2026-08-18
    days on market $332,900 Active 126 DOM
28. 2026-08-17
    days on market $332,900 Active 125 DOM
29. 2026-08-16
    days on market $332,900 Active 124 DOM
30. 2026-08-15
    days on market $332,900 Active 123 DOM
31. 2026-08-14
    days on market $332,900 Active 122 DOM
32. 2026-08-13
    days on market $332,900 Active 121 DOM
33. 2026-08-12
    days on market $332,900 Active 120 DOM
34. 2026-08-11
    days on market $332,900 Active 119 DOM
35. 2026-08-10
    days on market $332,900 Active 118 DOM
36. 2026-08-09
    days on market $332,900 Active 117 DOM
37. 2026-08-08
    days on market $332,900 Active 116 DOM
38. 2026-08-07
    days on market $332,900 Active 115 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $332,900 Active 114 DOM
40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $332,900 Active 113 DOM
41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $332,900 Active 112 DOM
42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $332,900 Active 111 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $332,900 Active 108 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $332,900 Active 107 DOM
45. 2026-07-29
    days on market $332,900 Active 106 DOM
46. 2026-07-27
    days on market $332,900 Active 104 DOM
47. 2026-07-25
    days on market $332,900 Active 102 DOM
48. 2026-07-23
    days on market $332,900 Active 100 DOM
49. 2026-07-22
    days on market $332,900 Active 99 DOM
50. 2026-07-21
    days on market $332,900 Active 98 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,142
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,904
• − Property taxes: −$5,062
• − Insurance: −$1,687
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,251
• − Management: −$2,251
• − Depreciation: −$9,818
• Taxable loss: −$11,832
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,840
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,915/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready and has a good resale and rental value. Consider painting the exterior and interior, landscaping improvements, upgrading the kitchen appliances, and adding a smart home system to further increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers. ↑
• Both Adding a smart home system — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more energy-efficient and convenient. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 48/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Deer Point Elementary School C- FL #990/2,144 Nat'l #11,263/41,679 Middle Merritt Brown Middle School F FL #388/571 Nat'l #6,571/14,009 High A. Crawford Mosley High School C- FL #148/667 Nat'l #4,893/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Panama City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bay County · 206,264 people
• City population: 91,445
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,514
• Household income: $74,708
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, Mexico
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.59%
• Current HPI: 263.7178
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $332,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family plan-style homeLocated in Panama City, FL (zip 32404)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,960

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan home (The Aisle)