2952 SE 142nd Ln · Belleview, FL 34491

$229,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,083 sqft · Land · 161 Days on market

Built 2025 0.32 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Welcome home to this charming new construction that’s light, bright, and move-in ready!  This home features an open-concept layout with luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout, no carpet! The kitchen boasts elegant quartz countertops and white shaker cabinets. Enjoy your private backyard, perfect for relaxing or entertaining in a quite country setting. Builder’s warranty included for peace of mind. Conveniently located near Ocala and The Villages for easy access to shopping, dining, and entertainment.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• New construction
• Private backyard

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• WHITE SHAKER CABINETS
• PRIVATE BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot about 0.23 acre (cleared); Limerock road surface

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (20 x 18)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic sewer; Public utilities available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; New construction; Faces north
• Construction: Brick, concrete & stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by Aldana (model: Rachel)
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Cleared lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (one-level)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; High ceilings; Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Split bedroom floorplan; Thermostat; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-125 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (7.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (19.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (19.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.5% in Belleview — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#458 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 712 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $230k implies a 2199% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,289 (19.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.33%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-45,187
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-49,487
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34491

• Home prices YoY: -35.0%
• Active inventory: 712
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,853 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$287 /mo · $3,448/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $-125

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,011

Max offer price $211,812

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $34	-5% $-46	+0% $-125	+5% $-204	+10% $-284
Rent	-10% $-271	-5% $-198	+0% $-125	+5% $-52	+10% $21
Rate	-1.0pp $-9	-0.5pp $-67	base $-125	+0.5pp $-185	+1.0pp $-245

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3384 SE 138th St Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1265	$1,745	$1.38	22d	1	0.65mi
3780 SE 141st Ln Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1066	$1,595	$1.50	22d	1	0.77mi
3780 SE 141st Ln Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1066	$1,525	$1.43	15d	1	0.77mi
3934 SE 142nd St Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,499	$1.50	15d	1	0.92mi
3820 SE 136th Pl Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1265	$1,745	$1.38	22d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-08
   price $229,900
3. 2026-04-13
   price $232,000
4. 2026-04-08
   status Active
5. 2026-02-27
   status Pending
6. 2026-02-12
   price $235,000
7. 2026-01-30
   price $237,900
8. 2026-01-05
   price $238,000
9. 2025-12-17
   price $238,900
10. 2025-11-24
    price $239,000
11. 2025-10-24
    listed $240,000 Active
12. 2004-12-15
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,235
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$3,448
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,779
• − Management: −$1,779
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable loss: −$5,487
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,317
• After-tax cash flow: $-183/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Belleview

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #458
• US rank: #8314

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 19,167
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,318
• Household income: $66,679
• Rent vs Own: 13.2% rent · 86.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 256.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.67%
• Current HPI: 200.0792
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2199.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $229,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $232,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $235,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $237,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $238,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $238,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-24 Price Changed $239,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-24 Listed $240,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $295 · +78.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.