295 Old Mill Rd · Lake Lure, NC 28746

$180,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1995 14 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• Appreciation +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

ATTENTION INVESTORS, DIY HOME IMPROVERS & REHAB ENTHUSIASTS — don't miss this opportunity! 13.59 wooded acres offering privacy, natural beauty, and plenty of potential. A creek runs along the backside of the property, creating a peaceful setting with abundant wildlife and room to bring your vision to life. Two manufactured homes are located on the property. Seller makes no representations regarding the safety, condition, habitability, or usability of either structure. Property is being sold AS-IS. Sale is subject to court approval. Whether you're looking for an investment opportunity, a renovation project, or acreage to make your own, this property is worth a look.

Key facts

• Privacy
• Abundant wildlife
• Wooded acres

Tags

• WOODED ACRES
• CREEK
• ABUNDANT WILDLIFE
• PRIVACY
• NATURAL BEAUTY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Well water; Septic system installed
• Home design: Manufactured doublewide single family residence; One story; Second living quarters are exterior and not connected
• Construction: Manufactured construction with vinyl siding; Fiberglass and metal roofing; Crawl space foundation; Property contains 13.59 acres
• Exterior features: Private, wooded lot; Roads are gravel and paved; publicly maintained

Interior

• Kitchen: Appliances listed as Other (details not specified)
• Bedrooms: 6 bedrooms total — 3 on the main level and 3 in the second living quarters (exterior, not connected)
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms — 2 on the main level and 2 in the second living quarters
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump for heating and cooling
• Interior features: 6 total rooms; Other appliances (unspecified)
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $169 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (4.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $171k (4.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 0.9% in Lake Lure — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#351 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Rutherford County Schools (rural): math 43% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #98 of 178 in NC (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 408 active listings in the ZIP; 193 units permitted in Rutherford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (8.8% local appreciation)).
• Rutherford County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,280 (4.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.01%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.82% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.87×
• Total profit: $94,416
• Equity at exit: $146,903

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.29×
• Total profit: $266,832
• Equity at exit: $301,856

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28746

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 408
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,713 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,988/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $169

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,499

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $270	-5% $219	+0% $169	+5% $118	+10% $67
Rent	-10% $33	-5% $101	+0% $169	+5% $236	+10% $304
Rate	-1.0pp $259	-0.5pp $214	base $169	+0.5pp $122	+1.0pp $74

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 675-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $180,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,988 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,988 · $166/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,554
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$1,988
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,644
• − Management: −$1,644
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$942
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$226
• After-tax cash flow: $2,248/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rutherford County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704080
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,490
• Composite: 36.11/100
• National rank: #4753
• State rank: #98 of 178 in NC

Livability — Lake Lure

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #351
• US rank: #13888

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Rutherford County · 2,744 people
• City population: 2,744
• Metro: Forest City, NC
• Population (ZIP): 2,744
• Household income: $70,469
• Rent vs Own: 11.3% rent · 88.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 34.0

Population outlook (Rutherford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,695 people
• By 2030: 61,670 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 57,212 · -10.2%
• By 2050: 52,763 · -17.2%
• By 2075: 44,493 · -30.1%
• By 2100: 38,127 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Serbian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rutherford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.8) · D 25.8% · R 73.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: -31.8pp · 2024: -47.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.8 2020: R+45.8 2016: R+47.9 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+31.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.82%
• Current HPI: 351.5648
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Forest City, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $180,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,988 · +31.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.