560 County Highway 112 · Caroga Lake, NY 12078

$110,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 133 Days on market

Built 1996 1.30 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property. Charming home situated on a spacious and quiet lot, located close to your needed amenities. Home offers many recent updates, new kitchen, flooring, paint, carpet, bath, and appliances. Home offers a nice open floor plan allowing tons of natural light to flow throughout! Dont miss it!This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property. Charming home situated on a spacious and quiet lot, located close to your needed amenities. Home offers many recent updates, new kitchen, flooring, paint, carpet, bath, and appliances. Home offers a nice open floor plan allowing tons of natural light to flow throughout! Dont miss it.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• New kitchen
• Recent updates

Tags

• NEW KITCHEN
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• RECENT UPDATES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story double-wide mobile home; Existing construction
• Construction: Aluminum and vinyl siding; Block foundation; Attic/crawl hatchway(s) insulated
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Dirt driveway; Rectangular, rural lot (approx. 1.3 acres, 200 x 300)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Propane forced-air heating; Has heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $294 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 1.4% in Caroga Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#870 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing C-, health & safety C-, schools D+.
• Gloversville City School District (town): math 26% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #565 of 590 in NY (top 96%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Fulton County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $110k implies a 98% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.

Recommended offer $96,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.44%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.56×
• Total profit: $78,699
• Equity at exit: $99,097

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.2%
• Equity multiple: 8.05×
• Total profit: $217,216
• Equity at exit: $213,706

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12078

• Home prices YoY: 12.2%
• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,464 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$240 /mo · $2,882/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $294

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,092

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-18
   price $110,000
3. 2026-02-26
   status Active
4. 2026-01-09
   status Pending
5. 2025-11-12
   status Active
6. 2025-09-29
   status Pending
7. 2025-09-15
   listed $129,900 Active
8. 2004-05-04
   soldstatus $55,600
9. 1996-01-23
   soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,882 · $240/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,882 · $240/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,567
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$2,882
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,405
• − Management: −$1,405
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $1,963
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$471
• After-tax cash flow: $3,053/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gloversville City School District
• NCES district ID: 3612270
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $36,775
• Composite: 28.2/100
• National rank: #6806
• State rank: #565 of 590 in NY

Livability — Caroga Lake

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #870
• US rank: #16797

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing C- Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 23,087

Population outlook (Fulton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,132 people
• By 2030: 49,114 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 44,373 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 39,321 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 28,503 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 19,268 · -62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 4% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fulton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.9) · D 32.1% · R 67.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.2pp · 2024: -35.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.9 2020: R+31.4 2016: R+35.5 2012: R+10.5 2008: R+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 34.22%
• Current HPI: 315.1368
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1000.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $110,000 UNYREIS
• 2026-02-26 Relisted — UNYREIS
• 2026-01-09 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2025-11-12 Relisted — UNYREIS
• 2025-09-29 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2025-09-15 Listed $129,900 UNYREIS
• 2004-05-04 Sold (Public Records) $55,600 Public Records
• 1996-01-23 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,882 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.