7202 Notre Dame St · Keystone Heights, FL 32656

$49,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1999 0.34 ac lot Est $72k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Auction Property. Auction Property. Great Opportunity! This three bedroom two bath double wide manufactured home has 1,056 sq ft of living place and sits on a 0.34 acre lot in Highridge Estates just 2 miles from downtown Keystone Heights. The home has a covered front porch, storage sheds in the rear, and partially fenced backyard. The property needs renovation but has great potential! This property is now active in an online auction. All offers must be submitted through the property’s listing page on the auction website. Auction dates will be provided on that site. The sale will be subject to a 5% buyer’s premium pursuant to the Auction Terms and Conditions (minimums may apply). All auction bids will be processed subject to seller approval.

Key facts

• Water well
• Electric meter
• Septic

Tags

• SEPTIC
• WATER WELL
• ELECTRIC METER
• HIGHRIDGE ESTATES NEIGHBORHOOD
• 2 SHEDS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Tax information available (details withheld)
• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Septic tank; Electricity available
• Home design: Double wide manufactured home; Used as a single-family residence
• Exterior features: Lot of approximately 0.34 acres; No private pool

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Has cooling (type not specified)
• Interior features: Includes appliances (details not specified)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $863 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $49k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.1% vs local median 3.6% in Keystone Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#109 in FL, #1,684 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 321 active listings in the ZIP; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $29k; list at $50k implies a 75% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $49,151 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 74.13%
• DSCR: 4.30
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $71,808
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6393 Auburn Ave	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,104 (+4%)	10mo	$42,000	$38	78
7292 Skidmore St	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,064 (+1%)	2mo	$99,900	$94	72
6401 Cascade Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,056 (0%)	20mo	$162,000	$153	61
6429 Baylor Ave	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	924 (-12%)	4mo	$55,000	$60	60
6336 Bucknell Ave	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+9%)	4mo	$50,000	$43	60
6306 Baylor Ave	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,171 (+11%)	4mo	$123,000	$105	49
6324 Bowdoin Ave	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	924 (-12%)	16mo	$63,000	$68	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 74.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.36×
• Total profit: $46,962
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 77.8%
• Equity multiple: 9.01×
• Total profit: $111,982
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32656

• Home prices YoY: -7.4%
• Active inventory: 321
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,630 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$142 /mo · $1,704/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $863

Break-even live

Break-even rent $537

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $891	-5% $877	+0% $863	+5% $849	+10% $835
Rent	-10% $734	-5% $799	+0% $863	+5% $928	+10% $992
Rate	-1.0pp $888	-0.5pp $876	base $863	+0.5pp $850	+1.0pp $837

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,900 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,900 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,900 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,900 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,900 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,900 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,900 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,900 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $49,900 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,900 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,900 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,900 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-05-21
    listed $49,900 Active
15. 2026-01-05
    soldstatus $28,504 Closed 763-char remark

    Show marketing remark (763 chars)

    Auction Property. Auction Property. Great Opportunity! This three bedroom two bath double wide manufactured home has 1,056 sq ft of living place and sits on a 0.34 acre lot in Highridge Estates just 2 miles from downtown Keystone Heights. The home has a covered front porch, storage sheds in the rear, and partially fenced backyard. The property needs renovation but has great potential! This property is now active in an online auction. All offers must be submitted through the property’s listing page on the auction website. Auction dates will be provided on that site. The sale will be subject to a 5% buyer’s premium pursuant to the Auction Terms and Conditions (minimums may apply). All auction bids will be processed subject to seller approval.

16. 2025-12-30
    soldstatus $28,504 Closed 610-char remark

    Show marketing remark (610 chars)

    Auction Property. Great Opportunity! This three bedroom two bath double wide manufactured home has 1,056 sq ft of living place and sits on a 0.34 acre lot in Highridge Estates just 2 miles from downtown Keystone Heights. The home has a covered front porch, storage sheds in the rear, and partially fenced backyard. The property needs renovation but has great potential! potential! This property is now active in an online auction. The sale will be subject to a 5% buyer's premium pursuant to the Auction Terms and Conditions (minimums may apply). All auction bids will be processed subject to seller approval.

17. 2025-11-13
    status Pending 763-char remark

    Show marketing remark (610 chars)

    Auction Property. Great Opportunity! This three bedroom two bath double wide manufactured home has 1,056 sq ft of living place and sits on a 0.34 acre lot in Highridge Estates just 2 miles from downtown Keystone Heights. The home has a covered front porch, storage sheds in the rear, and partially fenced backyard. The property needs renovation but has great potential! potential! This property is now active in an online auction. The sale will be subject to a 5% buyer's premium pursuant to the Auction Terms and Conditions (minimums may apply). All auction bids will be processed subject to seller approval.

18. 2025-11-13
    status Pending 610-char remark

    Show marketing remark (610 chars)

    Auction Property. Great Opportunity! This three bedroom two bath double wide manufactured home has 1,056 sq ft of living place and sits on a 0.34 acre lot in Highridge Estates just 2 miles from downtown Keystone Heights. The home has a covered front porch, storage sheds in the rear, and partially fenced backyard. The property needs renovation but has great potential! potential! This property is now active in an online auction. The sale will be subject to a 5% buyer's premium pursuant to the Auction Terms and Conditions (minimums may apply). All auction bids will be processed subject to seller approval.

19. 2025-09-11
    listed $50,000 Active 763-char remark

    Show marketing remark (610 chars)

    Auction Property. Great Opportunity! This three bedroom two bath double wide manufactured home has 1,056 sq ft of living place and sits on a 0.34 acre lot in Highridge Estates just 2 miles from downtown Keystone Heights. The home has a covered front porch, storage sheds in the rear, and partially fenced backyard. The property needs renovation but has great potential! potential! This property is now active in an online auction. The sale will be subject to a 5% buyer's premium pursuant to the Auction Terms and Conditions (minimums may apply). All auction bids will be processed subject to seller approval.

20. 2025-09-11
    listed $50,000 Active 610-char remark

    Show marketing remark (610 chars)

    Auction Property. Great Opportunity! This three bedroom two bath double wide manufactured home has 1,056 sq ft of living place and sits on a 0.34 acre lot in Highridge Estates just 2 miles from downtown Keystone Heights. The home has a covered front porch, storage sheds in the rear, and partially fenced backyard. The property needs renovation but has great potential! potential! This property is now active in an online auction. The sale will be subject to a 5% buyer's premium pursuant to the Auction Terms and Conditions (minimums may apply). All auction bids will be processed subject to seller approval.

21. 2015-11-25
    soldstatus $39,000
22. 2015-10-29
    soldstatus $39,000 Sold
23. 2015-10-29
    soldstatus $39,000
24. 2015-09-10
    status Pending
25. 2015-04-08
    listed $44,900 Active
26. 2015-04-08
    price $39,500
27. 2015-03-31
    listed $39,500
28. 2008-07-25
    historical
29. 2007-03-01
    historical
30. 2007-03-01
    historical
31. 2006-12-01
    historical
32. 2006-08-04
    listed $87,500
33. 2006-08-04
    listed $87,500
34. 2005-08-18
    listed $16,900
35. 2005-08-17
    listed $16,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,704 · $142/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,704 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,559
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$1,704
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,565
• − Management: −$1,565
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $10,229
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,455
• After-tax cash flow: $7,903/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Keystone Heights

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #1684

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,630

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -27.65%
• Current HPI: 344.7744
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+195.3% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $49,900 realMLS
• 2026-01-05 Sold (MLS) $28,504 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-30 Sold (MLS) $28,504 realMLS
• 2025-11-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-13 Pending — realMLS
• 2025-09-11 Listed $50,000 realMLS
• 2025-09-11 Listed $50,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-25 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records
• 2015-10-29 Sold (MLS) $39,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-10-29 Sold (MLS) $39,000 realMLS
• 2015-09-10 Pending — realMLS
• 2015-04-08 Listed $44,900 realMLS
• 2015-04-08 Price Changed $39,500 realMLS
• 2015-03-31 Listed $39,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-07-25 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-03-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-03-01 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2006-12-01 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2006-08-04 Listed $87,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-08-04 Listed $87,500 realMLS
• 2005-08-18 Listed $16,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-08-17 Listed $16,900 realMLS

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,704 · +9.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.