20861 Kaidon Ln · North Fort Myers, FL 33917

$387,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,538 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 97 Days on market

Built 2006 5,401 sqft lot Est $341k · 13% over $376/mo HOA · 9% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.5/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover unparalleled Florida living in this beautifully appointed 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence nestled within the sought-after, gated community of Herons Glen. Step inside to find a home filled with thoughtful upgrades and an open, airy feel, perfect for entertaining or quiet relaxation. The true highlight is your private outdoor oasis: a gorgeous solar heated pool with expansive lanai offering spectacular, serene views of the lush golf course. Generator ready. Enjoy the privacy and security of a gated entrance and resort-style amenities including the championship golf course, fitness center, tennis, pickleball, bocce, a large pool, and the on-site restaurant and bar. With over 65 clubs

Key facts

• Gated community
• Gorgeous pool
• Expansive lanai

Tags

• PRIVATE OUTDOOR OASIS
• GORGEOUS POOL
• EXPANSIVE LANAI
• SPECTACULAR VIEWS
• GATED COMMUNITY
• CHAMPIONSHIP GOLF COURSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed (call/conditional)
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with quarterly fees; Association fees include cable TV, golf, irrigation water, grounds maintenance, recreation facilities, road maintenance, sewer, and street lights; Community amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, golf course, pool, spa/hot tub, tennis and pickleball courts, bocce, shuffleboard, putting greens, restaurant, billiards, hobby room, library, sidewalks, and onsite management; Senior community; Gated community with street lights; Approximately 1,370 units in the community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; 2 covered garage spaces
• Security: Security gate; Gated community
• Utilities: Cable available; High speed internet available; Underground utilities; Sewer assessment paid; Water assessment paid
• Home design: Single-story home; Entry level 1; Resale property; Faces east
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Lanai; Screened porch; Porch; Sprinkler/irrigation (automatic); Private pool (in-ground, concrete); Community pool; West exposure; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Guest quarters; Den
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Built-in features; Eat-in kitchen; Living/Dining room; Pantry; Shower only with separate shower; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments; High speed internet available; Split bedrooms; Single hung windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $387k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $242 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $387k).
• Recommended offer: $352k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.6% in North Fort Myers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#269 in FL, #4,409 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 841 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,964/mo this rent would consume 86% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) (locally 775% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $352,170 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.68%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $341,436
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20854 Kaidon Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,538 (0%)	4mo	$340,000	$221	95
20794 Kaidon Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,532 (-0%)	4mo	$342,500	$224	89
3511 Via Montana Way	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,492 (-3%)	1mo	$425,000	$285	86
20755 Kaidon Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,538 (0%)	14mo	$380,000	$247	82
3404 Crosswater Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,750 (+14%)	7mo	$395,000	$226	63
3512 Via Athena	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,537 (-0%)	15mo	$372,000	$242	61
3598 Crosswater Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,672 (+9%)	2mo	$300,000	$179	57
3615 Crosswater Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,672 (+9%)	3mo	$300,000	$179	55
20502 Sky Meadow Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,702 (+11%)	6mo	$377,500	$222	52
3610 Rollingwater Way	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,670 (+9%)	8mo	$274,500	$164	50
3655 Crosswater Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,670 (+9%)	8mo	$293,000	$175	47
3663 Crosswater Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,670 (+9%)	9mo	$312,170	$187	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.63% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-48,601
• Equity at exit: $57,703

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-27,714
• Equity at exit: $33,461

Cash invested: $108,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33917

• Home prices YoY: -30.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 841
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,964 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,029
• Tax from tax record: −$323 /mo · $3,881/yr
• Insurance: −$161
• HOA: −$376
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$832
• Net cashflow: $242

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,658

Max offer price $387,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $461	-5% $351	+0% $242	+5% $132	+10% $23
Rent	-10% $-72	-5% $85	+0% $242	+5% $398	+10% $555
Rate	-1.0pp $436	-0.5pp $340	base $242	+0.5pp $141	+1.0pp $39

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,750
• Closing costs: $11,610
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20719 Kaidon Ln North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1538	$4,000	$2.60	24d	1	0.16mi
20961 Skyler Dr North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	3.0	2133	$6,000	$2.81	24d	1	0.22mi
20333 Camino Torcido Loop North Fort Myers, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$3,800	$2.08	24d	1	0.85mi
20461 Camino Torcido Loop North Fort Myers, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,250	$1.23	24d	1	0.86mi
20728 Tisbury Ln North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	2133	$5,000	$2.34	15d	1	0.90mi
2481 Palo Duro Blvd North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$4,000	$2.76	21d	1	1.26mi
2481 Palo Duro Blvd North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$4,000	$2.76	16d	1	1.26mi
20559 Long Pond Rd North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1805	$2,295	$1.27	24d	1	1.31mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $376 · $4,512/yr
• Likely covers: poolgymsecurity

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-30
   status Active
3. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
4. 2026-01-30
   price $387,000
5. 2026-01-21
   price $398,900
6. 2026-01-14
   listed $413,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,881 · $323/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,881 · $323/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 31 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,571
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,678
• − Property taxes: −$3,881
• − Insurance: −$1,935
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,806
• − Management: −$3,806
• − HOA: −$4,512
• − Depreciation: −$11,258
• Taxable loss: −$3,305
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$793
• After-tax cash flow: $3,692/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — North Fort Myers

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #269
• US rank: #4409

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Fort Myers, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 57,035
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,380
• Household income: $55,000
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 775.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.28%
• Current HPI: 282.2895
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.63%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-6.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2026-04-30 Relisted — FORTMLS
• 2026-04-17 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $387,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $398,900 FORTMLS
• 2026-01-14 Listed $413,000 FORTMLS

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,881 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.