6580 Lincoln #18 · Palermo, CA 95966

$23,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 576 sqft · Manufactured · 87 Days on market

Built 1976 Est $21k · 13% over ↓ 41% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• ARV discount +1.5/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nicely updated cutie in a small, rural 55+ Mobile Home Park.

Key facts

• Built 1976
• Listed 86 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located at 6580 Lincoln #18, Oroville, CA; Directions reference: AKA 18 Fir Loop in Town & Country MHP; Coordinates: 39.451277, -121.552003
• Financial info: Land lease of $725 per month (park-managed)
• HOA & community: Senior community; Rural community; Park name: Town & Country; Manager approval required; Pets allowed: contact manager

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Water included in rent; Sewer included in rent; Sewer/septic status unknown; Other water source
• Home design: Mobile/manufactured home (Skyline Homes); Single-story; Entry level 1; Has a view
• Construction: Mobile home remains on site; Mobile dimensions approximately 12' x 48'
• Exterior features: Awning; Covered concrete porch; Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Gas range
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath with shower-in-tub
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace heating; Wall/window cooling
• Interior features: Carbon monoxide and smoke detectors; Resident manager; Two or more access exits; Turnkey condition; Estimated living area
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry; Stackable washer/dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $24k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $943 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $24k).
• Recommended offer: $22k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 54.5% vs local median 3.8% in Palermo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,219 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing B+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Palermo Union Elementary (town): math 20% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,149 of 1,400 in CA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 372 active listings in the ZIP; 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $162 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $705 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($22k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $1k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $22,090 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 54.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 172.06%
• DSCR: 8.66
• GRM: 1.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $20,736
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6368 Lincoln Blvd #12	0.22mi	2/1.0	560 (-3%)	12mo	$20,000	$36	75

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.56×
• Total profit: $56,303
• Equity at exit: $3,504

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 20.22×
• Total profit: $126,488
• Equity at exit: $2,032

Cash invested: $6,580 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95966

• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 1.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$123
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$29 /mo · $352/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $943

Break-even live

Break-even rent $206

Max offer price $23,500

Occupancy floor 28%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,875
• Closing costs: $705
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $23,500 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $23,500 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $23,500 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $23,500 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $23,500 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $23,500 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $23,500 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $23,500 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $23,500 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $23,500 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $23,500 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $23,500 Active 72 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $23,500 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $23,500 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $23,500 Active 68 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $23,500 Active 67 DOM
17. 2026-05-19
    price $23,500
18. 2026-03-24
    listed $24,999 Active
19. 2023-05-31
    soldstatus $26,000 Closed Sale 60-char remark

    Show marketing remark (60 chars)

    Nicely updated cutie in a small, rural 55+ Mobile Home Park.

20. 2023-04-28
    historical Active Under Contract 60-char remark

    Show marketing remark (60 chars)

    Nicely updated cutie in a small, rural 55+ Mobile Home Park.

21. 2023-03-22
    price $26,000 60-char remark

    Show marketing remark (60 chars)

    Nicely updated cutie in a small, rural 55+ Mobile Home Park.

22. 2023-03-13
    price $28,000 60-char remark

    Show marketing remark (60 chars)

    Nicely updated cutie in a small, rural 55+ Mobile Home Park.

23. 2023-03-04
    price $30,000 60-char remark

    Show marketing remark (60 chars)

    Nicely updated cutie in a small, rural 55+ Mobile Home Park.

24. 2023-03-01
    listed $39,900 Active 60-char remark

    Show marketing remark (60 chars)

    Nicely updated cutie in a small, rural 55+ Mobile Home Park.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 39 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,798
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,316
• − Property taxes: −$352
• − Insurance: −$118
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,344
• − Management: −$1,344
• − Depreciation: −$684
• Taxable income: $11,640
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,794
• After-tax cash flow: $8,528/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palermo Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0629540
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $39,628
• Composite: 25.26/100
• National rank: #12903
• State rank: #1149 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Palermo

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1219
• US rank: #26161

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palermo, CA
• County: Butte County · 175,030 people
• City population: 1,346
• Metro: Chico, CA
• Population (ZIP): 28,503
• Household income: $65,586
• Rent vs Own: 26.6% rent · 73.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 807.0

Population outlook (Butte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,527 people
• By 2030: 243,804 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 253,899 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 262,561 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 283,709 · +19.4%
• By 2100: 282,689 · +19.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 14% Asian 6% Native American 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butte

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.8% · R 49.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+1.7 2016: R+4.0 2012: R+3.9 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -284.58%
• Current HPI: 267.1415
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Chico, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-41.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $23,500 CRMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $24,999 CRMLS
• 2023-05-31 Sold (MLS) $26,000 CRMLS
• 2023-04-28 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2023-03-22 Price Changed $26,000 CRMLS
• 2023-03-13 Price Changed $28,000 CRMLS
• 2023-03-04 Price Changed $30,000 CRMLS
• 2023-03-01 Listed $39,900 CRMLS