133 Meadowlark Dr · Abilene, TX 79601

$59,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · SingleFamily · 125 Days on market

Built 2013 4,792 sqft lot ↓ 31% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Manufactured home with parking on lot. Front faces west.

Key facts

• 4,792 sq ft lot
• Built 2013
• Listed 125 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 40.5% vs local median 6.7% in Abilene — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#142 in TX, #4,037 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D, commute F.
• Abilene ISD (urban): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+43.4%/yr); 195 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,683/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 1240% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $414 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $52,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 40.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 122.06%
• DSCR: 6.43
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $281,808
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4157 Ranger Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,337 (-2%)	0mo	$274,990	$206	69
4181 Ranger Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,337 (-2%)	1mo	$274,990	$206	67
4201 Ranger Rd	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,337 (-2%)	1mo	$274,990	$206	67
4217 Ranger Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,337 (-2%)	1mo	$272,990	$204	66
4149 Ranger Rd	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,337 (-2%)	0mo	$274,990	$206	65
4225 Ranger Rd	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,337 (-2%)	1mo	$272,990	$204	65
4209 Ranger Rd	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,337 (-2%)	2mo	$272,990	$204	65
4173 Ranger Rd	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,337 (-2%)	1mo	$274,990	$206	64
4220 Ranger Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,537 (+12%)	7mo	$307,900	$200	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.75×
• Total profit: $113,169
• Equity at exit: $8,931

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 19.08×
• Total profit: $303,164
• Equity at exit: $5,179

Cash invested: $16,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79601

• Home prices YoY: -22.8%
• Rents YoY: 43.4%
• Active inventory: 195
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,683 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$75 /mo · $898/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$564
• Net cashflow: $1,706

Break-even live

Break-even rent $524

Max offer price $59,900

Occupancy floor 31%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,975
• Closing costs: $1,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4217 Ranger Rd Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1337	$2,749	$2.06	43d	1	0.65mi
4225 Ranger Rd Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1337	$2,749	$2.06	43d	1	0.66mi
527 Colorado St Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1337	$2,750	$2.06	43d	1	0.82mi
2702 N Judge Ely Blvd Abilene, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1025	$1,955	$1.91	13d	6	1.15mi
2609 Madison Ave Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1788	$4,000	$2.24	13d	1	1.21mi
1732 Jameson St Abilene, TX	3.0	1.5	1241	$2,200	$1.77	43d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-03-31
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-27
   price $59,900
3. 2025-11-25
   listed $69,900 Active
4. 2021-04-21
   historical
5. 2021-04-19
   listed $68,000 Active
6. 2019-04-16
   historical
7. 2019-01-22
   price $53,000
8. 2018-08-31
   price $55,000
9. 2018-08-29
   listed $86,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,201
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,355
• − Property taxes: −$898
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,576
• − Management: −$2,576
• − Depreciation: −$1,743
• Taxable income: $20,753
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,981
• After-tax cash flow: $15,491/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Abilene ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807440
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,782
• Composite: 27.71/100
• National rank: #6909
• State rank: #575 of 826 in TX

Livability — Abilene

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #4037

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Abilene, TX
• County: Taylor County · 136,672 people
• City population: 136,672
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,050
• Household income: $53,631
• Rent vs Own: 50.8% rent · 49.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1240.0

Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,270 people
• By 2030: 150,050 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 159,417 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 168,883 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 194,436 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 203,163 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 13% Two or more races 13% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.17%
• Current HPI: 214.4372
• Rent YoY: ▲ 43.38%
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-30.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $59,900 NTREIS
• 2025-11-25 Listed $69,900 NTREIS
• 2021-04-21 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2021-04-19 Listed $68,000 NTREIS
• 2019-04-16 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2019-01-22 Price Changed $53,000 NTREIS
• 2018-08-31 Price Changed $55,000 NTREIS
• 2018-08-29 Listed $86,500 NTREIS