249-14 38th Ave · New York, NY 11363

$525,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,480 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1985 3,185 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful single-family home in Little Neck. Offers 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms with a living room, dining room, and kitchen, no basement.

Key facts

• 3,185 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1985

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $525k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $525k).
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,302 units permitted in Queens County in 2024 (4,918 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,518/mo this rent would consume 63% of the median local household income ($125k/yr) (locally 262% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Queens County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $525,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.71%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,478,080
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
350 Arleigh Rd	0.16mi	4/2.5	2,282 (-8%)	11mo	$1,350,000	$592	68
367 Grosvenor St	0.35mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,410 (-3%)	6mo	$1,300,000	$539	66
350 Park Ln	0.14mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,300 (-7%)	10mo	$1,740,000	$757	64
23 Nassau Rd	0.43mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,410 (-3%)	4mo	$1,475,000	$612	63
39 Nassau Rd	0.37mi	4/3.5	2,321 (-6%)	8mo	$1,300,000	$560	60
101 Forest Rd	0.43mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,424 (-2%)	7mo	$1,500,000	$619	59
24038 Poplar St	0.46mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,606 (+5%)	5mo	$1,050,000	$403	59
38-47 Douglaston Pkwy	0.43mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,350 (-5%)	5mo	$1,275,000	$543	58
73 Jayson Ave	0.69mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,499 (+1%)	8mo	$1,490,000	$596	51
39-35 233 St	0.63mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,336 (-6%)	8mo	$1,240,000	$531	44
39-27 233rd St	0.62mi	4/3.0	2,208 (-11%)	8mo	$1,380,000	$625	42
60 Jayson Ave	0.72mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,114 (-15%)	7mo	$1,388,000	$657	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-9,005
• Equity at exit: $78,279

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $90,946
• Equity at exit: $45,392

Cash invested: $147,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11363

• Home prices YoY: -23.3%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,518 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,753
• Tax from tax record: −$988 /mo · $11,855/yr
• Insurance: −$219
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,369
• Net cashflow: $1,190

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,012

Max offer price $525,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $131,250
• Closing costs: $15,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2 Amherst Rd E Great Neck, NY	4.0	3.5	2607	$7,500	$2.88	1d	1	0.72mi
31 South Dr Unit NA Great Neck, NY	3.0	2.0	1900	$5,800	$3.05	20d	1	0.82mi
60 Highland Pl Great Neck, NY	5.0	3.0	1949	$6,000	$3.08	1d	1	0.87mi
18 Pond Park Rd Great Neck, NY	4.0	4.5	2894	$10,800	$3.73	17d	1	1.00mi
43-16 223rd St Unit 2nd Floor Flushing, NY	3.0	2.0	3267	$3,600	$1.10	24d	1	1.19mi
123 Middle Neck Rd Unit 304-5 Great Neck, NY	3.0	2.5	2915	$8,500	$2.92	43d	1	1.26mi
245-80 61st Ave Unit 2 Fl Flushing, NY	3.0	1.0	1703	$4,000	$2.35	24d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2025-09-26
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-26
   price $525,000
3. 2025-09-25
   status Active
4. 2025-06-27
   price $749,000
5. 2025-06-08
   price $525,000
6. 2025-05-27
   price $1,625,000
7. 2025-05-20
   listed $525,000 Active
8. 2018-05-12
   historical
9. 2017-09-30
   listed $595,000 New
10. 1987-08-07
    soldstatus $480,000
11. 1986-09-23
    soldstatus $321,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $11,855 · $988/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,855 · $988/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $78,219
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,408
• − Property taxes: −$11,855
• − Insurance: −$2,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,257
• − Management: −$6,257
• − Depreciation: −$15,273
• Taxable income: $6,543
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,570
• After-tax cash flow: $12,705/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Queens County · 1,914,869 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 7,223
• Household income: $125,015
• Rent vs Own: 26.8% rent · 73.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 262.0

Population outlook (Queens County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,546,320 people
• By 2030: 2,643,059 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 2,815,563 · +10.6%
• By 2050: 2,944,423 · +15.6%
• By 2075: 3,123,338 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 3,098,688 · +21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Asian 29% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 12% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 1% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 29% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Chinese 15% Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Queens

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.6) · D 62.3% · R 37.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 50.8pp · 2024: 24.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.6 2020: D+45.2 2016: D+53.4 2012: D+58.5 2008: D+50.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.14%
• Current HPI: 234.1655
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+63.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-26 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $525,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-25 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-27 Price Changed $749,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-08 Price Changed $525,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-27 Price Changed $1,625,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-20 Listed $525,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-12 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-09-30 Listed $595,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1987-08-07 Sold (Public Records) $480,000 Public Records
• 1986-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $321,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,855 · -2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.