381 Moses Mill Rd · Chatham, VA 24531

$112,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,084 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 81 Days on market

Built 1930 8,712 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.1/30.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great starter home or investment property with great curb appeal! Private and peaceful secluded hideaway but so convenient to the charming town of Chatham. All replacement windows, good roof, LARGE bedrooms upstairs, open eat-in kitchen, updated bathroom, cozy living room with laminate flooring and fresh paint throughout. Room on main level could be office or a 3rd bedroom if you add closet or armoire. Your front porch is a great place to relax and enjoy the sounds of nature. Downstairs a roomy basement provides you laundry facilities and plenty of space for workshop, craft area, storage, etc. Privacy fence in front yard, masonry sidewalks, and roomy backyard, great for kid play or maybe some chickens!

Key facts

• Spacious living area
• Expansive yard
• Rural tranquility

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• EXPANSIVE YARD
• RURAL TRANQUILITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $112k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $318 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $112k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 5.6% in Chatham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#268 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, schools A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pittsylvania County Public School District (rural): math 65% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #22 of 131 in VA (top 17%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 72 units permitted in Pittsylvania County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $778 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pittsylvania County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,750 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.11%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $1,973
• Equity at exit: $16,774

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $27,601
• Equity at exit: $9,727

Cash invested: $31,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24531

• Home prices YoY: -20.7%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$590
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $393/yr
• Insurance: −$47
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $318

Break-even live

Break-even rent $848

Max offer price $112,500

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $382	-5% $350	+0% $318	+5% $286	+10% $254
Rent	-10% $219	-5% $269	+0% $318	+5% $367	+10% $417
Rate	-1.0pp $375	-0.5pp $347	base $318	+0.5pp $289	+1.0pp $259

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,125
• Closing costs: $3,375
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
315 S Main St Chatham, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0	735	$1,250	$1.70	44d	1	0.69mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2024-09-12
   soldstatus $125,000
2. 2024-07-08
   status Pending
3. 2024-05-15
   soldstatus $80,500
4. 2024-04-18
   listed $112,500 Active
5. 2023-10-23
   soldstatus $64,000 Closed 712-char remark

   Show marketing remark (712 chars)

   Great starter home or investment property with great curb appeal! Private and peaceful secluded hideaway but so convenient to the charming town of Chatham. All replacement windows, good roof, LARGE bedrooms upstairs, open eat-in kitchen, updated bathroom, cozy living room with laminate flooring and fresh paint throughout. Room on main level could be office or a 3rd bedroom if you add closet or armoire. Your front porch is a great place to relax and enjoy the sounds of nature. Downstairs a roomy basement provides you laundry facilities and plenty of space for workshop, craft area, storage, etc. Privacy fence in front yard, masonry sidewalks, and roomy backyard, great for kid play or maybe some chickens!

6. 2023-09-29
   price $79,900 712-char remark

   Show marketing remark (712 chars)

   Great starter home or investment property with great curb appeal! Private and peaceful secluded hideaway but so convenient to the charming town of Chatham. All replacement windows, good roof, LARGE bedrooms upstairs, open eat-in kitchen, updated bathroom, cozy living room with laminate flooring and fresh paint throughout. Room on main level could be office or a 3rd bedroom if you add closet or armoire. Your front porch is a great place to relax and enjoy the sounds of nature. Downstairs a roomy basement provides you laundry facilities and plenty of space for workshop, craft area, storage, etc. Privacy fence in front yard, masonry sidewalks, and roomy backyard, great for kid play or maybe some chickens!

7. 2023-09-07
   price $84,900 712-char remark

   Show marketing remark (712 chars)

   Great starter home or investment property with great curb appeal! Private and peaceful secluded hideaway but so convenient to the charming town of Chatham. All replacement windows, good roof, LARGE bedrooms upstairs, open eat-in kitchen, updated bathroom, cozy living room with laminate flooring and fresh paint throughout. Room on main level could be office or a 3rd bedroom if you add closet or armoire. Your front porch is a great place to relax and enjoy the sounds of nature. Downstairs a roomy basement provides you laundry facilities and plenty of space for workshop, craft area, storage, etc. Privacy fence in front yard, masonry sidewalks, and roomy backyard, great for kid play or maybe some chickens!

8. 2023-08-22
   price $88,900 712-char remark

   Show marketing remark (712 chars)

   Great starter home or investment property with great curb appeal! Private and peaceful secluded hideaway but so convenient to the charming town of Chatham. All replacement windows, good roof, LARGE bedrooms upstairs, open eat-in kitchen, updated bathroom, cozy living room with laminate flooring and fresh paint throughout. Room on main level could be office or a 3rd bedroom if you add closet or armoire. Your front porch is a great place to relax and enjoy the sounds of nature. Downstairs a roomy basement provides you laundry facilities and plenty of space for workshop, craft area, storage, etc. Privacy fence in front yard, masonry sidewalks, and roomy backyard, great for kid play or maybe some chickens!

9. 2023-08-18
   price $94,900 712-char remark

   Show marketing remark (712 chars)

   Great starter home or investment property with great curb appeal! Private and peaceful secluded hideaway but so convenient to the charming town of Chatham. All replacement windows, good roof, LARGE bedrooms upstairs, open eat-in kitchen, updated bathroom, cozy living room with laminate flooring and fresh paint throughout. Room on main level could be office or a 3rd bedroom if you add closet or armoire. Your front porch is a great place to relax and enjoy the sounds of nature. Downstairs a roomy basement provides you laundry facilities and plenty of space for workshop, craft area, storage, etc. Privacy fence in front yard, masonry sidewalks, and roomy backyard, great for kid play or maybe some chickens!

10. 2023-08-03
    listed $99,000 Active 712-char remark

    Show marketing remark (712 chars)

    Great starter home or investment property with great curb appeal! Private and peaceful secluded hideaway but so convenient to the charming town of Chatham. All replacement windows, good roof, LARGE bedrooms upstairs, open eat-in kitchen, updated bathroom, cozy living room with laminate flooring and fresh paint throughout. Room on main level could be office or a 3rd bedroom if you add closet or armoire. Your front porch is a great place to relax and enjoy the sounds of nature. Downstairs a roomy basement provides you laundry facilities and plenty of space for workshop, craft area, storage, etc. Privacy fence in front yard, masonry sidewalks, and roomy backyard, great for kid play or maybe some chickens!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $393 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $923 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: +$530/yr (+$44/mo · 135.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,302
• − Property taxes: −$393
• − Insurance: −$562
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,200
• − Management: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$3,273
• Taxable income: $2,070
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$497
• After-tax cash flow: $3,318/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pittsylvania County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102940
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,672
• Composite: 59.77/100
• National rank: #900
• State rank: #22 of 131 in VA

Livability — Chatham

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #9452

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,107

Population outlook (Pittsylvania County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,725 people
• By 2030: 56,388 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 51,088 · -13.0%
• By 2050: 45,875 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 36,555 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 28,288 · -51.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pittsylvania

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.1) · D 28.1% · R 71.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.1pp toward R · 2008: -24.0pp · 2024: -43.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.1 2020: R+39.8 2016: R+39.6 2012: R+27.5 2008: R+24.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.86%
• Current HPI: 172.2543
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+26.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2024-09-12 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2024-07-08 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2024-05-15 Sold (Public Records) $80,500 Public Records
• 2024-04-18 Listed $112,500 CVRMLS
• 2023-10-23 Sold (MLS) $64,000 DRRAR
• 2023-09-29 Price Changed $79,900 DRRAR
• 2023-09-07 Price Changed $84,900 DRRAR
• 2023-08-22 Price Changed $88,900 DRRAR
• 2023-08-18 Price Changed $94,900 DRRAR
• 2023-08-03 Listed $99,000 DRRAR

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $393 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.