1055 Lockhaven Dr N #34 · Keizer, OR 97303

$89,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 72 Days on market

Built 1975 $71/sqft · 123% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Unit #34 -- Generous sized workshop + Detached 2-car garage in 55+ Mfg Home Park in the very desirable Keizer! Fully fenced private back yard w/large deck allows for family gatherings, gardening, or just listening to the birds! Home is ADA accessible with: Wheelchair Lift (negotiable w/acceptable offer), Ramp from deck to back yard, Walk-In Showers, & ADA Toilets. Square footage of home includes additional bonus room w/slider to front, and door to back. Financing Available. Cool off in the summer with your friends and neighbors at the Community Pool! Qualifying Income for Park = 3x Park Rent (park rent = $1248/mo). Park Rent includes: Water/Sewer/Garbage See attached for Park Rules and how to apply.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Bonus room
• 3 garage spots

Tags

• DETACHED 2-CAR GARAGE
• GENEROUS SIZED WORKSHOP
• FULLY FENCED PRIVATE BACK YARD
• BONUS ROOM
• COMMUNITY POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $819 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.3% vs local median 2.9% in Keizer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#56 in OR, #1,918 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D+, commute D+.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 176 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $69k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,660 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.45%
• DSCR: 2.76
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $48,000
• List price: $89,000
• Delta: 85.42%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5510 Windsor Is N #30	0.02mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+8%)	1mo	$18,000	$13	81
1055 Lockhaven Dr N #69	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+8%)	4mo	$33,000	$25	79
1055 Lockhaven Dr NE #56	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+8%)	4mo	$40,500	$30	78
1055 Lockhaven Dr N #41	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+8%)	4mo	$55,000	$41	78
1055 Lockhaven Dr	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+8%)	4mo	$40,500	$30	76
1055 N Lockhaven Dr #67	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+8%)	10mo	$59,000	$44	74
5056 Briarwood Cir #21	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,333 (+7%)	12mo	$173,000	$130	58
5355 River Rd NE #101	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	5mo	$41,000	$31	57
5355 River Rd N #15	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,140 (-9%)	1mo	$8,000	$7	54
5026 Briarwood Cir N #36	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,144 (-8%)	12mo	$95,000	$83	52
5063 N Briarwood Cir	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-14%)	10mo	$127,500	$118	46
5063 Briarwood Cir N #63	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-14%)	11mo	$127,500	$118	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $39,061
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.28×
• Total profit: $106,629
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97303

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 176
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,746 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $673/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $819

Break-even live

Break-even rent $709

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $870	-5% $844	+0% $819	+5% $794	+10% $769
Rent	-10% $681	-5% $750	+0% $819	+5% $888	+10% $957
Rate	-1.0pp $864	-0.5pp $842	base $819	+0.5pp $796	+1.0pp $773

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1063 Koala St N Keizer, OR	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1065	$1,525	$1.43	5d	3	0.23mi
1102 Orchard Ct N Keizer, OR	2.0–3.0	1.0	955	$1,895	$1.98	44d	1	0.34mi
861 Chemawa Rd N Unit 881 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	800	$1,495	$1.87	22d	1	0.50mi
295 Lakepoint Pl N Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	936	$1,650	$1.76	24d	1	0.60mi
4995 Delight St N Unit 4995-204 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	870	$1,295	$1.49	44d	1	0.63mi
205 Lakepoint Pl N Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	936	$1,650	$1.76	15d	1	0.69mi
208 Lakepoint Pl N Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	936	$1,650	$1.76	2d	2	0.71mi
180 Sandy Dr N Unit 196 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	875	$1,300	$1.49	24d	1	0.75mi
597 Rose Park Ln NE Unit 257-636 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.5	875	$1,300	$1.49	44d	1	0.85mi
597 Rose Park Ln NE Unit 257-614 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.5	875	$1,300	$1.49	15d	1	0.85mi
597 Rose Park Ln NE Unit 257-664 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	840	$1,250	$1.49	15d	1	0.85mi
790 Lockhaven Dr NE Keizer, OR	2.0	1.5	1050	$2,024	$1.93	11d	11	0.88mi
600 Lockhaven Dr NE Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	834	$1,399	$1.68	44d	1	0.94mi
4525 Rivercrest Dr N Unit 4525 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	720	$1,295	$1.80	44d	1	1.00mi
5955 Trail Ave NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	918	$1,550	$1.69	24d	1	1.06mi
898 Lockhaven Dr NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	903	$1,550	$1.72	15d	3	1.07mi
5799 Trail Ave NE Unit 5819-304 Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	952	$1,695	$1.78	24d	1	1.07mi
5965 Trail Ave NE Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	1005	$1,500	$1.49	44d	1	1.08mi
5975 Trail Ave NE Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	918	$1,500	$1.63	22d	1	1.10mi
5945 Trail Ave NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	1005	$1,500	$1.49	44d	1	1.10mi
6766 Fenwick Ct N Keizer, OR	4.0	2.0	1488	$2,500	$1.68	24d	1	1.11mi
5925 Trail Ave NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	918	$1,550	$1.69	8d	1	1.15mi
5905 Trail Ave NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	1005	$1,500	$1.49	44d	1	1.16mi
776 Dearborn Ave NE Keizer, OR	3.0	1.0	1230	$2,300	$1.87	44d	1	1.18mi
892 Foothill Ct NE Keizer, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	946	$1,825	$1.93	2d	10	1.20mi
491 Marino Dr N Unit 495 Keizer, OR	3.0	2.0	1285	$2,350	$1.83	15d	1	1.21mi
6800 Wheatland Rd N Keizer, OR	2.0	1.5	986	$1,525	$1.55	17d	1	1.32mi
589 Greenwood Dr NE Unit Greenwood Dr NE unit 37 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	850	$1,250	$1.47	44d	1	1.34mi
6700 Hidden Creek Loop NE Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0–2.0	805	$1,612	$2.00	2d	12	1.37mi
6701 Hidden Creek Loop NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	860	$1,600	$1.86	2d	4	1.39mi
4928 13th Ave NE Keizer, OR	4.0	1.5	1312	$2,425	$1.85	22d	1	1.40mi
1220 Mcgee Ct NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	935	$1,399	$1.50	44d	1	1.44mi
4165 River Rd N Keizer, OR	2.0	1.5	950	$1,395	$1.47	24d	1	1.48mi
1236 Mcgee Ct NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	935	$1,399	$1.50	44d	1	1.49mi
1144 Mcgee Ct NE Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	901	$1,400	$1.55	22d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $89,000 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,000 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,000 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,000 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,000 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $89,000 Active 50 DOM
16. 2026-05-16
    price $89,000 720-char remark

    Show marketing remark (720 chars)

    Unit #34 -- Generous sized workshop + Detached 2-car garage in 55+ Mfg Home Park in the very desirable Keizer! Fully fenced private back yard w/large deck allows for family gatherings, gardening, or just listening to the birds! Home is ADA accessible with: Wheelchair Lift (negotiable w/acceptable offer), Ramp from deck to back yard, Walk-In Showers, & ADA Toilets. Square footage of home includes additional bonus room w/slider to front, and door to back. Financing Available. Cool off in the summer with your friends and neighbors at the Community Pool! Qualifying Income for Park = 3x Park Rent (park rent = $1248/mo). Park Rent includes: Water/Sewer/Garbage See attached for Park Rules and how to apply.

17. 2026-04-11
    listed $92,000 Active 785-char remark

    Show marketing remark (785 chars)

    Generous sized workshop + Detached 2-car garage in 55+ Mfg Home Park in the very desirable Keizer! Fully fenced private back yard w/large deck allows for family gatherings, gardening, or just listening to the birds! Home is ADA accessible with: Wheelchair Lift (negotiable w/acceptable offer), Ramp from deck to back yard, Walk-In Showers, & ADA Toilets. Square footage of home includes additional bonus room w/slider to front, and door to back. Financing Available. Cool off in the summer with your friends and neighbors at the Community Pool!Qualifying Income for Park = 3x Park Rent (park rent = $1248/mo). Park Rent includes: Water/Sewer/Garbage Park Website: WildWoodIPGLiving.com See attached for Park Rules and how to apply. Park Mgr: Kaycee Edgerton 503-393-4192

18. 2026-04-10
    listed $92,000 Active 720-char remark

    Show marketing remark (720 chars)

    Unit #34 -- Generous sized workshop + Detached 2-car garage in 55+ Mfg Home Park in the very desirable Keizer! Fully fenced private back yard w/large deck allows for family gatherings, gardening, or just listening to the birds! Home is ADA accessible with: Wheelchair Lift (negotiable w/acceptable offer), Ramp from deck to back yard, Walk-In Showers, & ADA Toilets. Square footage of home includes additional bonus room w/slider to front, and door to back. Financing Available. Cool off in the summer with your friends and neighbors at the Community Pool! Qualifying Income for Park = 3x Park Rent (park rent = $1248/mo). Park Rent includes: Water/Sewer/Garbage See attached for Park Rules and how to apply.

19. 2025-06-25
    soldstatus $69,000 Closed
20. 2025-06-25
    soldstatus $69,000 Sold
21. 2025-05-24
    historical Active under Contract
22. 2025-05-24
    status Pending
23. 2025-05-15
    price $69,000
24. 2025-05-15
    listed $69,000 Active
25. 2025-05-15
    listed $69,000,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $673 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $863 · $72/mo
• Expected delta: +$191/yr (+$16/mo · 28.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,949
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$673
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,676
• − Management: −$1,676
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $8,905
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,137
• After-tax cash flow: $7,694/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem-Keizer SD 24J
• NCES district ID: 4110820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,632
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #103 of 183 in OR

Livability — Keizer

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #56
• US rank: #1918

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute D+ Cost of living C+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Keizer, OR
• County: Marion County · 258,219 people
• City population: 40,659
• Metro: Salem, OR
• Population (ZIP): 40,659
• Household income: $84,871
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 14% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -428.84%
• Current HPI: 292.0057
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.74%
• Metro: Salem, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+29.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $89,000 RMLS
• 2026-04-11 Listed $92,000 WVMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $92,000 RMLS
• 2025-06-25 Sold (MLS) $69,000 WVMLS
• 2025-06-25 Sold (MLS) $69,000 RMLS
• 2025-05-24 Contingent — WVMLS
• 2025-05-24 Pending — RMLS
• 2025-05-15 Price Changed $69,000 WVMLS
• 2025-05-15 Listed $69,000,000 WVMLS
• 2025-05-15 Listed $69,000 RMLS

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $673 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.