1608 Martinez Dr · Lillian, AL 36549

$159,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 910 sqft · Manufactured public records · 77 Days on market

Built 1978 0.27 ac lot $175/sqft · 23% below area Est $206k · 23% under $74/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Coastal beach home offering 920 sq ft with 2 bedrooms and 2 baths, featuring a large living area and split bedroom floor plan for added privacy, situated on a spacious lot with a generous backyard and room to park a boat or RV, this property has been replumbed and offers a great opportunity for a starter home or investment. This home needs some love and serves as a blank canvas with plenty of potential for customization and improvement. ALL OFFERS WILL BE CONSIDERED. Come see your opportunity to own a piece of Spanish Cove. Located in the beach neighborhood, with 24-hour security. This coastal gem is just 5 minutes from the Lillian boat launch and only 15 minutes from the sugar-white beaches of the Gulf of Mexico. Discover this pet-friendly, beachside neighborhood, nestled on the Alabama/Florida line, Spanish Cove is a golf cart-friendly community where Residents enjoy access to a private beach, a 500-foot fishing pier, two clubhouses, a year-round swimming pool, pickleball and tennis courts, a basketball court, fitness facility, laundry room, playground, shuffleboard, and miles of nature trails. The community also hosts a variety of social and recreational activities including aquatic classes, bingo, card games, live music, book clubs, game nights, a garden club, and group travel opportunities. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence or a peaceful coastal getaway, this is a great place to call home. This is a must see. This is an equitable interest listing where seller is selling only an option contract or assigning an interest in a contract, such as a purchase and sale agreement or a contract for deed. In this situation, the seller does not have legal title to the property, but the equitable interest gives seller the right to acquire legal title. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

Key facts

• Replumbed
• Large living area
• Private beach

Tags

• LARGE LIVING AREA
• SPLIT BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS LOT
• GENEROUS BACKYARD
• REPLUMBED
• PRIVATE BEACH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $112 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $149k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.1% in Lillian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#97 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $159k implies a 439% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,460 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.03%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $205,656
• List price: $159,000
• Delta: -22.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1686 Santa Cruz Dr	0.22mi	2/2.0	952 (+5%)	5mo	$165,000	$173	78
1561 Valencia Dr	0.12mi	2/2.0	980 (+8%)	6mo	$129,000	$132	77
1413 Ridgewood Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	924 (+2%)	8mo	$85,000	$92	66
741 Buena Vista Dr	0.53mi	1/1.5 (-1)	922 (+1%)	1mo	$134,000	$145	65
1347 Ridgewood Dr	0.39mi	2/2.0	840 (-8%)	7mo	$180,000	$214	63
657 Escambia Loop	0.43mi	2/1.0	864 (-5%)	8mo	$150,000	$174	61
685 Escambia Loop	0.50mi	2/2.0	1,000 (+10%)	2mo	$152,000	$152	58
476 Buena Vista Dr	0.62mi	2/1.0	950 (+4%)	3mo	$130,000	$137	58
282 Buena Vista Cir	0.45mi	2/2.0	993 (+9%)	11mo	$160,000	$161	55
106 Portage Cir	0.68mi	2/1.0	940 (+3%)	7mo	$145,000	$154	52
241 Defuniak Loop	0.61mi	2/1.0	1,016 (+12%)	3mo	$160,000	$157	46
420 Buena Vista Dr	0.62mi	2/1.0	804 (-12%)	3mo	$143,770	$179	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-18,546
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-6,659
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36549

• Home prices YoY: -7.6%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,627 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$199 /mo · $2,385/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$74
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $112

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,485

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $74 · $888/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $159,000 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,000 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,000 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,000 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,000 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $159,000 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,000 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,000 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 59 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 58 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $159,000 Active 57 DOM
18. 2026-05-15
    price $159,000 1841-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1841 chars)

    Coastal beach home offering 920 sq ft with 2 bedrooms and 2 baths, featuring a large living area and split bedroom floor plan for added privacy, situated on a spacious lot with a generous backyard and room to park a boat or RV, this property has been replumbed and offers a great opportunity for a starter home or investment. This home needs some love and serves as a blank canvas with plenty of potential for customization and improvement. ALL OFFERS WILL BE CONSIDERED. Come see your opportunity to own a piece of Spanish Cove. Located in the beach neighborhood, with 24-hour security. This coastal gem is just 5 minutes from the Lillian boat launch and only 15 minutes from the sugar-white beaches of the Gulf of Mexico. Discover this pet-friendly, beachside neighborhood, nestled on the Alabama/Florida line, Spanish Cove is a golf cart-friendly community where Residents enjoy access to a private beach, a 500-foot fishing pier, two clubhouses, a year-round swimming pool, pickleball and tennis courts, a basketball court, fitness facility, laundry room, playground, shuffleboard, and miles of nature trails. The community also hosts a variety of social and recreational activities including aquatic classes, bingo, card games, live music, book clubs, game nights, a garden club, and group travel opportunities. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence or a peaceful coastal getaway, this is a great place to call home. This is a must see. This is an equitable interest listing where seller is selling only an option contract or assigning an interest in a contract, such as a purchase and sale agreement or a contract for deed. In this situation, the seller does not have legal title to the property, but the equitable interest gives seller the right to acquire legal title. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

19. 2026-04-03
    listed $164,900 Active 1841-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1841 chars)

    Coastal beach home offering 920 sq ft with 2 bedrooms and 2 baths, featuring a large living area and split bedroom floor plan for added privacy, situated on a spacious lot with a generous backyard and room to park a boat or RV, this property has been replumbed and offers a great opportunity for a starter home or investment. This home needs some love and serves as a blank canvas with plenty of potential for customization and improvement. ALL OFFERS WILL BE CONSIDERED. Come see your opportunity to own a piece of Spanish Cove. Located in the beach neighborhood, with 24-hour security. This coastal gem is just 5 minutes from the Lillian boat launch and only 15 minutes from the sugar-white beaches of the Gulf of Mexico. Discover this pet-friendly, beachside neighborhood, nestled on the Alabama/Florida line, Spanish Cove is a golf cart-friendly community where Residents enjoy access to a private beach, a 500-foot fishing pier, two clubhouses, a year-round swimming pool, pickleball and tennis courts, a basketball court, fitness facility, laundry room, playground, shuffleboard, and miles of nature trails. The community also hosts a variety of social and recreational activities including aquatic classes, bingo, card games, live music, book clubs, game nights, a garden club, and group travel opportunities. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence or a peaceful coastal getaway, this is a great place to call home. This is a must see. This is an equitable interest listing where seller is selling only an option contract or assigning an interest in a contract, such as a purchase and sale agreement or a contract for deed. In this situation, the seller does not have legal title to the property, but the equitable interest gives seller the right to acquire legal title. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

20. 2014-11-07
    soldstatus $29,500 417-char remark

    Show marketing remark (417 chars)

    Huge lot with plenty of space for a garden. Good sized storage building! Home has deck on front & ramp to the back door. Good sized living room & split floor plan. Kitchen has extra built-ins and dining area. Full sized washer & dryer. Fun beachy colors and partially furnished. Amenities include pool, tennis courts, fishing pier and much more. Needs some updating but everything works! Great Deal!

21. 2013-01-25
    listed $33,500 417-char remark

    Show marketing remark (417 chars)

    Huge lot with plenty of space for a garden. Good sized storage building! Home has deck on front & ramp to the back door. Good sized living room & split floor plan. Kitchen has extra built-ins and dining area. Full sized washer & dryer. Fun beachy colors and partially furnished. Amenities include pool, tennis courts, fishing pier and much more. Needs some updating but everything works! Great Deal!

22. 2007-07-24
    soldstatus $40,000
23. 1996-04-04
    soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,520
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$2,385
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,562
• − Management: −$1,562
• − HOA: −$888
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$1,203
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$289
• After-tax cash flow: $1,636/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Lillian

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #97
• US rank: #11371

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 6,152
• Population (ZIP): 6,152

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Italian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.45%
• Current HPI: 285.5902
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+297.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $159,000 BCAR
• 2026-04-03 Listed $164,900 BCAR
• 2014-11-07 Sold (MLS) $29,500 BCAR
• 2013-01-25 Listed $33,500 BCAR
• 2007-07-24 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 1996-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $186 · +36.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.