418 W Austin St · Bellville, TX 77418

$149,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,819 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 193 Days on market

Built 1940 0.33 ac lot $82/sqft · 55% below area ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Conveniently located in Bellville. This house sits on .3 acres and offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. When you walk in you are greeted by an open living room that offers an abundance of natural light. All bedrooms are spacious and each have their own attached closets. The home has a metal roof and a detached carport with a lot of space. Located close to local schools, shops, and parks, this home is great for a family.

Key facts

• Open living room
• Metal roof
• Detached carport

Tags

• OPEN LIVING ROOM
• NATURAL LIGHT
• METAL ROOF
• DETACHED CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $113 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 1.5% in Bellville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#676 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Bellville ISD (town): math 35% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #407 of 826 in TX (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 410 units permitted in Austin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Austin County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 193 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 193 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.85%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $328,206
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -54.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
418 W Austin St	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,819 (0%)	0mo	$149,000	$82	96
411 N Baron St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,818 (-0%)	3mo	$175,000	$96	68
228 W Palm	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,911 (+5%)	15mo	$345,000	$181	60
114 E Obryant St	0.35mi	3/1.0	1,550 (-15%)	0mo	$289,000	$186	59
153 Machemehl Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,938 (+6%)	9mo	$269,900	$139	53
313 Regal Ct	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,562 (-14%)	3mo	$349,999	$224	43
1052 S Masonic St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,692 (-7%)	16mo	$289,500	$171	41
711 S Tesch St	0.74mi	3/2.0	2,022 (+11%)	5mo	$355,000	$176	39
212 N Miller St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-14%)	10mo	$323,000	$207	38
2013 Royal Ct	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,575 (-13%)	13mo	$295,000	$187	35
110 Meadow Dr	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,587 (-13%)	6mo	$254,900	$161	34
32 W Hacienda Rd	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,626 (-11%)	21mo	$345,000	$212	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-16,858
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-5,024
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77418

• Active inventory: 182
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$182 /mo · $2,190/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,457

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $197	-5% $155	+0% $113	+5% $71	+10% $29
Rent	-10% $-14	-5% $50	+0% $113	+5% $176	+10% $239
Rate	-1.0pp $188	-0.5pp $151	base $113	+0.5pp $74	+1.0pp $35

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
317 N Mechanic St Unit 1 Bellville, TX	3.0	2.0	1881	$1,600	$0.85	25d	1	0.91mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-09
   statusdays on market $149,000 Pending 193 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active Under Contract 192 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,000 Active Under Contract 191 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $149,000 Active Under Contract 187 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $149,000 Active Under Contract 186 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $149,000 Active Under Contract 185 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $149,000 Active Under Contract 184 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $149,000 Active Under Contract 183 DOM
9. 2026-05-04
   historical Active Under Contract 426-char remark

   Show marketing remark (426 chars)

   Conveniently located in Bellville. This house sits on .3 acres and offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. When you walk in you are greeted by an open living room that offers an abundance of natural light. All bedrooms are spacious and each have their own attached closets. The home has a metal roof and a detached carport with a lot of space. Located close to local schools, shops, and parks, this home is great for a family.

10. 2026-02-05
    price $149,000 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    Conveniently located in Bellville. This house sits on .3 acres and offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. When you walk in you are greeted by an open living room that offers an abundance of natural light. All bedrooms are spacious and each have their own attached closets. The home has a metal roof and a detached carport with a lot of space. Located close to local schools, shops, and parks, this home is great for a family.

11. 2025-11-28
    listed $160,000 Active 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    Conveniently located in Bellville. This house sits on .3 acres and offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. When you walk in you are greeted by an open living room that offers an abundance of natural light. All bedrooms are spacious and each have their own attached closets. The home has a metal roof and a detached carport with a lot of space. Located close to local schools, shops, and parks, this home is great for a family.

12. 2022-02-11
    soldstatus
13. 2007-04-20
    soldstatus
14. 2004-08-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,190 · $182/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,727 · $227/mo
• Expected delta: +$537/yr (+$45/mo · 24.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone A · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$2,190
• − Insurance: −$2,248
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable loss: −$990
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$238
• After-tax cash flow: $1,592/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bellville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809810
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,064
• Composite: 34.34/100
• National rank: #5228
• State rank: #407 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bellville

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #676
• US rank: #12694

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bellville, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,467

Population outlook (Austin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,206 people
• By 2030: 33,459 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 35,809 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 37,933 · +17.8%
• By 2075: 44,179 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 47,870 · +48.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 8% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Austin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.7) · D 18.3% · R 81.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.8pp toward R · 2008: -50.9pp · 2024: -62.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.7 2020: R+58.4 2016: R+59.7 2012: R+60.3 2008: R+50.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -153.20%
• Current HPI: 196.2441
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $149,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-28 Listed $160,000 HARMLS
• 2022-02-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-04-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-08-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,190 · +8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.