🏷️ Likely Rental
338 Juless St · Danville, VA
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $666 – $1,236
Heat risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Hot days now (above 104°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 18 days/yr
Wind risk 4/10 · Minor
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 9.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 0 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 1 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- 1% rule +8.3/10.0
- Livability +3.9/5.0
- Schools +3.0/10.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$69,900
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Great investment property. Current long term tenant paying $600 a month. This property has had some renovations done. Being Sold as-is. Less than a mile from the casino.
Key facts
- Long term tenant
- Investment property
- Renovations
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $320 ($4k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($927 rent vs $70k).
- Recommended offer: $64k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 5.2% in Danville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 77/100 on livability (#91 in VA, #2,952 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, crime D-, commute F.
- Danville City Public School District (town): math 30% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #128 of 131 in VA (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
- Zoned schools: Schoolfield Elementary (math 22% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,004 of 1,108 statewide, top 91%, 500 students, 98% FRL); O. Trent Bonner Middle (math 33% / reading 53%, grade D-, #288 of 342 statewide, top 85%, 678 students, 91% FRL); George Washington High (math 44% / reading 54%, grade D, #300 of 319 statewide, top 94%, 1,309 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 92% FRL vs 71% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
- Market conditions: 249 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 54 units permitted in Danville city in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Danville County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 2 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
- Current owner paid $18k; list at $70k implies a 288% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
- Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.33% ✓
- Cap rate
- 11.79%
- Cash-on-cash
- 19.64%
- DSCR
- 1.87
- GRM
- 6.3
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $88,150
- List price
- $69,900
- Delta
- -20.70%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 104 Albert St | 0.05mi | 2/1.0 (+1) | 812 (+5%) | 15mo | $60,000 | $74 | 72 |
| 1031 Lanier Ave | 0.36mi | 2/1.0 (+1) | 810 (+4%) | 0mo | $149,900 | $185 | 71 |
| 342 Juless St | 0.01mi | 2/1.0 (+1) | 885 (+14%) | 23mo | $80,000 | $90 | 52 |
| 319 Kemper Rd | 0.33mi | 2/1.0 (+1) | 667 (-14%) | 12mo | $110,000 | $165 | 46 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 11.7%
- Equity multiple
- 1.46×
- Total profit
- $9,042
- Equity at exit
- $10,422
- IRR
- 20.6%
- Equity multiple
- 2.74×
- Total profit
- $34,019
- Equity at exit
- $6,044
Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
- State Virginia
- 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 24541
- Home prices YoY
- -17.1%
- Active inventory
- 249
- Price-to-rent
- 6.3×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $927 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$367
- Tax from tax record
- −$16 /mo · $194/yr
- Insurance
- −$29
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$195
- Net cashflow
- $320
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $360 | -5% $340 | +0% $320 | +5% $300 | +10% $281 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $247 | -5% $284 | +0% $320 | +5% $357 | +10% $393 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $355 | -0.5pp $338 | base $320 | +0.5pp $302 | +1.0pp $284 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $17,475
- Closing costs
- $2,097
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 12 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 378 Juless St Danville, VA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 780 | $775 | $0.99 | 45d | 1 | 0.12mi |
| 380 Juless St Danville, VA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 780 | $775 | $0.99 | 45d | 1 | 0.12mi |
| 317 Dudley St Danville, VA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 840 | $914 | $1.09 | 23d | 1 | 0.23mi |
| 732 Hughes St Danville, VA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 900 | $1,800 | $2.00 | 45d | 1 | 0.32mi |
| 219 Montague St Danville, VA | 1.0 | 1.0 | 747 | $850 | $1.14 | 45d | 1 | 0.44mi |
| 345 Flint St Danville, VA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 888 | $1,200 | $1.35 | 45d | 1 | 0.58mi |
| 245 College Park Dr Danville, VA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 782 | $775 | $0.99 | 23d | 1 | 0.76mi |
| 107 Baltimore Ave Danville, VA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 902 | $914 | $1.01 | 23d | 1 | 0.77mi |
| 128 Charles St Unit 5 Danville, VA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 800 | $750 | $0.94 | 23d | 1 | 0.77mi |
| 111 Willoughby Pl Danville, VA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 700 | $775 | $1.11 | 23d | 1 | 0.94mi |
| 66 Carlson Ave Danville, VA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 966 | $1,000 | $1.04 | 45d | 1 | 1.37mi |
| 712 Edwin Ct Danville, VA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 969 | $700 | $0.72 | 45d | 1 | 1.38mi |
Listing history 23 events
-
2026-06-22days on market $69,900 Active 91 DOM
-
2026-06-21days on market $69,900 Active 90 DOM
-
2026-06-19days on market $69,900 Active 88 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $69,900 Active 87 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $69,900 Active 86 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $69,900 Active 85 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $69,900 Active 84 DOM
-
2026-06-14days on market $69,900 Active 82 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $69,900 Active 81 DOM
-
2026-06-10days on market $69,900 Active 79 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $69,900 Active 78 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $69,900 Active 77 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $69,900 Active 76 DOM
-
2026-06-05days on market $69,900 Active 73 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $69,900 Active 71 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $69,900 Active 70 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $69,900 Active 69 DOM
-
2026-05-30days on market $69,900 Active 68 DOM
-
2026-04-20price $69,900 169-char remark
Show marketing remark (169 chars)
Great investment property. Current long term tenant paying $600 a month. This property has had some renovations done. Being Sold as-is. Less than a mile from the casino.
-
2026-03-23$79,900 Active 169-char remark
Show marketing remark (169 chars)
Great investment property. Current long term tenant paying $600 a month. This property has had some renovations done. Being Sold as-is. Less than a mile from the casino.
-
2017-07-06soldstatus $18,000 103-char remark
Show marketing remark (103 chars)
Rental $425.00 Month. New HVAC, Bath & Fixtures, New Kitchen Cabinets. Sold as is-no inspections.
-
2016-03-09$21,900 103-char remark
Show marketing remark (103 chars)
Rental $425.00 Month. New HVAC, Bath & Fixtures, New Kitchen Cabinets. Sold as is-no inspections.
-
2002-08-02soldstatus $237,300
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $194 · $16/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $573 · $48/mo
- Expected delta
- +$379/yr (+$32/mo · 195.1%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 2/10 Low
- Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $11,121
- − Mortgage interest
- −$3,915
- − Property taxes
- −$194
- − Insurance
- −$350
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$890
- − Management
- −$890
- − Depreciation
- −$2,033
- Taxable income
- $2,849
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$684
- After-tax cash flow
- $3,159/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Danville City Public School District
- NCES district ID
- 5101110
- Math proficiency
- 30% ▼ -22.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 44% ▼ -8.00%
- Median HH income
- $31,952
- Composite
- 30.23/100
- National rank
- #6298
- State rank
- #128 of 131 in VA
Livability — Danville
- Score
- 77/100
- State rank
- #91
- US rank
- #2952
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Danville, VA
- County
- Danville City · 59,055 people
- City population
- 59,055
- Metro
- Danville, VA
- Population (ZIP)
- 28,042
- Household income
- $51,427
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 1399.0
Population outlook (Danville County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 40,989 people
- By 2030
- 40,432 · -1.4%
- By 2040
- 39,255 · -4.2%
- By 2050
- 38,035 · -7.2%
- By 2075
- 35,612 · -13.1%
- By 2100
- 30,365 · -25.9%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 50% Black 39% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
- Common ancestry
- Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
- Foreign-born
- 4% · Canada, Dominican Republic
- Languages at home
- 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Danville
- 2024 margin
- Strong D (+21.1) · D 60.1% · R 39.0%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +1.9pp toward D · 2008: 19.1pp · 2024: 21.1pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+21.1 2020: D+22.1 2016: D+19.9 2012: D+22.1 2008: D+19.1
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -49.28%
- Current HPI
- 238.5992
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- Danville, VA
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 2.40%
- F500 in state
- 50
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Aerospace / Defense | 4 | $236B |
|
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| Technology / Defense | 3 | $32B |
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| Financial Services | 2 | $176B |
|
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| Utilities | 2 | $27B |
|
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| Insurance | 2 | $25B |
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| Technology | 2 | $15B |
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Price history
-70.5% since first listed5 events — show timeline
- 2026-04-20 Price Changed $69,900 DRRAR
- 2026-03-23 Listed $79,900 DRRAR
- 2017-07-06 Sold (MLS) $18,000 DRRAR
- 2016-03-09 Listed $21,900 DRRAR
- 2002-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $237,300 Public Records
Property tax history
+2.6%/yrLatest (2025): $194 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…