9803 Bucroft · Houston, TX 77029

$384,900

6 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,269 sqft · MultiFamily · 78 Days on market

Built 2026 5,000 sqft lot ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

This uniquely designed duplex stands out with gold and black fixtures, a striking living room accent wall, and a waterfall kitchen island that adds an upscale touch. Each unit features 3 bedrooms and 2 baths with open-concept living, abundant natural light, and finishes that attract today’s renters and buyers. Designed with both lifestyle and investment in mind, this property delivers strong rental appeal and long-term value. Ideally located with Downtown and parks like Discovery Green just 12 minutes away, and NRG Stadium only 20 minutes from the property, residents enjoy quick access to Houston’s top employment centers, dining, entertainment, and recreation. With close proximi

Key facts

• Open-concept living
• 5,000 sq ft lot
• Built 2026

Tags

• UNIQUELY DESIGNED DUPLEX
• WATERFALL KITCHEN ISLAND
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT

🏗️ New construction. The $384,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $426,572.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $385k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-265 ($-3k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-133/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $340k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $340k (11.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Galena Park ISD (suburban): math 32% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #578 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Woodland Acres El (math 30% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 443 students, 85% FRL); Woodland Acres Middle (math 35% / reading 34%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 603 students, 85% FRL); Galena Park H S (math 37% / reading 36%, grade F, #924 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 1,914 students, 87% FRL).
• Market conditions: 153 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,396/mo this rent would consume 84% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) (locally 457% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $46k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $43k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$73k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($362k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $339,600 (11.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
4. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.66%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $426,572
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9715 Stedman	0.39mi	6/2.0	2,000 (-12%)	20mo	$375,000	$188	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $215,489
• Equity at exit: $384,290

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.42×
• Total profit: $647,960
• Equity at exit: $828,736

Cash invested: $119,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77029

• Home prices YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 153
• Price-to-rent: 18.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,396 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,237
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$533 /mo · $6,399/yr
• Insurance: −$178
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$713
• Net cashflow: $-265

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,732

Max offer price $388,211

Occupancy floor —

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	2	$3,396
Total (2 units)			$3,396

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,643
• Closing costs: $12,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
220 Armstrong St Houston, TX	5.0	2.0	1900	$2,000	$1.05	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-02
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-19
   price $384,900
4. 2026-01-20
   price $395,000
5. 2026-01-19
   listed $390,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,752
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,895
• − Property taxes: −$6,399
• − Insurance: −$2,133
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,260
• − Management: −$3,260
• − Depreciation: −$12,409
• Taxable loss: −$10,604
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,545
• After-tax cash flow: $-636/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Galena Park ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820250
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $43,158
• Composite: 27.62/100
• National rank: #6927
• State rank: #578 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,154
• Household income: $48,279
• Rent vs Own: 34.4% rent · 65.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 457.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 72% Two or more races 32% Black 22% White 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 66%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 61%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.53%
• Current HPI: 276.1811
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $384,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $395,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-19 Listed $390,000 HARMLS