Starling Plan · Antioch, IL 60002

$427,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,193 sqft · SingleFamily · 239 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This two-story home provides modern comfort and ample room to grow. Upon entry is a flex space well-suited for hosting guests, followed by a spacious open layout for seamless living and relaxing. Separate from the downstairs main living area, the second level hosts all four bedrooms to provide great personal space and privacy. The sprawling owner's suite is a serene haven with a full-sized bathroom and walk-in closet. A two-car garage and an unfinished basement to provide extra room completes the home.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 238 days

🏗️ New construction. The $427,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $467,500.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $428k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $23 ($281/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $412k (3.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $377k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.9% in Antioch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#305 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chsd 117 (suburban): math 36% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #135 of 620 in IL (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hillcrest Elementary School (math 21% / reading 24%, grade F, #934 of 2,056 statewide, top 46%, 638 students, 0% FRL); Antioch Upper Grade School (math 27% / reading 33%, grade F, #246 of 665 statewide, top 38%, 902 students, 0% FRL); Antioch Comm High School (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #147 of 693 statewide, top 22%, 1,309 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 213 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 113d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 948 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (424 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,119/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($109k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 239 days — a 12% lower offer ($377k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $376,631 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 239 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.21%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $467,500
• List price: $427,990
• Delta: -8.45%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1772 South Port Dr	0.04mi	4/2.5	2,074 (-5%)	2mo	$499,410	$241	87
1767 South Port Dr	0.09mi	4/2.5	2,386 (+9%)	0mo	$463,000	$194	81
1764 South Port Dr	0.07mi	4/2.5	2,386 (+9%)	1mo	$468,000	$196	81
1257 Prairie Ridge Trl	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,965 (-10%)	0mo	$439,990	$224	68
996 Timber Lake Dr	0.61mi	4/3.5	2,189 (-0%)	1mo	$474,000	$217	66
1245 Prairie Ridge Trl	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,955 (-11%)	4mo	$472,990	$242	65
1281 Prairie Ridge Trl	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,955 (-11%)	0mo	$508,360	$260	64
1288 Prairie Ridge Trl	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,965 (-10%)	5mo	$469,695	$239	63
1834 Tall Oaks Dr	0.29mi	4/2.5	2,424 (+10%)	7mo	$469,900	$194	63
1873 White Lake Dr	0.20mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,947 (-11%)	6mo	$530,000	$272	60
900 Heartland Park Ln	0.72mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,231 (+2%)	12mo	$365,000	$164	48
909 Forestview Way	0.73mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,160 (-2%)	12mo	$395,000	$183	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-74,203
• Equity at exit: $69,706

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-62,444
• Equity at exit: $40,421

Cash invested: $130,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 22 active · 24 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.4 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $463,142 ($228/sqft)
• Median days on market: 34 d
• This list price: 18% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -6.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 60002

• Home prices YoY: -34.4%
• Active inventory: 213
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,119 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,452
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$584 /mo · $7,012/yr
• Insurance: −$195
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$865
• Net cashflow: $23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,090

Max offer price $467,500

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $346	-5% $185	+0% $23	+5% $-138	+10% $-300
Rent	-10% $-302	-5% $-139	+0% $23	+5% $186	+10% $349
Rate	-1.0pp $259	-0.5pp $142	base $23	+0.5pp $-98	+1.0pp $-221

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $116,875
• Closing costs: $14,025
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1241 Neuway Ln Antioch, IL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1605	$3,170	$1.97	104d	12	0.09mi
1241 Neuway Ln Antioch, IL	4.0	2.5	2423	$4,210	$1.74	148d	1	0.09mi
1241 Neuway Ln Antioch, IL	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	2179	$4,870	$2.23	112d	13	0.09mi
1241 Neuway Ln Antioch, IL	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	2179	$4,870	$2.23	36d	12	0.09mi
1241 Neuway Ln Unit B Antioch, IL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1605	$2,948	$1.84	36d	10	0.09mi
945 Forestview Way Antioch, IL	4.0	2.5	2926	$3,900	$1.33	124d	1	0.75mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $427,990 Active 239 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $427,990 Active 238 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $427,990 Active 237 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $427,990 Active 236 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $427,990 Active 235 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $427,990 Active 233 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $427,990 Active 232 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $427,990 Active 231 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $427,990 Active 230 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $427,990 Active 229 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $427,990 Active 228 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $427,990 Active 227 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $427,990 Active 226 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $427,990 Active 225 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $427,990 Active 224 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $427,990 Active 223 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $427,990 Active 222 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $427,990 Active 221 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $427,990 Active 220 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $427,990 Active 219 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $427,990 Active 218 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $427,990 Active 217 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $427,990 Active 216 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    price $427,990 Active 215 DOM
25. 2026-10-15
    days on market $425,990 Active 215 DOM
26. 2026-10-14
    days on market $425,990 Active 214 DOM
27. 2026-10-13
    days on market $425,990 Active 213 DOM
28. 2026-10-12
    days on market $425,990 Active 212 DOM
29. 2026-10-11
    days on market $425,990 Active 211 DOM
30. 2026-10-10
    pricedays on market $425,990 Active 210 DOM
31. 2026-10-09
    days on market $475,990 Active 209 DOM
32. 2026-10-08
    days on market $475,990 Active 208 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $475,990 Active 207 DOM
34. 2026-10-06
    days on market $475,990 Active 206 DOM
35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $475,990 Active 205 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $475,990 Active 204 DOM
37. 2026-10-03
    days on market $475,990 Active 203 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $475,990 Active 202 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $475,990 Active 201 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $475,990 Active 200 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $475,990 Active 199 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $475,990 Active 198 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $475,990 Active 197 DOM
44. 2026-09-26
    days on market $475,990 Active 196 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $475,990 Active 195 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $475,990 Active 194 DOM
47. 2026-09-23
    days on market $475,990 Active 193 DOM
48. 2026-09-22
    days on market $475,990 Active 192 DOM
49. 2026-09-21
    days on market $475,990 Active 191 DOM
50. 2026-09-20
    days on market $475,990 Active 190 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,431
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,187
• − Property taxes: −$7,012
• − Insurance: −$2,338
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,954
• − Management: −$3,954
• − Depreciation: −$13,600
• Taxable loss: −$7,616
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,828
• After-tax cash flow: $2,108/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,965–$32,895 screening

This two-story home is in good condition with modern amenities and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good balance of updates and maintenance, making it a solid investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can improve functionality and appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and attract tech-savvy buyers. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, making the home more attractive to buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and attract more potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 30/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Oakland Elementary School F IL #829/2,056 Nat'l #29,743/41,679 Middle Antioch Upper Grade School F IL #246/665 Nat'l #8,861/14,009 High Antioch Comm High School F IL #147/693 Nat'l #10,121/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chsd 117
• NCES district ID: 1703870
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $80,993
• Composite: 35.79/100
• National rank: #4836
• State rank: #135 of 620 in IL

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Antioch

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #305
• US rank: #5985

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Antioch, IL
• County: Lake · 700,217 people
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN
• Population (ZIP): 24,396
• Household income: $109,047
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 700,217 people
• By 2030: 693,290 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 673,588 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 643,556 · -8.1%
• By 2075: 562,792 · -19.6%
• By 2100: 457,715 · -34.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 1%
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.8) · D 59.7% · R 38.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.1pp toward D · 2008: 19.6pp · 2024: 20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.8 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+20.3 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+19.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.22%
• Current HPI: 221.5754
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+0.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $503,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-14 Listed $501,990 Zillow