368 Pine Ridge Dr · Dayton Lakes, TX 77327

$77,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 952 sqft · SingleFamily · 297 Days on market

Built 1977 Good condition 0.69 ac lot $82/sqft · 42% below area Est $134k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

COUNTRY LIVING! Take a look at this fenced-in 2 bedrooms, 1 bath mobile home available in The Preserve community! This is the perfect place to get away from the city life. The property itself features a spacious floorplan with a lovely family room, a gorgeous kitchen with wooden cabinets and laminate countertops, and ample yard space outside. There is also a detached garage and carport. It is truly an ideal home for anyone seeking living. The Preserve offers an OUTDOOR ATMOSPHERE WITH TONS OF AMENITIES like the 4 pools, outdoor pavilion, splash pad, equestrian center, parks, natural lakes, fishing, and more! It features new interior/exterior paint, new vinyl flooring and new lighting throughout. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home. Want more space? You can also add the lot next door for $40,000!

Key facts

• Spacious floorplan
• Gorgeous kitchen
• Wooden cabinets

Tags

• SPACIOUS FLOORPLAN
• GORGEOUS KITCHEN
• WOODEN CABINETS
• LAMINATE COUNTERTOPS
• AMPLE YARD SPACE
• DETACHED GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $78k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $475 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $78k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 36/100 on livability (#1,658 in TX) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Tarkington ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #373 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $539 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 297 days — a 12% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $68,639 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 297 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.08%
• DSCR: 2.16
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $134,164
• List price: $77,999
• Delta: -41.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
184 Wood Fern Dr	0.15mi	2/2.0	896 (-6%)	21mo	$64,999	$73	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $18,920
• Equity at exit: $11,630

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.79×
• Total profit: $60,948
• Equity at exit: $6,744

Cash invested: $21,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,283 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$97 /mo · $1,170/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $475

Break-even live

Break-even rent $682

Max offer price $77,999

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,500
• Closing costs: $2,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $77,999 Active 297 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $77,999 Active 296 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $77,999 Active 295 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $77,999 Active 294 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $77,999 Active 292 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $77,999 Active 288 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $77,999 Active 287 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $77,999 Active 286 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $77,999 Active 283 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $77,999 Active 282 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $77,999 Active 281 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $77,999 Active 280 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $77,999 Active 279 DOM
14. 2025-08-25
    listed $77,999 Active 995-char remark

    Show marketing remark (995 chars)

    COUNTRY LIVING! Take a look at this fenced-in 2 bedrooms, 1 bath mobile home available in The Preserve community! This is the perfect place to get away from the city life. The property itself features a spacious floorplan with a lovely family room, a gorgeous kitchen with wooden cabinets and laminate countertops, and ample yard space outside. There is also a detached garage and carport. It is truly an ideal home for anyone seeking living. The Preserve offers an OUTDOOR ATMOSPHERE WITH TONS OF AMENITIES like the 4 pools, outdoor pavilion, splash pad, equestrian center, parks, natural lakes, fishing, and more! It features new interior/exterior paint, new vinyl flooring and new lighting throughout. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home. Want more space? You can also add the lot next door for $40,000!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,399
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,369
• − Property taxes: −$1,170
• − Insurance: −$390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,232
• − Management: −$1,232
• − Depreciation: −$2,269
• Taxable income: $4,737
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,137
• After-tax cash flow: $4,560/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This mobile home is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It has a good roof, exterior, and interior, and a good kitchen and bathroom. The deck has some minor wear, and the home needs painting and landscaping to increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Deck — The deck has some visible wear and tear, but it is not severe enough to require extensive repairs.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior and interior — Painting the exterior and interior can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more attractive to potential buyers.
• Rental Landscaping — A well-maintained lawn and landscaping can make the home more appealing to renters and increase its rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Deck · The deck has some visible wear and tear, but it is not severe enough to require extensive repairs.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 1 items		$500–3,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint the exterior and interior — Painting the exterior and interior can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
• Rental Landscaping — A well-maintained lawn and landscaping can make the home more appealing to renters and increase its rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tarkington ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842210
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,895
• Composite: 35.02/100
• National rank: #5044
• State rank: #373 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dayton Lakes

• Score: 36/100
• State rank: #1658
• US rank: #27676

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-08-25 Listed $77,999 HARMLS