14601 Wahlbergs Way · Elgin, TX 78621

$274,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,305 sqft · Land · 10 Days on market

Built 2026 5,174 sqft lot $35/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Chestnut plan by LGI Homes is a spacious one-story, three-bedroom plan at available with Homestead Estates. This plan features a chef-ready kitchen, large family room and a luxurious master retreat, all filled with designer upgrades at no extra costs to you! Homeowners will enjoy having each bedroom off a hallway with the Chestnut plan, which provides additional privacy and a peaceful atmosphere.

Key facts

• Large family room
• Chef-ready kitchen
• Designer upgrades

Tags

• CHEF-READY KITCHEN
• LARGE FAMILY ROOM
• LUXURIOUS MASTER RETREAT
• DESIGNER UPGRADES
• ADDITIONAL PRIVACY
• PEACEFUL ATMOSPHERE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $420 (includes common area maintenance); Community amenities: playground, park, dog park, barbecue area, trails/paths, sidewalks, street lights, community mailbox, common grounds

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; Two covered garage spaces (2-car); Additional driveway parking (total 4 parking spaces); Concrete driveway; Garage faces front; Lighted parking area
• Security: Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Cable available; Fiber optic available; Phone service available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single-story home; New construction by LGI Homes - Texas, LLC; Northwest-facing; Main/entry level layout
• Construction: Shingle (composition) roof; HardiPlank siding and masonry accents; Blown-in insulation and radiant barrier; Attic/crawl hatchway(s) insulated; Concrete foundation (slab)
• Exterior features: Private, fenced backyard with gate (wood); Front yard; Landscaped lot with small trees; In-ground automatic sprinklers; Covered front porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite counters; Dishwasher; Free-standing electric range; Self-cleaning oven; Microwave; Garbage disposal; Stainless steel appliances; Exhaust fan; Plumbed for ice maker; Free-standing refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Open floorplan with high ceilings; Ceiling fans; Recessed lighting; High-speed internet; Smart thermostat; Pantry; Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen; Main level primary; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry room; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-181 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (11.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (27.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (27.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.4% in Elgin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Neidig El (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 599 students, 79% FRL); Elgin Middle (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 780 students, 82% FRL); Elgin H S (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 1,672 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 814 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $198,622 (27.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.82%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $138,382
• Equity at exit: $247,652

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.42×
• Total profit: $416,932
• Equity at exit: $534,070

Cash invested: $76,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 814
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,986 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$159 /mo · $1,905/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $-181

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,215

Max offer price $242,964

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-25	-5% $-103	+0% $-181	+5% $-259	+10% $-336
Rent	-10% $-338	-5% $-259	+0% $-181	+5% $-102	+10% $-24
Rate	-1.0pp $-42	-0.5pp $-111	base $-181	+0.5pp $-252	+1.0pp $-324

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,725
• Closing costs: $8,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14508 Wahlbergs Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	13d	1	0.03mi
18300 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,995	$1.11	25d	1	0.11mi
18224 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1599	$1,700	$1.06	45d	1	0.12mi
18200 Papuan Cv Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,900	$1.36	5d	1	0.12mi
18316 Stellers Sea St Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,045	$1.90	21d	1	0.14mi
14141 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,650	$1.09	45d	1	0.16mi
14300 Boomtown Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$2,050	$1.14	25d	1	0.23mi
18500 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,875	$1.23	0d	1	0.26mi
18612 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,935	$1.08	0d	1	0.32mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,950	$1.09	25d	1	0.33mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Unit 18505 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,785	$0.99	6d	1	0.33mi
18525 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,725	$0.96	19d	1	0.33mi
14421 Prairie Sod Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,650	$1.08	4d	1	0.36mi
18721 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,085	$1.18	0d	1	0.46mi
234 Heritage Mill Trl Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1530	$1,800	$1.18	0d	1	0.49mi
107 Tillage Rd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,765	$1.14	0d	1	0.51mi
116 Honeybee Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,000	$1.12	6d	1	0.64mi
242 Barley Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,150	$1.21	0d	1	0.67mi
19405 Bear Grass Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,760	$1.18	45d	1	0.81mi
13817 County Line Rd Elgin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	937	$1,890	$2.02	0d	6	0.93mi
101 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,769	$1.18	16d	1	0.99mi
401 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1665	$1,875	$1.13	45d	1	1.11mi
419 Gettysburg Loop Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,850	$1.18	14d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $274,900 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $274,900 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $274,900 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $274,900 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $274,900 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 403-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $274,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,905 · $159/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,031 · $419/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,126/yr (+$260/mo · 164.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,835
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,399
• − Property taxes: −$1,905
• − Insurance: −$1,374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,907
• − Management: −$1,907
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$7,997
• Taxable loss: −$7,074
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,698
• After-tax cash flow: $-472/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elgin, TX
• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $274,900 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,905 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.