3071 Aqueduct Ave · Royse City, TX 75189

$300,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,658 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 149 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 6,839 sqft lot $181/sqft · 11% below area Est $338k · 11% under $55/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This pristine single-story HistoryMaker Homes is better than new, and nestled in the highly desirable master-planned community of Waterscape, where resort-style amenities create a true vacation-at-home lifestyle. Inviting curb appeal and a charming covered front porch set the tone—perfect for morning coffee or evening relaxation. Inside, the open and airy floor plan is filled with natural light, finished in timeless gray and white tones, and durable luxury vinyl plank flooring that flows throughout the main areas---perfect for everyday living and entertaining. This chef's kitchen is anchored by a large center island, and features white quartz countertops, 42-inch gray cabinetry, a designer backsplash, stainless steel appliances, and gas burner stove. The thoughtfully designed layout offers 3 split bedrooms, allowing for privacy. The primary suite includes a large walk-in closet and a stylish en-suite bath with a walk-in shower, dual sink, and sleek finishes. A generously sized laundry room adds everyday convenience. Enjoy outdoor living in the backyard with a covered patio, perfect for gatherings, plus a storage building for added functionality. The two-car garage includes epoxy flooring and additional storage space. Waterscape residents enjoy pools, a splash pad, clubhouse, volleyball courts, playgrounds, scenic trails, catch-and-release fishing, and a dog park. Located in Royse City ISD with Paula Walker Elementary within walking distance, this home also offers easy access to major routes, shopping, dining, and Lake Ray Hubbard for weekend recreation.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Designer backsplash
• Chef's kitchen

Tags

• MASTER PLANNED COMMUNITY
• RESORT STYLE AMENITIES
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• WHITE QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• DESIGNER BACKSPLASH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-320 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (18.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $253k (15.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $244k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 4.2% in Royse City — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#158 in TX, #4,292 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Royse City ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #266 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Anita Scott El (math 53% / reading 40%, grade D-, #1,080 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 712 students, 47% FRL); Ouida Baley Middle (math 32% / reading 35%, grade F, #911 of 1,662 statewide, top 56%, 934 students, 43% FRL); Royse City H S (math 38% / reading 55%, grade D-, #621 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 2,526 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 1569 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,810 units permitted in Rockwall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rockwall County population projected at +56% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $243,513 (18.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.57%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $337,699
• List price: $300,000
• Delta: -11.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5054 Huffines Blvd	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,608 (-3%)	0mo	$289,000	$180	85
2001 Bayfront Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,605 (-3%)	3mo	$309,990	$193	80
2017 Bayfront Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,605 (-3%)	4mo	$299,990	$187	79
3043 Duck Heights Ave	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,840 (+11%)	3mo	$399,500	$217	70
2085 Bayfront Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,458 (-12%)	1mo	$288,990	$198	67
2029 Bayfront Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,480 (-11%)	8mo	$283,680	$192	64
3131 Duck Heights Ave	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,845 (+11%)	3mo	$339,990	$184	60
3147 Duck Heights Ave	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,845 (+11%)	7mo	$338,990	$184	60
3166 Duck Heights Ave	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,845 (+11%)	3mo	$339,990	$184	58
5512 Huffines Blvd	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,889 (+14%)	3mo	$305,000	$161	58
2178 Slow Stream Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,882 (+14%)	8mo	$317,000	$168	57
3034 Estuary Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,845 (+11%)	3mo	$299,999	$163	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-76,215
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -46.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.43×
• Total profit: $-120,517
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 26 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 13.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $325,990 ($186/sqft)
• Median days on market: 142 d
• This list price: 27% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +9.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75189

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 1569
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,534 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$569 /mo · $6,824/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$55
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$532
• Net cashflow: $-320

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,939

Max offer price $243,513

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-150	-5% $-235	+0% $-320	+5% $-405	+10% $-490
Rent	-10% $-520	-5% $-420	+0% $-320	+5% $-220	+10% $-120
Rate	-1.0pp $-169	-0.5pp $-243	base $-320	+0.5pp $-397	+1.0pp $-477

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2251 Brookside Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	2.5	2059	$2,500	$1.21	17d	1	0.32mi
8134 Grotto Dr Royse City, TX	4.0	3.0	2145	$2,700	$1.26	0d	1	0.42mi
3762 S FM 548 Royse City, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,850	$1.18	3d	1	0.89mi
107 Dustin Dr Fate, TX	3.0	2.0	1659	$2,600	$1.57	71d	1	1.45mi
1323 Great Sand Dune St Royse City, TX	4.0	3.0	2249	$2,475	$1.10	7d	1	1.47mi
1323 Great Sand Dune St Royse City, TX	4.0	3.0	2238	$2,475	$1.11	10d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail $55/mo · $660/yr

• Likely covers: watergaslandscapingpool

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $300,000 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-02-09
   historical $2,300
3. 2026-01-02
   listed $300,000 Active 1585-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1585 chars)

   This pristine single-story HistoryMaker Homes is better than new, and nestled in the highly desirable master-planned community of Waterscape, where resort-style amenities create a true vacation-at-home lifestyle. Inviting curb appeal and a charming covered front porch set the tone—perfect for morning coffee or evening relaxation. Inside, the open and airy floor plan is filled with natural light, finished in timeless gray and white tones, and durable luxury vinyl plank flooring that flows throughout the main areas---perfect for everyday living and entertaining. This chef's kitchen is anchored by a large center island, and features white quartz countertops, 42-inch gray cabinetry, a designer backsplash, stainless steel appliances, and gas burner stove. The thoughtfully designed layout offers 3 split bedrooms, allowing for privacy. The primary suite includes a large walk-in closet and a stylish en-suite bath with a walk-in shower, dual sink, and sleek finishes. A generously sized laundry room adds everyday convenience. Enjoy outdoor living in the backyard with a covered patio, perfect for gatherings, plus a storage building for added functionality. The two-car garage includes epoxy flooring and additional storage space. Waterscape residents enjoy pools, a splash pad, clubhouse, volleyball courts, playgrounds, scenic trails, catch-and-release fishing, and a dog park. Located in Royse City ISD with Paula Walker Elementary within walking distance, this home also offers easy access to major routes, shopping, dining, and Lake Ray Hubbard for weekend recreation.

4. 2025-08-09
   listed $2,300
5. 2025-07-24
   price $331,000
6. 2025-04-03
   listed $339,000 Active
7. 2022-03-02
   status Pending
8. 2022-02-25
   soldstatus Closed
9. 2021-08-16
   status Pending
10. 2021-08-11
    price $309,441
11. 2021-07-28
    price $307,441
12. 2021-07-23
    listed $303,441 Active
13. 2021-07-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,824 · $569/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,824 · $569/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,412
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$6,824
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,433
• − Management: −$2,433
• − HOA: −$660
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$8,970
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,153
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,684/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,290–$24,870 screening

This single-story home in Waterscape is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It features a modern kitchen, good exterior, and flooring. The home is move-in ready with minor maintenance needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both trim around windows — improves curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 46/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Anita Scott El D- TX #1,080/4,322 Nat'l #15,452/41,679 High Royse City H S D- TX #621/1,632 Nat'l #6,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royse City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838220
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $73,810
• Composite: 38.44/100
• National rank: #4197
• State rank: #266 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Royse City

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #158
• US rank: #4292

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Rockwall County · 118,396 people
• City population: 48,739
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 48,739
• Household income: $117,125
• Rent vs Own: 11.5% rent · 88.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 22% of renters

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Population outlook (Rockwall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 118,396 people
• By 2030: 132,209 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 159,538 · +34.7%
• By 2050: 185,299 · +56.5%
• By 2075: 243,489 · +105.7%
• By 2100: 277,814 · +134.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Philippines, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Rockwall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.9) · D 29.1% · R 70.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.3pp toward D · 2008: -46.2pp · 2024: -40.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.9 2020: R+37.7 2016: R+47.5 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+46.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.10%
• Current HPI: 212.8422
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.13%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-09 Rental Removed $2,300 NTREIS
• 2026-01-02 Listed $300,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-09 Listed for Rent $2,300 NTREIS
• 2025-07-24 Price Changed $331,000 NTREIS
• 2025-04-03 Listed $339,000 NTREIS
• 2022-03-02 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-02-25 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2021-08-16 Pending — NTREIS
• 2021-08-11 Price Changed $309,441 NTREIS
• 2021-07-28 Price Changed $307,441 NTREIS
• 2021-07-23 Listed $303,441 NTREIS
• 2021-07-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+46.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,824 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.