15906 Lost Anchor Way Ln · Houston, TX 77044

$230,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,192 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 107 Days on market

Built 2007 3,868 sqft lot $105/sqft · 16% below area Est $275k · 16% under $81/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come tour this charming two-story home located in the established community of Lakeshore! Conveniently situated near parks, shopping, restaurants, and outdoor recreation, this home offers both comfort and accessibility. This inviting three-bedroom home is filled with natural light and character. Recent updates include laminate wood flooring, modern light fixtures, and a new stove. The open-concept kitchen flows seamlessly into the family room, creating an ideal space for everyday living and entertaining. You’ll also appreciate the abundant storage throughout the home. All bedrooms are located upstairs, providing privacy from the main living areas. Tucked away on a quiet street toward the back of the neighborhood, this property offers a peaceful setting while remaining close to everything Lakeshore has to offer.

Key facts

• 3,868 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2007

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $243 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $230k).
• Recommended offer: $209k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 337 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,300 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.53%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $275,381
• List price: $230,000
• Delta: -16.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15826 Lost Anchor Way Ln	0.05mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,192 (0%)	4mo	$235,000	$107	89
15842 Lost Anchor Way Ln	0.02mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,280 (+4%)	5mo	$250,000	$110	84
16631 Polletts Cove Ct	0.31mi	3/2.5	2,396 (+9%)	2mo	$372,500	$155	68
13014 Barkley Bend Ln	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,329 (+6%)	1mo	$330,000	$142	67
12926 Barkley Bend Ln	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,364 (+8%)	1mo	$339,900	$144	66
13110 Sierra National Dr	0.21mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,396 (+9%)	5mo	$409,999	$171	63
13018 Sierra National Dr	0.26mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,474 (+13%)	4mo	$405,000	$164	56
13002 Fernbank Forest Dr	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,372 (+8%)	4mo	$424,000	$179	53
17010 Upper Ridge Ln	0.69mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,164 (-1%)	7mo	$325,000	$150	52
16914 Upper Ridge Ln	0.72mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,164 (-1%)	6mo	$360,000	$166	52
13026 Clover Creek Point Ln	0.60mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,430 (+11%)	5mo	$319,999	$132	44
12510 Pierson Hollow Dr	0.73mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,453 (+12%)	3mo	$400,000	$163	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.59% appreciation · 0.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-13,316
• Equity at exit: $49,121

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-477
• Equity at exit: $46,307

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77044

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,810 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$593 /mo · $7,122/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$81
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$590
• Net cashflow: $243

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,502

Max offer price $230,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16807 Hemlock Grove Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2476	$3,100	$1.25	43d	1	0.56mi
16755 W Lake Houston Pkwy Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,775	$1.24	10d	1	0.68mi
16755 W Lake Houston Pkwy Unit 3148 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,743	$1.22	3d	1	0.68mi
16755 W Lake Houston Pkwy Unit 16788 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,934	$1.35	43d	1	0.68mi
12731 Arcola Valley Ct Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2663	$2,716	$1.02	5d	1	0.75mi
15614 Countesswells Dr Unit NA Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2620	$3,350	$1.28	43d	1	0.80mi
15614 Countesswells Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2620	$3,150	$1.20	3d	1	0.80mi
15410 Rosehill Summit Ln Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2631	$5,000	$1.90	1d	1	0.83mi
16411 Little Pine Creek Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2646	$2,976	$1.12	5d	1	0.99mi
16614 Spirit Lake Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2374	$2,395	$1.01	24d	1	0.99mi
16848 W Lake Houston Pkwy Humble, TX	3.0	1.0–2.5	1128	$2,563	$2.27	1d	28	1.12mi
12643 Jamestown Crossing Ln Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	2450	$4,995	$2.04	24d	1	1.13mi
17401 W Lake Houston Pkwy Humble, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1085	$2,163	$1.99	1d	42	1.34mi
12323 Crescent Mountain Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	2358	$2,326	$0.99	5d	1	1.36mi
13513 Northline Lake Dr Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	2034	$2,800	$1.38	43d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $81 · $972/yr

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $230,000 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $230,000 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $230,000 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $230,000 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $230,000 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $230,000 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   price $230,000 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $218,500 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $218,500 Active 97 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $218,500 Active 96 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $218,500 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $218,500 Active 92 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    statusdays on market $218,500 Active 91 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $218,500 Pending 90 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $218,500 Pending 89 DOM
16. 2026-05-20
    status Active 834-char remark

    Show marketing remark (834 chars)

    Come tour this charming two-story home located in the established community of Lakeshore! Conveniently situated near parks, shopping, restaurants, and outdoor recreation, this home offers both comfort and accessibility. This inviting three-bedroom home is filled with natural light and character. Recent updates include laminate wood flooring, modern light fixtures, and a new stove. The open-concept kitchen flows seamlessly into the family room, creating an ideal space for everyday living and entertaining. You’ll also appreciate the abundant storage throughout the home. All bedrooms are located upstairs, providing privacy from the main living areas. Tucked away on a quiet street toward the back of the neighborhood, this property offers a peaceful setting while remaining close to everything Lakeshore has to offer.

17. 2026-05-20
    price $218,500 834-char remark

    Show marketing remark (834 chars)

    Come tour this charming two-story home located in the established community of Lakeshore! Conveniently situated near parks, shopping, restaurants, and outdoor recreation, this home offers both comfort and accessibility. This inviting three-bedroom home is filled with natural light and character. Recent updates include laminate wood flooring, modern light fixtures, and a new stove. The open-concept kitchen flows seamlessly into the family room, creating an ideal space for everyday living and entertaining. You’ll also appreciate the abundant storage throughout the home. All bedrooms are located upstairs, providing privacy from the main living areas. Tucked away on a quiet street toward the back of the neighborhood, this property offers a peaceful setting while remaining close to everything Lakeshore has to offer.

18. 2026-05-11
    historical Active Under Contract 834-char remark

    Show marketing remark (834 chars)

    Come tour this charming two-story home located in the established community of Lakeshore! Conveniently situated near parks, shopping, restaurants, and outdoor recreation, this home offers both comfort and accessibility. This inviting three-bedroom home is filled with natural light and character. Recent updates include laminate wood flooring, modern light fixtures, and a new stove. The open-concept kitchen flows seamlessly into the family room, creating an ideal space for everyday living and entertaining. You’ll also appreciate the abundant storage throughout the home. All bedrooms are located upstairs, providing privacy from the main living areas. Tucked away on a quiet street toward the back of the neighborhood, this property offers a peaceful setting while remaining close to everything Lakeshore has to offer.

19. 2026-05-08
    price $205,000 834-char remark

    Show marketing remark (834 chars)

    Come tour this charming two-story home located in the established community of Lakeshore! Conveniently situated near parks, shopping, restaurants, and outdoor recreation, this home offers both comfort and accessibility. This inviting three-bedroom home is filled with natural light and character. Recent updates include laminate wood flooring, modern light fixtures, and a new stove. The open-concept kitchen flows seamlessly into the family room, creating an ideal space for everyday living and entertaining. You’ll also appreciate the abundant storage throughout the home. All bedrooms are located upstairs, providing privacy from the main living areas. Tucked away on a quiet street toward the back of the neighborhood, this property offers a peaceful setting while remaining close to everything Lakeshore has to offer.

20. 2026-02-26
    listed $250,000 Active 834-char remark

    Show marketing remark (834 chars)

    Come tour this charming two-story home located in the established community of Lakeshore! Conveniently situated near parks, shopping, restaurants, and outdoor recreation, this home offers both comfort and accessibility. This inviting three-bedroom home is filled with natural light and character. Recent updates include laminate wood flooring, modern light fixtures, and a new stove. The open-concept kitchen flows seamlessly into the family room, creating an ideal space for everyday living and entertaining. You’ll also appreciate the abundant storage throughout the home. All bedrooms are located upstairs, providing privacy from the main living areas. Tucked away on a quiet street toward the back of the neighborhood, this property offers a peaceful setting while remaining close to everything Lakeshore has to offer.

21. 2023-03-13
    soldstatus
22. 2021-06-28
    soldstatus
23. 2021-06-25
    soldstatus Sold 521-char remark

    Show marketing remark (521 chars)

    Come tour this cute 2 story home in the established neighborhood of Lakeshore! Lots of amenities nearby including parks, shopping, restaurants and outdoor entertainment. This beautiful 3 bedroom home has tons of character and light. Updated laminate wood flooring, light fixtures, new stove, tons of storage and so much more. Kitchen open to family room on primary floor. All bedrooms are upstairs. Back patio cover and furniture will stay with new owners. Property sits on a quiet street in the back of the neighborhood.

24. 2021-05-13
    status Pending 521-char remark

    Show marketing remark (521 chars)

    Come tour this cute 2 story home in the established neighborhood of Lakeshore! Lots of amenities nearby including parks, shopping, restaurants and outdoor entertainment. This beautiful 3 bedroom home has tons of character and light. Updated laminate wood flooring, light fixtures, new stove, tons of storage and so much more. Kitchen open to family room on primary floor. All bedrooms are upstairs. Back patio cover and furniture will stay with new owners. Property sits on a quiet street in the back of the neighborhood.

25. 2021-05-06
    status Option Pending 521-char remark

    Show marketing remark (521 chars)

    Come tour this cute 2 story home in the established neighborhood of Lakeshore! Lots of amenities nearby including parks, shopping, restaurants and outdoor entertainment. This beautiful 3 bedroom home has tons of character and light. Updated laminate wood flooring, light fixtures, new stove, tons of storage and so much more. Kitchen open to family room on primary floor. All bedrooms are upstairs. Back patio cover and furniture will stay with new owners. Property sits on a quiet street in the back of the neighborhood.

26. 2021-04-30
    listed $234,900 Active 521-char remark

    Show marketing remark (521 chars)

    Come tour this cute 2 story home in the established neighborhood of Lakeshore! Lots of amenities nearby including parks, shopping, restaurants and outdoor entertainment. This beautiful 3 bedroom home has tons of character and light. Updated laminate wood flooring, light fixtures, new stove, tons of storage and so much more. Kitchen open to family room on primary floor. All bedrooms are upstairs. Back patio cover and furniture will stay with new owners. Property sits on a quiet street in the back of the neighborhood.

27. 2015-11-04
    soldstatus
28. 2015-11-03
    soldstatus Sold
29. 2015-10-05
    status Pending
30. 2015-09-29
    status Option Pending
31. 2015-08-27
    price $184,500
32. 2015-08-05
    historical
33. 2015-08-05
    listed $189,900 Active
34. 2015-06-15
    price $189,900
35. 2015-06-05
    listed $194,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,122 · $593/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,122 · $593/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,718
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$7,122
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,697
• − Management: −$2,697
• − HOA: −$972
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$495
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$119
• After-tax cash flow: $3,039/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 58,347
• Household income: $95,000
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1332.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% Black 32% White 19% Two or more races 18% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.59%
• Current HPI: 215.5736
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.92%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+12.3% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $218,500 HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2023-03-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-06-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-06-25 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-05-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-05-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-04-30 Listed $234,900 HARMLS
• 2015-11-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-11-03 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2015-10-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-09-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-08-27 Price Changed $184,500 HARMLS
• 2015-08-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2015-08-05 Listed $189,900 HARMLS
• 2015-06-15 Price Changed $189,900 HARMLS
• 2015-06-05 Listed $194,500 HARMLS

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,122 · +13.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.