2809 18th St SW · Lehigh Acres, FL 33976

$314,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,606 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 110 Days on market

Built 2024 0.25 ac lot Est $337k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks

Motivated Seller. . . LOCATION, LOCATION!! - THE LOWEST-PRICED HOME OF ITS KIND IN THE AREA. This brand-new construction delivers outstanding quality, style, and space at an unbeatable price. Featuring 3+ bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, plus a flexible DEN, open-concept design with plenty of natural light and modern finishes from top to bottom. Ideally located near schools, shopping, dining, and main roadways, in one of Lehigh Acres’ most rapidly expanding neighborhoods, perfect for convenience and long-term growth.

Key facts

• Tile flooring
• Granite countertops
• 0.25 acre lot

Tags

• MODERN OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• TILE FLOORING
• CONTEMPORARY CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• IMPACT-RESISTANT WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Non-gated community; No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 covered garage spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Cable available; Septic tank; Well water
• Home design: Single-story; New construction; Entry level 1; South-facing
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Shingle and tile roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Security/high-impact doors; Paved road access; Rectangular lot; North exposure

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Freezer; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Den (flex/bonus room)
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric cooling (air conditioning)
• Interior features: Impact glass windows; Dual sinks; Living/dining room; Split bedroom layout; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $314k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-403 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (22.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (32.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (32.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#826 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Veterans Park Academy For The Arts (math 41% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,366 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 2,133 students, 36% FRL); Oak Hammock Middle School (math 43% / reading 41%, grade D-, #340 of 571 statewide, top 61%, 1,563 students, 56% FRL); Lehigh Senior High School (math 23% / reading 45%, grade F, #394 of 667 statewide, top 60%, 2,476 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 788 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $314k implies a 1156% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,242 (32.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.50%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $337,260
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2906 18th St SW	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-4%)	4mo	$340,000	$221	81
3008 23rd St SW	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,637 (+2%)	4mo	$299,900	$183	72
2607 24th St SW	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,543 (-4%)	9mo	$278,000	$180	65
2915 19th St SW	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,499 (-7%)	12mo	$325,275	$217	62
2906 29th St SW	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,538 (-4%)	2mo	$335,000	$218	60
2823 22nd St SW	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,829 (+14%)	2mo	$322,000	$176	58
2922 22nd St SW	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,426 (-11%)	9mo	$329,900	$231	56
2916 21st St SW	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,426 (-11%)	7mo	$298,990	$210	56
2806 26th St SW	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,499 (-7%)	12mo	$318,275	$212	52
20589 Hazelnut Ct S	0.75mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,564 (-3%)	4mo	$212,000	$136	52
20611 Hazelnut Ct	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,564 (-3%)	7mo	$212,000	$136	51
2506 25th St SW	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,829 (+14%)	3mo	$318,500	$174	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $139,096
• Equity at exit: $282,876

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.76×
• Total profit: $418,557
• Equity at exit: $610,033

Cash invested: $87,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33976

• Home prices YoY: 6.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 788
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,132 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,647
• Tax from tax record: −$310 /mo · $3,718/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $-403

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,642

Max offer price $242,859

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-225	-5% $-314	+0% $-403	+5% $-492	+10% $-580
Rent	-10% $-571	-5% $-487	+0% $-403	+5% $-318	+10% $-234
Rate	-1.0pp $-245	-0.5pp $-323	base $-403	+0.5pp $-484	+1.0pp $-567

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,500
• Closing costs: $9,420
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2805 20th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1151	$1,699	$1.48	5d	1	0.15mi
2701 20th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	2019	$1,900	$0.94	21d	1	0.21mi
2909 15th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1291	$1,800	$1.39	23d	1	0.33mi
2906 14th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1563	$2,450	$1.57	25d	1	0.37mi
2602 24th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1358	$1,800	$1.33	5d	1	0.44mi
2811 25th St SW Unit NA Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,990	$1.39	25d	1	0.47mi
2914 24th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1537	$2,250	$1.46	25d	1	0.48mi
3008 23rd St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1640	$2,350	$1.43	25d	1	0.51mi
2708 27th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1698	$2,280	$1.34	5d	1	0.55mi
3008 25th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1565	$1,711	$1.09	23d	1	0.60mi
2710 28th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1742	$2,450	$1.41	25d	1	0.60mi
20699 Hazelnut Ct Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	1564	$2,351	$1.50	25d	1	0.63mi
20673 Hazelnut Ct Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	1564	$2,099	$1.34	25d	1	0.65mi
3202 21st St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,920	$1.75	5d	1	0.73mi
3103 11th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,800	$1.49	25d	1	0.73mi
1507 Paula Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1547	$2,000	$1.29	21d	1	0.74mi
2916 7th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,900	$1.40	25d	1	0.75mi
18451 Copperhead Dr #522 Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$1,895	$1.69	25d	1	0.76mi
3209 21st St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,699	$1.20	5d	1	0.78mi
20559 Hazelnut Ct S Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	1564	$1,750	$1.12	25d	1	0.79mi
2612 31st St Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1389	$1,799	$1.30	18d	1	0.81mi
2612 31st St Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1365	$1,799	$1.32	16d	1	0.81mi
18461 Copperhead Dr #436 Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$3,495	$3.03	25d	1	0.81mi
18461 Copperhead Dr #421 Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,895	$1.46	25d	1	0.81mi
18461 Copperhead Dr #431 Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1301	$3,995	$3.07	25d	1	0.81mi
20517 Hazelnut Ct S Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	1564	$2,050	$1.31	25d	1	0.85mi
3201 23rd St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1324	$1,845	$1.39	23d	1	0.85mi
20555 Copperhead Dr Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	3.0	2032	$2,490	$1.23	5d	1	0.87mi
2812 4th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1751	$1,856	$1.06	25d	1	0.88mi
20550 Copperhead Dr Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	3.0	2002	$3,500	$1.75	25d	1	0.89mi
3203 24th St SW Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,300	$1.54	23d	1	0.89mi
59 Camelot Gardens Blvd #110 Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	1166	$1,800	$1.54	25d	1	0.90mi
20483 Copperhead Dr Unit 20483 Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	3.0	1849	$2,300	$1.24	12d	1	0.96mi
3201 28th St Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1389	$2,000	$1.44	5d	1	1.01mi
18421 Copperhead Dr #222 Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$1,700	$1.47	25d	1	1.02mi
18411 Copperhead Dr #346 Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	1061	$1,695	$1.60	23d	1	1.04mi
18261 Minorea Ln Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	1402	$1,800	$1.28	25d	1	1.04mi
18261 Minorea Ln Lehigh Acres, FL	2.0	2.0	1402	$1,595	$1.14	5d	1	1.04mi
209 Punta Alta Ct Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1860	$1,950	$1.05	21d	1	1.04mi
18266 Minorea Ln Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,650	$1.17	25d	1	1.05mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $314,000 Active 110 DOM
2. 2026-02-10
   listed $314,000 Active
3. 2025-12-31
   historical
4. 2025-12-31
   historical
5. 2025-10-14
   status Active
6. 2025-10-13
   price $319,000
7. 2025-10-09
   historical
8. 2025-08-14
   listed $319,000 Active
9. 2025-08-14
   listed $334,500 Active
10. 2025-08-04
    historical
11. 2025-05-21
    listed $349,900 Active
12. 2025-04-03
    historical
13. 2025-01-14
    listed $349,888 Active
14. 2024-09-09
    listed $379,900 Active
15. 2023-07-25
    soldstatus $25,000
16. 2023-05-31
    soldstatus $16,800
17. 2023-05-26
    soldstatus $16,800 Closed
18. 2023-03-17
    status Pending
19. 2023-03-15
    listed $15,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,718 · $310/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,718 · $310/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 54% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,589
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,589
• − Property taxes: −$3,718
• − Insurance: −$1,570
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,047
• − Management: −$2,047
• − Depreciation: −$9,135
• Taxable loss: −$10,517
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,524
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,309/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lehigh Acres

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #826
• US rank: #20055

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lehigh Acres, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 130,638
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 20,277
• Household income: $72,679
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 574.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% Two or more races 30% White 24% Black 20% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 18% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 8% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 35% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 46% English-only · Spanish 43% French/Haitian/Cajun 8% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 21.77%
• Current HPI: 340.4255
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1993.3% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-10 Listed $314,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2025-10-14 Relisted — FORTMLS
• 2025-10-13 Price Changed $319,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-10-09 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2025-08-14 Listed $334,500 FORTMLS
• 2025-08-14 Listed $319,000 MARMLS
• 2025-08-04 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2025-05-21 Listed $349,900 MARMLS
• 2025-04-03 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2025-01-14 Listed $349,888 FORTMLS
• 2024-09-09 Listed $379,900 BEARMLS
• 2023-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 2023-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $16,800 Public Records
• 2023-05-26 Sold (MLS) $16,800 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-17 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-15 Listed $15,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+43.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,718 · +378.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.