3509 Wilmington St · Houston, TX 77051

$235,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,374 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 2015 7,000 sqft lot $171/sqft · 23% above area Est $191k · 23% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Investor opportunity in the rapidly growing Sunnyside area! This energy-efficient 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers strong potential for both investors and owner-occupants. The home features a functional layout with spacious bedrooms, durable tile and luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout, plus an attached garage and private driveway for added convenience. Solar panels and energy-efficient systems help keep utility costs low. The fully fenced lot offers privacy, room for entertaining, and potential for future outdoor upgrades or value-add improvements. Conveniently located just minutes from Hwy 288, Downtown Houston, the Medical Center, and major redevelopment areas, this property is positione

Key facts

• Private driveway
• Functional layout
• Solar panels

Tags

• SOLAR PANELS
• FULLY FENCED LOT
• PRIVATE DRIVEWAY
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• DURABLE TILE
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• Financial info: Lease considered

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (living all on the first floor); Built in 2015
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12 x 14); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12 x 12); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12 x 12); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 11 x 11)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Double vanity; Tub with shower

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-113 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (8.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (7.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (8.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Reynolds El (math 8% / reading 8%, grade F, #4,301 of 4,322 statewide, top 100%, 334 students, 98% FRL); Attucks Middle (math 15% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 439 students, 98% FRL); Worthing H S (math 22% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 827 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 16% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 321 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 14 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask is 14142% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $214,968 (8.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.86%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $191,354
• List price: $235,000
• Delta: 22.81%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9422 Cathedral Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,394 (+2%)	7mo	$205,000	$147	79
9506 Sierra Dr	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,316 (-4%)	3mo	$160,000	$122	78
10014 Sierra Dr	0.48mi	4/2.0	1,243 (-10%)	2mo	$185,000	$149	60
10118 Cathedral Dr	0.57mi	4/2.0	1,293 (-6%)	7mo	$200,000	$155	58
9321 Cathedral Dr	0.23mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,204 (-12%)	4mo	$159,000	$132	56
4210 Larkspur St	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,281 (-7%)	5mo	$199,000	$155	56
4402 Phlox St	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,436 (+4%)	5mo	$239,999	$167	54
4358 Larkspur St	0.67mi	4/2.5	1,501 (+9%)	2mo	$242,500	$162	50
10209 Cathedral Dr	0.58mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,244 (-10%)	3mo	$180,000	$145	48
3034 Corksie St	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,225 (-11%)	0mo	$219,900	$180	45
10006 Chesterfield Dr	0.44mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,170 (-15%)	3mo	$125,000	$107	43
3030 Corksie St	0.68mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,214 (-12%)	7mo	$149,250	$123	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $124,886
• Equity at exit: $211,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.81×
• Total profit: $382,400
• Equity at exit: $456,553

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77051

• Home prices YoY: 9.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 321
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,183 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$441 /mo · $5,294/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $-113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,327

Max offer price $214,968

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $20	-5% $-47	+0% $-113	+5% $-180	+10% $-246
Rent	-10% $-286	-5% $-200	+0% $-113	+5% $-27	+10% $59
Rate	-1.0pp $5	-0.5pp $-54	base $-113	+0.5pp $-174	+1.0pp $-236

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9606 Ashville Dr Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1610	$1,570	$0.98	45d	1	0.29mi
9610 Buffum St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1605	$1,799	$1.12	45d	1	0.59mi
2910 Reed Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1221	$1,228	$1.01	1d	3	0.68mi
10510 Cathedral Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	887	$1,300	$1.47	45d	1	0.77mi
4538 Clover St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1768	$1,595	$0.90	45d	1	0.79mi
2725 Reed Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	911	$975	$1.07	45d	1	0.88mi
4526 Knoxville St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1474	$1,775	$1.20	16d	1	0.96mi
4514 Galesburg St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1680	$3,500	$2.08	26d	1	0.96mi
2937 Amherst Meadow Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1820	$2,450	$1.35	23d	1	1.02mi
2937 Amherst Meadow Ln Unit NA Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1820	$2,400	$1.32	6d	1	1.02mi
4406 Sterling St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1840	$1,999	$1.09	18d	1	1.03mi
8328 Corinth St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,800	$1.87	22d	1	1.03mi
4117 Shelby Cir Unit 1230900P Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1367	$5,253	$3.84	1d	1	1.04mi
10514 Wellesley Terrace Trl Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1843	$2,300	$1.25	19d	1	1.04mi
4723 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1472	$1,850	$1.26	7d	1	1.06mi
3620 Du Bois St Unit 1302349P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1797	$2,945	$1.64	4d	1	1.13mi
10415 Lancaster Ln Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1937	$2,735	$1.41	22d	1	1.13mi
8606 Lee Otis St Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1869	$1,975	$1.06	0d	1	1.14mi
4810 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,650	$1.42	45d	1	1.14mi
8521 Dosia St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,665	$1.62	14d	1	1.16mi
4918 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1300	$2,100	$1.62	45d	1	1.27mi
4921a Pederson St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1765	$2,150	$1.22	14d	1	1.29mi
8010 Livingston St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	45d	1	1.33mi
4601 White Rock St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1700	$2,500	$1.47	45d	1	1.35mi
5012 Higgins St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1611	$1,650	$1.02	26d	1	1.39mi
4609 Bricker St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1300	$3,500	$2.69	14d	1	1.45mi
4609 Bricker St Unit ABC Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1375	$3,500	$2.55	13d	1	1.45mi
4613 Bricker St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,300	$1.44	45d	1	1.45mi
8107 Calhoun Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1304	$2,250	$1.73	26d	1	1.45mi
5036 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1472	$2,050	$1.39	45d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $235,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $235,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $235,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $235,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $235,000 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 10 DOM
13. 2025-12-23
    listed $235,000 Active 877-char remark
14. 2025-12-08
    soldstatus
15. 2025-11-11
    historical $1,900
16. 2025-11-11
    historical
17. 2025-11-04
    listed $215,000 Active
18. 2025-10-24
    price $1,900
19. 2025-10-16
    price $1,950
20. 2025-10-02
    price $2,050
21. 2025-09-14
    price $2,150
22. 2025-09-09
    listed $2,200
23. 2024-11-01
    historical
24. 2024-10-16
    historical $1,900
25. 2024-09-22
    listed $1,900
26. 2024-08-14
    listed $230,000 Active
27. 2016-11-16
    soldstatus
28. 2016-11-15
    soldstatus Sold
29. 2016-09-29
    status Pending
30. 2016-08-27
    listed $139,900 Active
31. 2016-08-18
    historical
32. 2016-07-28
    status Active
33. 2016-07-23
    status Pending
34. 2016-06-17
    status Option Pending
35. 2016-05-23
    listed $159,900 Active
36. 2015-07-16
    historical
37. 2015-07-15
    soldstatus Sold
38. 2015-07-07
    status Pending
39. 2015-06-02
    status Active
40. 2015-06-01
    historical
41. 2015-05-26
    price $17,999
42. 2015-05-13
    status Active
43. 2015-05-04
    status Pending
44. 2015-04-01
    price $19,900
45. 2015-03-02
    listed $21,840 Active
46. 2014-08-22
    soldstatus
47. 2014-06-10
    historical
48. 2014-05-27
    price $24,500
49. 2014-05-22
    listed $26,500 Active
50. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,294 · $441/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,294 · $441/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,196
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$5,294
• − Insurance: −$1,972
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,096
• − Management: −$2,096
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$5,263
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,263
• After-tax cash flow: $-98/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,795
• Household income: $37,415
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1446.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.02%
• Current HPI: 180.4283
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-93.8% since first listed

42 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Rental Removed $1,650 HARMLS
• 2026-05-23 Listed for Rent $1,650 HARMLS
• 2026-05-22 Listed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-23 Listed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-11-11 Rental Removed $1,900 HARMLS
• 2025-11-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-04 Listed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $1,900 HARMLS
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $1,950 HARMLS
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $2,050 HARMLS
• 2025-09-14 Price Changed $2,150 HARMLS
• 2025-09-09 Listed for Rent $2,200 HARMLS
• 2024-11-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-10-16 Rental Removed $1,900 HARMLS
• 2024-09-22 Listed for Rent $1,900 HARMLS
• 2024-08-14 Listed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2016-11-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-11-15 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2016-09-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-08-27 Listed $139,900 HARMLS
• 2016-08-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2016-07-28 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2016-07-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-06-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-05-23 Listed $159,900 HARMLS
• 2015-07-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2015-07-15 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2015-07-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-06-02 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2015-06-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2015-05-26 Price Changed $17,999 HARMLS
• 2015-05-13 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2015-05-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-04-01 Price Changed $19,900 HARMLS
• 2015-03-02 Listed $21,840 HARMLS
• 2014-08-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-06-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2014-05-27 Price Changed $24,500 HARMLS
• 2014-05-22 Listed $26,500 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+12.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,294 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.