1030 Knight St · Lynchburg, VA 24502

$119,995

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,592 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1901 3,446 sqft lot Est $199k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 3,446 sq ft lot
• Built 1901
• Listed 14 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $611 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 4.0% in Lynchburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in VA, #58 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• Lynchburg City Public School District (urban): math 36% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #104 of 131 in VA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sandusky Elementary (math 47% / reading 67%, grade C+, #597 of 1,108 statewide, top 57%, 352 students, 91% FRL); Sandusky Middle (math 29% / reading 52%, grade F, #303 of 342 statewide, top 89%, 568 students, 96% FRL); Heritage High (math 32% / reading 77%, grade C-, #281 of 319 statewide, top 90%, 1,073 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 61% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 318 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 472 units permitted in Lynchburg city in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lynchburg County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.1% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $120k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1901 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,995

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1901 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.83%
• DSCR: 1.97
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $199,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1027 Knight St	0.02mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,387 (-13%)	6mo	$95,000	$68	68
1009 16th St. St	0.18mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,730 (+9%)	8mo	$189,900	$110	66
2032 Poplar St	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,507 (-5%)	4mo	$204,000	$135	66
1011 Polk St	0.55mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,547 (-3%)	2mo	$115,000	$74	64
1109 Harrison St	0.52mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,650 (+4%)	4mo	$265,000	$161	61
1206 10th St	0.57mi	4/2.5	1,605 (+1%)	6mo	$199,900	$125	61
1800 Floyd St	0.19mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,370 (-14%)	3mo	$190,000	$139	61
1531 Augusta St. St	0.53mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,513 (-5%)	4mo	$192,000	$127	58
1706 Union St	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,720 (+8%)	6mo	$85,000	$49	56
1321 Taylor St	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,806 (+13%)	6mo	$136,000	$75	53
1006 Buchanan St	0.66mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,645 (+3%)	1mo	$239,000	$145	51
1205 Fillmore St	0.50mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,370 (-14%)	3mo	$47,500	$35	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $23,116
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.55×
• Total profit: $85,816
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,599 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24502

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 318
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,692 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $553/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $611

Break-even live

Break-even rent $918

Max offer price $119,995

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,999
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1701 Grace St Lynchburg, VA	4.0	2.0	2173	$1,495	$0.69	13d	1	0.12mi
1521 Taylor St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1337	$1,195	$0.89	20d	1	0.17mi
1308 16th St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,800	$1.30	13d	1	0.19mi
1518 Fillmore St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1560	$1,800	$1.15	13d	1	0.28mi
1514 Fillmore St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1560	$1,800	$1.15	13d	1	0.29mi
1415 Floyd St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	20d	1	0.31mi
1316 Harrison St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.5	1535	$1,500	$0.98	43d	1	0.39mi
1110 11th St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.5	2000	$1,450	$0.72	13d	1	0.47mi
1105 Fillmore St Unit B Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,250	$0.96	43d	1	0.53mi
1401 Kemper St Lynchburg, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1118	$1,167	$1.04	20d	6	0.57mi
900 Polk St Unit A Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1100	$895	$0.81	13d	1	0.61mi
812 Taylor St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1872	$1,950	$1.04	13d	1	0.65mi
1008 8th St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,795	$1.36	20d	1	0.68mi
800 Pierce St Lynchburg, VA	4.0	1.0	1714	$1,295	$0.76	43d	1	0.74mi
601 Jackson St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1138	$1,595	$1.40	43d	1	0.82mi
2269 Aragon St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,695	$1.41	43d	1	0.82mi
512 Polk St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1340	$1,295	$0.97	20d	1	0.87mi
2518 Carter St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1091	$1,500	$1.37	43d	1	0.93mi
403 Grove St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,600	$1.14	43d	1	1.05mi
630 Park Ln Lynchburg, VA	4.0	1.5	1434	$1,895	$1.32	13d	1	1.15mi
320 Kenyon St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1736	$1,595	$0.92	43d	1	1.19mi
209 Munford St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1420	$1,497	$1.05	44d	1	1.21mi
2205 Mayflower Dr Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,450	$0.97	20d	1	1.45mi
507 Victoria Ave Unit 507 Lynchburg, VA	4.0	2.0	1480	$1,700	$1.15	20d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-02-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-19
   listed $119,995 Active
3. 2024-11-09
   listed $79,950 Active
4. 1988-01-14
   soldstatus $65,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $553 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $984 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$431/yr (+$36/mo · 78.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,302
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$553
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,624
• − Management: −$1,624
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $5,689
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,365
• After-tax cash flow: $5,970/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lynchburg City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102340
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $39,097
• Composite: 40.4/100
• National rank: #3730
• State rank: #104 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lynchburg

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #58

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lynchburg, VA
• County: Lynchburg City · 97,036 people
• City population: 97,036
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• Population (ZIP): 41,979
• Household income: $68,872
• Rent vs Own: 47.7% rent · 52.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1774.0

Population outlook (Lynchburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,977 people
• By 2030: 93,626 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 106,145 · +20.7%
• By 2050: 120,783 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 162,249 · +84.4%
• By 2100: 191,358 · +117.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 19% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, United Kingdom
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lynchburg

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 45.4% · R 53.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -4.0pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: D+2.6 2016: R+9.0 2012: R+10.6 2008: R+4.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -222.79%
• Current HPI: 241.9041
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.11%
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+84.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-02 Pending — LMLS
• 2026-01-19 Listed $119,995 LMLS
• 2024-11-09 Listed $79,950 LMLS
• 1988-01-14 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $553 · +58.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.