1403 W Main St · Obion, TN 38240

$129,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1961 0.37 ac lot $77/sqft · 9% below area Est $143k · 9% under ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 2-bedroom, 1 bath home located on a desirable corner lot! This inviting home offers a functional layout with spacious rooms perfect for comfortable everyday living. Spacious family room with gas fireplace. Master bedroom with double closets bonus room for a walk-in closet or additional bathroom. Fenced back yard. 24 x 24 workshop New plumbing - 2 car carport and detached garage/ workshop

Key facts

• 24 x 24 workshop
• Fenced back yard
• Double closets

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• GAS FIREPLACE
• DOUBLE CLOSETS
• FENCED BACK YARD
• 24 X 24 WORKSHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $47 ($562/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (16.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $108k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#233 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Obion County (rural): math 40% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #17 of 139 in TN (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 21 units permitted in Obion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Obion County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $97k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,491 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.54%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $142,821
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: -9.05%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1416 W Main Ave	0.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,632 (-3%)	9mo	$185,000	$113	80
1620 W Palestine Ave	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,648 (-2%)	14mo	$176,000	$107	72
1426 W Palestine Ave	0.09mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,788 (+6%)	10mo	$275,000	$154	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.05% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $25,937
• Equity at exit: $66,221

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.18×
• Total profit: $79,448
• Equity at exit: $108,598

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38240

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,085 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $899/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $47

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,026

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 402-char remark

   Show marketing remark (374 chars)

   Charming 2-bedroom, 1 bath home located on a desirable corner lot! This inviting home offers a functional layout with spacious rooms perfect for comfortable everyday living. Spacious family room with gas fireplace. Master bedroom with double closets bonus room for a walk-in closet or additional bathroom. Fenced back yard. 24 x 24 workshop New plumbing. 2 car carport!

2. 2026-05-11
   historical Active Under Contract 374-char remark

   Show marketing remark (374 chars)

   Charming 2-bedroom, 1 bath home located on a desirable corner lot! This inviting home offers a functional layout with spacious rooms perfect for comfortable everyday living. Spacious family room with gas fireplace. Master bedroom with double closets bonus room for a walk-in closet or additional bathroom. Fenced back yard. 24 x 24 workshop New plumbing. 2 car carport!

3. 2026-03-24
   listed $129,900 Active 374-char remark

   Show marketing remark (374 chars)

   Charming 2-bedroom, 1 bath home located on a desirable corner lot! This inviting home offers a functional layout with spacious rooms perfect for comfortable everyday living. Spacious family room with gas fireplace. Master bedroom with double closets bonus room for a walk-in closet or additional bathroom. Fenced back yard. 24 x 24 workshop New plumbing. 2 car carport!

4. 2026-03-23
   listed $129,900 Active 402-char remark

   Show marketing remark (402 chars)

   Charming 2-bedroom, 1 bath home located on a desirable corner lot! This inviting home offers a functional layout with spacious rooms perfect for comfortable everyday living. Spacious family room with gas fireplace. Master bedroom with double closets bonus room for a walk-in closet or additional bathroom. Fenced back yard. 24 x 24 workshop New plumbing - 2 car carport and detached garage/ workshop

5. 2025-10-14
   soldstatus $96,900
6. 2025-10-10
   soldstatus $96,900 Closed
7. 2025-09-02
   historical Active Under Contract
8. 2025-08-12
   status Active
9. 2025-07-31
   historical Active Under Contract
10. 2025-07-25
    price $119,000
11. 2025-06-02
    price $150,000
12. 2025-05-13
    listed $160,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $899 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $922 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: +$23/yr (+$2/mo · 2.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,019
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$899
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,042
• − Management: −$1,042
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$1,668
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$400
• After-tax cash flow: $962/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Obion County
• NCES district ID: 4703270
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,678
• Composite: 32.48/100
• National rank: #5710
• State rank: #17 of 139 in TN

Livability — Obion

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #233
• US rank: #17215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Obion, TN
• Population (ZIP): 1,760

Population outlook (Obion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,434 people
• By 2030: 27,100 · -4.7%
• By 2040: 24,381 · -14.3%
• By 2050: 22,043 · -22.5%
• By 2075: 18,236 · -35.9%
• By 2100: 16,435 · -42.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2% European 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Obion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.9) · D 17.2% · R 82.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.8pp toward R · 2008: -34.1pp · 2024: -64.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.9 2020: R+60.6 2016: R+58.1 2012: R+44.7 2008: R+34.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.05%
• Current HPI: 207.6204
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-18.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — CWTAR
• 2026-05-11 Contingent — RRAR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-03-24 Listed $129,900 RRAR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-03-23 Listed $129,900 CWTAR
• 2025-10-14 Sold (Public Records) $96,900 Public Records
• 2025-10-10 Sold (MLS) $96,900 RRAR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-09-02 Contingent — RRAR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-08-12 Relisted — RRAR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-07-31 Contingent — RRAR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-07-25 Price Changed $119,000 RRAR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-06-02 Price Changed $150,000 RRAR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-05-13 Listed $160,000 RRAR as distributed by MLS GRID

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $899 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.