1231 40th Ave · San Francisco, CA 94122

$1,195,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1911 2,996 sqft lot $664/sqft · 32% below area Est $1761k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.9/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Price reduced!! Well maintained semi-detached two units. The upper unit consists of two bedrooms and one bath, a gorgeous living room with a fireplace, and a formal dining room. The upper unit is currently rented at $1,625 month to month. The lower unit consists of one bedroom and one updated bath, a remodeled kitchen and a spacious living room. The lower unit is currently rented at $1,141 month to month. This property also boasts a large back yard, 2 car tandem parking and is located steps to Golden Gate Park, Ocean Beach and Judah Street transportation.

Key facts

• Large family room
• Formal dining area
• Large flat yard

Tags

• FORMAL DINING AREA
• KITCHEN WITH BREAKFAST AREA
• DIRECT ACCESS TO THE YARD
• LARGE FAMILY ROOM
• LARGE FLAT YARD
• TWO SEPARATE ADDRESSES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached tandem driveway; 2 covered garage spaces (attached); 1 open parking space; 3 total parking spaces
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential single family residence; Property attached
• Construction: Built in 1911
• Exterior features: Back yard fencing; Entry at ground level; Paved sidewalk access

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing gas oven; Free-standing gas range; Free-standing refrigerator; Range hood
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating
• Interior features: Central heating; Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in garage

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $1,195,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$1,761,462) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.20M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-727 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.07M (10.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $866k (27.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $866k (27.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lilienthal (Claire) Elementary (669 students, 19% FRL); Giannini (A.P.) Middle (1,192 students, 34% FRL); Lowell High (2,632 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 49% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.7%/yr); 65 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $8,661/mo this rent would consume 71% of the median local household income ($146k/yr) (locally 2227% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $36k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.16M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 30y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $607k; list at $1.20M implies a 97% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1911 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $866,074 (27.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1911 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.61%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,761,462
• List price: $1,195,000
• Delta: -32.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1500 41st Ave	0.35mi	3/3.0	1,730 (-4%)	1mo	$1,670,000	$965	72
3537 Lawton St	0.49mi	3/3.0	1,820 (+1%)	2mo	$2,050,000	$1,126	70
1375 43rd Ave	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,951 (+8%)	5mo	$1,550,000	$794	70
2628 Lawton St Unit Lawto	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,815 (+1%)	1mo	$1,710,000	$942	63
1423 31st Ave	0.58mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,810 (+1%)	0mo	$1,760,000	$972	63
1662 42nd Ave	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,674 (-7%)	1mo	$2,100,000	$1,254	61
1623 34th Ave	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,701 (-6%)	1mo	$2,150,000	$1,264	60
1706 35th Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,868 (+4%)	4mo	$1,700,000	$910	58
890 48th Ave	0.72mi	3/3.0	1,965 (+9%)	4mo	$1,755,000	$893	44
2825 Lincoln Way	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,555 (-14%)	4mo	$1,600,000	$1,029	41
1334 28th Ave	0.75mi	3/1.0	1,565 (-13%)	3mo	$1,950,000	$1,246	37
827 46th Ave	0.73mi	4/4.0 (+1)	2,050 (+14%)	1mo	$2,200,000	$1,073	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-194,444
• Equity at exit: $178,178

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-21,783
• Equity at exit: $103,322

Cash invested: $334,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City San Francisco: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+57

SF Rent Ordinance + Eviction Protections; relocation $10k+; one of strictest in US.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94122

• Rents YoY: 9.7%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $8,661 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,267
• Tax from tax record: −$804 /mo · $9,648/yr
• Insurance: −$498
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,819
• Net cashflow: $-727

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,581

Max offer price $1,066,638

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-50	-5% $-388	+0% $-727	+5% $-1,065	+10% $-1,403
Rent	-10% $-1,411	-5% $-1,069	+0% $-727	+5% $-385	+10% $-42
Rate	-1.0pp $-125	-0.5pp $-423	base $-727	+0.5pp $-1,036	+1.0pp $-1,351

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $298,750
• Closing costs: $35,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1251 40th Ave San Francisco, CA	4.0	3.0	2195	$14,000	$6.38	5d	1	0.04mi
1401 39th Ave San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	1300	$7,000	$5.38	18d	1	0.25mi
1578 43rd Ave Unit B San Francisco, CA	2.0	2.0	1250	$3,300	$2.64	45d	1	0.48mi
814 41st Ave San Francisco, CA	4.0	3.5	1900	$12,000	$6.32	4d	1	0.65mi
1667 47th Ave San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	1500	$5,775	$3.85	26d	1	0.70mi
1580-1582 28th Ave Unit 1580 San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0	1250	$3,900	$3.12	26d	1	0.87mi
150 Sutro Heights Ave Unit 2 San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0	1260	$4,295	$3.41	0d	1	0.98mi
1801 29th Ave San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	1800	$5,800	$3.22	25d	1	0.99mi
479 35th Ave San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.5	1750	$6,200	$3.54	14d	1	1.13mi
833 24th Ave #831 San Francisco, CA	3.0	1.5	1500	$6,295	$4.20	45d	1	1.14mi
2422 Pacheco St San Francisco, CA	4.0	3.0	1761	$12,000	$6.81	45d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $1,195,000 Pending 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $1,195,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $1,195,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $1,195,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-05-14
   status Active 1325-char remark
6. 2026-05-08
   historical Contingent - Show 1325-char remark
7. 2026-04-29
   listed $1,195,000 Active 1325-char remark
8. 2012-07-31
   soldstatus $607,000 Closed

   Show marketing remark (561 chars)

   Price reduced!! Well maintained semi-detached two units. The upper unit consists of two bedrooms and one bath, a gorgeous living room with a fireplace, and a formal dining room. The upper unit is currently rented at $1,625 month to month. The lower unit consists of one bedroom and one updated bath, a remodeled kitchen and a spacious living room. The lower unit is currently rented at $1,141 month to month. This property also boasts a large back yard, 2 car tandem parking and is located steps to Golden Gate Park, Ocean Beach and Judah Street transportation.

9. 2012-07-31
   soldstatus $607,000

   Show marketing remark (561 chars)

   Price reduced!! Well maintained semi-detached two units. The upper unit consists of two bedrooms and one bath, a gorgeous living room with a fireplace, and a formal dining room. The upper unit is currently rented at $1,625 month to month. The lower unit consists of one bedroom and one updated bath, a remodeled kitchen and a spacious living room. The lower unit is currently rented at $1,141 month to month. This property also boasts a large back yard, 2 car tandem parking and is located steps to Golden Gate Park, Ocean Beach and Judah Street transportation.

10. 2012-07-03
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (561 chars)

    Price reduced!! Well maintained semi-detached two units. The upper unit consists of two bedrooms and one bath, a gorgeous living room with a fireplace, and a formal dining room. The upper unit is currently rented at $1,625 month to month. The lower unit consists of one bedroom and one updated bath, a remodeled kitchen and a spacious living room. The lower unit is currently rented at $1,141 month to month. This property also boasts a large back yard, 2 car tandem parking and is located steps to Golden Gate Park, Ocean Beach and Judah Street transportation.

11. 2012-06-08
    price $635,000

    Show marketing remark (561 chars)

    Price reduced!! Well maintained semi-detached two units. The upper unit consists of two bedrooms and one bath, a gorgeous living room with a fireplace, and a formal dining room. The upper unit is currently rented at $1,625 month to month. The lower unit consists of one bedroom and one updated bath, a remodeled kitchen and a spacious living room. The lower unit is currently rented at $1,141 month to month. This property also boasts a large back yard, 2 car tandem parking and is located steps to Golden Gate Park, Ocean Beach and Judah Street transportation.

12. 2012-06-07
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (561 chars)

    Price reduced!! Well maintained semi-detached two units. The upper unit consists of two bedrooms and one bath, a gorgeous living room with a fireplace, and a formal dining room. The upper unit is currently rented at $1,625 month to month. The lower unit consists of one bedroom and one updated bath, a remodeled kitchen and a spacious living room. The lower unit is currently rented at $1,141 month to month. This property also boasts a large back yard, 2 car tandem parking and is located steps to Golden Gate Park, Ocean Beach and Judah Street transportation.

13. 2012-05-02
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (561 chars)

    Price reduced!! Well maintained semi-detached two units. The upper unit consists of two bedrooms and one bath, a gorgeous living room with a fireplace, and a formal dining room. The upper unit is currently rented at $1,625 month to month. The lower unit consists of one bedroom and one updated bath, a remodeled kitchen and a spacious living room. The lower unit is currently rented at $1,141 month to month. This property also boasts a large back yard, 2 car tandem parking and is located steps to Golden Gate Park, Ocean Beach and Judah Street transportation.

14. 2012-04-12
    listed $659,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (561 chars)

    Price reduced!! Well maintained semi-detached two units. The upper unit consists of two bedrooms and one bath, a gorgeous living room with a fireplace, and a formal dining room. The upper unit is currently rented at $1,625 month to month. The lower unit consists of one bedroom and one updated bath, a remodeled kitchen and a spacious living room. The lower unit is currently rented at $1,141 month to month. This property also boasts a large back yard, 2 car tandem parking and is located steps to Golden Gate Park, Ocean Beach and Judah Street transportation.

15. 1997-07-23
    soldstatus $283,900
16. 1997-07-23
    soldstatus $283,900
17. 1997-07-17
    historical
18. 1997-07-16
    historical
19. 1997-06-03
    listed $286,500
20. 1996-11-11
    listed $286,500
21. 1996-06-11
    listed $299,862

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,648 · $804/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,648 · $804/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥74°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $103,929
• − Mortgage interest: −$66,939
• − Property taxes: −$9,648
• − Insurance: −$5,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$8,314
• − Management: −$8,314
• − Depreciation: −$34,764
• Taxable loss: −$30,025
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,206
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,514/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Francisco Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634410
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $81,249
• Composite: 50.14/100
• National rank: #4088
• State rank: #322 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Francisco

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3143

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Francisco, CA
• County: San Francisco County · 827,552 people
• City population: 827,552
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 55,819
• Household income: $146,250
• Rent vs Own: 51.8% rent · 48.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2227.0

Population outlook (San Francisco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,030,936 people
• By 2030: 1,110,409 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 1,270,010 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 1,435,001 · +39.2%
• By 2075: 1,779,074 · +72.6%
• By 2100: 1,966,767 · +90.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 44% White 36% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 36% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Chinese 26% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · San Francisco

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 80.3% · R 15.5% · Other 4.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.7pp toward R · 2008: 70.5pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+72.5 2016: D+76.1 2012: D+70.2 2008: D+70.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -946.32%
• Current HPI: 314.9762
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.73%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+298.5% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Pending — San Francisco MLS
• 2026-05-14 Relisted — San Francisco MLS
• 2026-05-08 Contingent — San Francisco MLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $1,195,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2012-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $607,000 Public Records
• 2012-07-31 Sold (MLS) $607,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2012-07-03 Pending — San Francisco MLS
• 2012-06-08 Price Changed $635,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2012-06-07 Relisted — San Francisco MLS
• 2012-05-02 Pending — San Francisco MLS
• 2012-04-12 Listed $659,000 San Francisco MLS
• 1997-07-23 Sold (MLS) $283,900 San Francisco MLS
• 1997-07-23 Sold (MLS) $283,900 San Francisco MLS
• 1997-07-17 Delisted — San Francisco MLS
• 1997-07-16 Delisted — San Francisco MLS
• 1997-06-03 Listed $286,500 San Francisco MLS
• 1996-11-11 Listed $286,500 San Francisco MLS
• 1996-06-11 Listed $299,862 San Francisco MLS

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,648 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.