101 Natalie Ln · Conashaugh Lakes, PA 18337

$34,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 400 sqft · SingleFamily · 24 Days on market

Built 1988 Fair condition 4,792 sqft lot Est $42k · 18% under $233/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

972 NATALIE LANE (911 103 NATALIE LANE). Estate sale. 2 bedroom park model with 1 double or queen bed and two twin beds. Upgraded flooring and roof. Deck and shed included. 50 amp corner site with 2 driveways. Let the good times roll. By owner/broker. Seller is a licensed PA real estate broker. Will finance with 15k to 25k down. $39,900.00

Key facts

• Shed
• Upgraded flooring
• Deck

Tags

• UPGRADED FLOORING
• UPGRADED ROOF
• DECK
• SHED
• 50 AMP CORNER SITE
• 2 DRIVEWAYS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: From the front gate take the third left (Village Dr East). Proceed until Natalie Lane; the property is on the north corner of Village Dr East and Natalie Lane.
• Financial info: Annual tax amount listed as $240.91
• HOA & community: Homeowners association present; Annual association fee of $2,800 (about $233.33/month)

Exterior

• Home design: Residential property listed as Vacation RV/Trailer
• Construction: 400 square feet above-grade finished area
• Exterior features: Located on a 0.11-acre parcel; Subdivision: Lake Adventure; Commercial zoning

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Total of 4 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $805 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $34k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 34.0% vs local median 5.3% in Conashaugh Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#786 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Delaware Valley SD (rural): math 41% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #121 of 539 in PA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 297 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $241 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $34,376 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 33.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 98.89%
• DSCR: 5.40
• GRM: 1.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $42,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
114 Glenwood Landing Lndg	0.40mi	2/1.0	407 (+2%)	3mo	$36,457	$90	76
102 Lake Dr N #1772	0.25mi	2/1.0	385 (-4%)	8mo	$91,500	$238	76
131 Bobcat Dr	0.39mi	1/1.0 (-1)	399 (-0%)	4mo	$84,000	$211	73
121 Birchy Brook Dr	0.13mi	2/1.0	340 (-15%)	3mo	$36,000	$106	67
154 Village Dr W	0.53mi	2/1.0	400 (0%)	10mo	$40,000	$100	67
120 Forest Glen Dr	0.65mi	3/1.0 (+1)	400 (0%)	0mo	$40,000	$100	64
126 Deer Run	0.64mi	2/1.0	400 (0%)	10mo	$109,000	$273	62
216 Village Dr W	0.32mi	2/1.0	345 (-14%)	6mo	$62,000	$180	57
120 Crescent Dr	0.73mi	2/1.0	392 (-2%)	8mo	$37,000	$94	56
224 Locust Lake Dr	0.56mi	2/1.0	360 (-10%)	2mo	$40,000	$111	56
104 Glenwood Lndg	0.40mi	1/1.0 (-1)	340 (-15%)	0mo	$11,000	$32	51
140 Blue Aspen Dr	0.65mi	2/1.0	350 (-12%)	9mo	$24,000	$69	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 5.69×
• Total profit: $45,802
• Equity at exit: $5,204

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.91×
• Total profit: $106,608
• Equity at exit: $3,018

Cash invested: $9,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18337

• Home prices YoY: -22.0%
• Active inventory: 297
• Price-to-rent: 1.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,620 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$183
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$44 /mo · $524/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$233
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $805

Break-even live

Break-even rent $600

Max offer price $34,900

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $829	-5% $817	+0% $805	+5% $793	+10% $781
Rent	-10% $677	-5% $741	+0% $805	+5% $869	+10% $933
Rate	-1.0pp $823	-0.5pp $814	base $805	+0.5pp $796	+1.0pp $787

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,725
• Closing costs: $1,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $233 · $2,796/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $34,900 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $34,900 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $34,900 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $34,900 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $34,900 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,900 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,900 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,900 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,900 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,900 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $39,900 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $39,900 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,900 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,900 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,900 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,435
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,955
• − Property taxes: −$524
• − Insurance: −$174
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,555
• − Management: −$1,555
• − HOA: −$2,796
• − Depreciation: −$1,015
• Taxable income: $9,861
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,367
• After-tax cash flow: $7,297/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This mobile home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, including kitchen and bathroom renovations, roof replacement, and exterior updates. These improvements would significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and worn
• Moderate bathroom fixtures — dated and worn
• Moderate roof — visible moss and potential wear
• Moderate exterior siding — moss and potential wear
• Moderate landscaping — overgrown yard

Value-add opportunities

• Both kitchen renovation — modernizing the kitchen would improve both resale and rental value
• Both bathroom renovation — modernizing the bathroom would improve both resale and rental value
• Both roof replacement — replacing the roof would improve both resale and rental value
• Both exterior siding and landscaping — updating the exterior and landscaping would improve both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and worn	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom fixtures · dated and worn	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
roof · visible moss and potential wear	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
exterior siding · moss and potential wear	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
landscaping · overgrown yard	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$15,000–75,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both kitchen renovation — modernizing the kitchen would improve both resale and rental value ↑
• Both bathroom renovation — modernizing the bathroom would improve both resale and rental value ↑
• Both roof replacement — replacing the roof would improve both resale and rental value ↑
• Both exterior siding and landscaping — updating the exterior and landscaping would improve both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Delaware Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207530
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $64,202
• Composite: 46.95/100
• National rank: #2359
• State rank: #121 of 539 in PA

Livability — Conashaugh Lakes

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #786
• US rank: #7924

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pike County · 15,799 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,799
• Household income: $93,149
• Rent vs Own: 14.2% rent · 85.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 275.0

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Iranian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.81%
• Current HPI: 194.0604
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $39,900 PWMLS