153 Rollins Dr · Haines City, FL 33837

$299,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 103 Days on market

Built 1997 9,688 sqft lot $40/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. This home qualifies for an assumable loan at an attractive 4.25% interest rate, offering a rare and significant advantage in today’s market. Don’t miss this opportunity to own a beautiful two-story home located in a desirable gated community in Davenport, just minutes from Disney Theme Parks and LEGOLAND. This well-maintained property features a first-floor primary suite for added convenience and a carpet-free interior for easy maintenance. Enjoy very low electric bills year-round thanks to solar panels and a new water heater. Situated on an oversized, fully fenced lot offering extra privacy, the home also includes a screened-in porch and

Key facts

• New water heater
• Carpet-free interior
• Solar panels

Tags

• FIRST-FLOOR PRIMARY SUITE
• CARPET-FREE INTERIOR
• SOLAR PANELS
• NEW WATER HEATER
• OVERSIZED LOT
• FULLY FENCED LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $40 (Garrison Property Services LLC); Pets allowed; Association fee required

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Broadband/High-speed internet available
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Two stories; North-facing
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.22 acre lot
• Exterior features: Porch; Screened porch; Shed(s); Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Walk-in closets; Sliding doors
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located outside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9 ($112/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (22.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (22.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 1382 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $88k; list at $300k implies a 242% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $233,489 (22.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.13%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-54,955
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-73,981
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33837

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 1382
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,335 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,171/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$490
• Net cashflow: $9

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,323

Max offer price $299,900

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $179	-5% $94	+0% $9	+5% $-76	+10% $-160
Rent	-10% $-175	-5% $-83	+0% $9	+5% $102	+10% $194
Rate	-1.0pp $160	-0.5pp $86	base $9	+0.5pp $-68	+1.0pp $-147

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2115 Palmer Rd Davenport, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1613	$2,395	$1.48	4d	19	0.16mi
107 Nicholson Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1396	$2,000	$1.43	24d	1	0.17mi
3445 Huntwicke Blvd Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1525	$1,995	$1.31	24d	1	0.19mi
211 Aylesbury Ln Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1402	$2,500	$1.78	24d	1	0.38mi
129 Victory Ave Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,350	$1.47	24d	1	0.38mi
309 Vizcay Way Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1759	$2,435	$1.38	15d	1	0.44mi
636 Majesty Dr Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1446	$2,395	$1.66	15d	1	0.45mi
768 Majesty Dr Davenport, FL	4.0	3.0	1531	$2,400	$1.57	24d	1	0.45mi
2641 Olympic Ct Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,000	$1.20	24d	1	0.54mi
2939 Maloof Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1787	$2,050	$1.15	24d	1	0.57mi
2312 Gifford Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1789	$2,100	$1.17	24d	1	0.58mi
2223 Tongass Bnd Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,100	$1.26	4d	1	0.58mi
3107 Kurtz Ter Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1787	$1,900	$1.06	24d	1	0.63mi
3111 Kurtz Ter Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1787	$2,050	$1.15	4d	1	0.63mi
3119 Kurtz Ter Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1628	$1,890	$1.16	24d	1	0.64mi
3123 Kurtz Ter Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1787	$2,050	$1.15	4d	1	0.64mi
1105 Grassy Lake Dr Davenport, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	987	$2,065	$2.09	4d	103	0.64mi
1532 Lumber Ave Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1463	$2,000	$1.37	24d	1	0.64mi
3106 Kurtz Ter Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1787	$2,100	$1.18	15d	1	0.66mi
3122 Kurtz Ter Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1787	$1,900	$1.06	24d	1	0.66mi
3126 Kurtz Ter Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1629	$1,900	$1.17	4d	1	0.66mi
1256 Draintree St Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1692	$2,275	$1.34	24d	1	0.68mi
1440 Plank Pl Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1789	$2,100	$1.17	24d	1	0.69mi
188 Holly Village Dr Unit 189 Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1348	$2,100	$1.56	15d	1	0.69mi
188 Holly Village Dr Unit 188 Davenport, FL	4.0	2.5	1620	$2,000	$1.23	4d	1	0.69mi
1419 Plank Pl Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,300	$1.57	24d	1	0.71mi
1215 Draintree St Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$1,900	$1.14	15d	1	0.73mi
1204 Draintree St Davenport, FL	3.0	3.0	1758	$1,975	$1.12	4d	1	0.74mi
2419 Bevel Ln Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1628	$1,850	$1.14	24d	1	0.78mi
2419 Bevel Ln Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1628	$1,850	$1.14	20d	1	0.78mi
544 Pinecrest Loop Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1435	$1,895	$1.32	4d	1	0.88mi
5308 Rocky Hawk Run Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$2,150	$1.45	20d	1	0.94mi
338 Pinecrest Loop Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1616	$2,000	$1.24	24d	1	0.96mi
1831 Rock Elm Rd Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1463	$1,950	$1.33	22d	1	1.01mi
1823 Rock Elm Rd Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,050	$1.40	12d	1	1.01mi
1773 Rock Elm Rd Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1488	$1,950	$1.31	24d	1	1.01mi
1824 Rock Elm Rd Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1464	$1,950	$1.33	20d	1	1.04mi
915 Knollwood Dr Davenport, FL	5.0	3.0	1863	$2,400	$1.29	24d	1	1.07mi
3025 Ascend Ridge Dr Davenport, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1172	$2,149	$1.83	4d	14	1.10mi
1128 Merrill St Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1480	$1,800	$1.22	4d	1	1.11mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectricsecurity

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   price $299,900
3. 2026-03-09
   price $309,900
4. 2026-01-21
   listed $315,000 Active
5. 1997-05-12
   soldstatus $87,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,171 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,489 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,319/yr (+$110/mo · 112.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,019
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$1,171
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,241
• − Management: −$2,241
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$5,138
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,233
• After-tax cash flow: $1,345/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 47,389
• Household income: $81,276
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 424.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 42% White 36% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 22% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 6% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -131.62%
• Current HPI: 256.8165
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.73%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+241.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $299,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $309,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-21 Listed $315,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-05-12 Sold (Public Records) $87,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,171 · +12.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.