141 Camden Shrs · Madison, MS 39110

$435,750

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,320 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 198 Days on market

Built 2014 0.32 ac lot $188/sqft · 10% below area Est $503k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your dream home in Lake Caroline! Nestled on a quiet cul-de-sac, this beautiful 4-bedroom, 3-full-bath home spans approximately 2,405 sq ft and offers space, comfort and community amenities. The spacious living area invites gatherings and relaxed everyday living, while a screened-in back porch provides a serene outdoor retreat year-round. A large backyard stretches just beyond—ready for play, landscaping or outdoor entertaining. Inside you'll find four generously sized bedrooms and three full baths. The layout flows for modern living, with the living area at the heart of the home and easy access to the outdoor porch and yard. Situated at the end of a cul-de-sac, this location ensures added privacy and minimal through-traffic. And you'll love the lifestyle: Residents at Lake Caroline enjoy resort-style amenities including salt-water swimming pools with wading pools and playgrounds. Tennis and pickleball courts, scenic walking trails and lakeside recreation are part of the package. You'll also have boating and fishing access on the neighborhood's private lake — ideal for enjoying water activities. And for a dining-or-social stop, the well-known Mermaid Cafe sits right in the community. This home offers the perfect blend of comfortable living and active-community appeal — don't miss the opportunity to make it yours. Schedule a showing today!

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Cul-de-sac
• 0.32 acre lot

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC
• SCREENED-IN BACK PORCH
• LARGE BACKYARD
• RESORT-STYLE AMENITIES
• SALT-WATER SWIMMING POOLS
• TENNIS AND PICKLEBALL COURTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $436k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-392 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $367k (15.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $288k (34.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $288k (34.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.8% in Madison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#4 in MS, #1,556 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Madison County School District (rural): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #3 of 130 in MS (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mannsdale Elementary (633 students, 100% FRL); Germantown Middle School (math 55% / reading 58%, grade B, #14 of 179 statewide, top 7%, 1,008 students, 100% FRL); Germantown High School (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #59 of 197 statewide, top 30%, 1,396 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 29% district-wide (70 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 634 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 553 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 198 days — a 12% lower offer ($383k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $287,559 (34.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 198 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.85%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $502,780
• List price: $435,750
• Delta: -13.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
828 Thornberry Rdg	0.30mi	4/3.0	2,411 (+4%)	1mo	$533,900	$221	79
121 Covey Run	0.41mi	4/3.0	2,395 (+3%)	1mo	$394,000	$165	74
107 Camden Lake Dr	0.16mi	4/3.5	2,612 (+13%)	1mo	$459,900	$176	68
822 Thornberry Rdg	0.22mi	4/3.0	2,625 (+13%)	2mo	$582,750	$222	66
100 Camden Vale	0.56mi	4/3.0	2,464 (+6%)	1mo	$479,000	$194	63
384 Wellstone Pl	0.61mi	4/5.0	2,301 (-1%)	1mo	$506,000	$220	61
326 Wellstone Pl	0.69mi	4/3.0	2,398 (+3%)	1mo	$489,000	$204	61
366 Wellstone Pl	0.61mi	4/3.0	2,450 (+6%)	2mo	$540,000	$220	61
123 Paylors Way	0.67mi	4/3.0	2,427 (+5%)	1mo	$485,000	$200	60
371 Wellstone Pl	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,225 (-4%)	1mo	$479,000	$215	56
120 Hampton Chase	0.66mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,126 (-8%)	1mo	$199,000	$94	48
102 Hampton Chase	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,030 (-12%)	2mo	$370,000	$182	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-96,858
• Equity at exit: $64,972

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.00×
• Total profit: $-121,742
• Equity at exit: $37,676

Cash invested: $122,010 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39110

• Home prices YoY: -28.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 634
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,876 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,285
• Tax from tax record: −$197 /mo · $2,362/yr
• Insurance: −$182
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$604
• Net cashflow: $-392

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,372

Max offer price $366,539

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-145	-5% $-268	+0% $-392	+5% $-515	+10% $-638
Rent	-10% $-619	-5% $-505	+0% $-392	+5% $-278	+10% $-165
Rate	-1.0pp $-172	-0.5pp $-281	base $-392	+0.5pp $-505	+1.0pp $-620

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $108,938
• Closing costs: $13,072
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 Mason Way Madison, MS	3.0	2.0	1614	$2,600	$1.61	45d	1	0.89mi
108 Buckeye Dr Madison, MS	4.0	3.5	2400	$2,650	$1.10	46d	1	1.35mi
125 Memory Ln Madison, MS	3.0	2.0	1838	$2,800	$1.52	25d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $435,750 Active 198 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $435,750 Active 197 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $435,750 Active 196 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $435,750 Active 195 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $435,750 Active 191 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $435,750 Active 190 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $435,750 Active 189 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $435,750 Active 188 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $435,750 Active 187 DOM
10. 2026-05-19
    price $435,750 1407-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1407 chars)

    Welcome to your dream home in Lake Caroline! Nestled on a quiet cul-de-sac, this beautiful 4-bedroom, 3-full-bath home spans approximately 2,405 sq ft and offers space, comfort and community amenities. The spacious living area invites gatherings and relaxed everyday living, while a screened-in back porch provides a serene outdoor retreat year-round. A large backyard stretches just beyond—ready for play, landscaping or outdoor entertaining. Inside you'll find four generously sized bedrooms and three full baths. The layout flows for modern living, with the living area at the heart of the home and easy access to the outdoor porch and yard. Situated at the end of a cul-de-sac, this location ensures added privacy and minimal through-traffic. And you'll love the lifestyle: Residents at Lake Caroline enjoy resort-style amenities including salt-water swimming pools with wading pools and playgrounds. Tennis and pickleball courts, scenic walking trails and lakeside recreation are part of the package. You'll also have boating and fishing access on the neighborhood's private lake — ideal for enjoying water activities. And for a dining-or-social stop, the well-known Mermaid Cafe sits right in the community. This home offers the perfect blend of comfortable living and active-community appeal — don't miss the opportunity to make it yours. Schedule a showing today!

11. 2025-11-24
    listed $445,000 Active 1407-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1407 chars)

    Welcome to your dream home in Lake Caroline! Nestled on a quiet cul-de-sac, this beautiful 4-bedroom, 3-full-bath home spans approximately 2,405 sq ft and offers space, comfort and community amenities. The spacious living area invites gatherings and relaxed everyday living, while a screened-in back porch provides a serene outdoor retreat year-round. A large backyard stretches just beyond—ready for play, landscaping or outdoor entertaining. Inside you'll find four generously sized bedrooms and three full baths. The layout flows for modern living, with the living area at the heart of the home and easy access to the outdoor porch and yard. Situated at the end of a cul-de-sac, this location ensures added privacy and minimal through-traffic. And you'll love the lifestyle: Residents at Lake Caroline enjoy resort-style amenities including salt-water swimming pools with wading pools and playgrounds. Tennis and pickleball courts, scenic walking trails and lakeside recreation are part of the package. You'll also have boating and fishing access on the neighborhood's private lake — ideal for enjoying water activities. And for a dining-or-social stop, the well-known Mermaid Cafe sits right in the community. This home offers the perfect blend of comfortable living and active-community appeal — don't miss the opportunity to make it yours. Schedule a showing today!

12. 2025-06-06
    historical
13. 2025-03-13
    listed $445,000 Active
14. 2014-04-01
    soldstatus
15. 2014-02-05
    listed $280,000
16. 2013-07-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,362 · $197/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,442 · $287/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,081/yr (+$90/mo · 45.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 76% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,507
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,409
• − Property taxes: −$2,362
• − Insurance: −$2,179
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,761
• − Management: −$2,761
• − Depreciation: −$12,676
• Taxable loss: −$12,640
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,034
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,668/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802790
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $70,579
• Composite: 48.08/100
• National rank: #2188
• State rank: #3 of 130 in MS

Livability — Madison

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #1556

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Madison County · 75,005 people
• City population: 50,443
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 50,443
• Household income: $125,506
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 227.0

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,509 people
• By 2030: 131,737 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 148,930 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 164,300 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 197,495 · +61.2%
• By 2100: 211,429 · +72.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 15% Asian 4% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+17.3) · D 40.8% · R 58.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: -15.6pp · 2024: -17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.3 2020: R+11.8 2016: R+16.1 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.99%
• Current HPI: 154.6909
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+55.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $435,750 MLSU
• 2025-11-24 Listed $445,000 MLSU
• 2025-06-06 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-03-13 Listed $445,000 MLSU
• 2014-04-01 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2014-02-05 Listed $280,000 MLSU
• 2013-07-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+22.2%/yr

Latest (2021): $2,362 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.