2800 S White Mountain Rd #107 · Show Low, AZ 85901

$49,999

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 421 sqft · SingleFamily · 53 Days on market

55+ age-restricted Built 1988 Good condition $119/sqft · 64% below area ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 1 Bedroom Retreat in a 55+ Park! Cozy and inviting, this one bedroom, one bath home backs the tall pines and offers a sense of privacy with a lovely screened in porch, perfect for enjoying the peaceful setting or relaxing during summer monsoons. Inside, the home is exceptionally clean and features an upgraded refrigerator, with furnishings that make it truly move in ready. Located in a welcoming 55+ park, this home is ideal for a weekend getaway, full time living, or a tranquil mountain retreat. Lot rent 620 per month Water around 13.97 Sewer around 19.73 Trash around 18.

Key facts

• Screened in porch
• Peaceful setting
• Built 1988

Tags

• SCREENED IN PORCH
• UPGRADED REFRIGERATOR
• PEACEFUL SETTING

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $49,999 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$138,610) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $693 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.9% vs local median 3.2% in Show Low — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#90 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Blue Ridge Unified School District No. 32 (4397) (town): math 21% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #139 of 249 in AZ (top 56%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Blue Ridge Elementary School (math 20% / reading 30%, grade F, #638 of 1,109 statewide, top 58%, 818 students, 60% FRL); Blue Ridge Jr High School (math 21% / reading 26%, grade F, #113 of 218 statewide, top 53%, 267 students, 64% FRL); Blue Ridge High School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #120 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 669 students, 49% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1067 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,499 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 59.42%
• DSCR: 3.64
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $138,610
• List price: $49,999
• Delta: -63.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2800 S White Mountain Rd	0.01mi	1/1.0	385 (-9%)	3mo	$53,000	$138	83
2161 Saddlebag Ln	0.99mi	1/1.0	400 (-5%)	11mo	$120,000	$300	47
2261 E Turtle Creek Rd	1.00mi	1/1.0	390 (-7%)	8mo	$243,000	$623	46
2220 E Horse Shoe Loop	0.95mi	1/1.0	374 (-11%)	2mo	$260,000	$695	45
2340 E Elizabeth Ave	1.05mi	1/1.0	374 (-11%)	3mo	$224,900	$601	44
4461 S Elk Trot Loop	0.91mi	1/1.0	465 (+10%)	8mo	$243,000	$523	41
2301 E Saddlebag Ln	1.02mi	1/1.0	385 (-9%)	14mo	$220,000	$571	39
3890 S Mule Skinner Loop	0.93mi	2/1.0 (+1)	481 (+14%)	1mo	$234,000	$486	35
2260 E Elizabeth Ave	1.02mi	1/1.0	385 (-9%)	22mo	$200,000	$519	33
2140 E Tenderfoot Trl	0.98mi	1/1.0	385 (-9%)	23mo	$205,000	$532	32
2341 E Tenderfoot Trl	1.05mi	1/1.0	374 (-11%)	21mo	$200,000	$535	29
3721 S Latigo Way	0.89mi	1/1.0	485 (+15%)	22mo	$135,000	$278	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 58.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.58×
• Total profit: $36,072
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 62.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.31×
• Total profit: $88,346
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 8 active · 4 under contract
• Months of supply: 16.0 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $214,650 ($462/sqft)
• Median days on market: 70 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -28.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85901

• Home prices YoY: -14.5%
• Active inventory: 1067
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,315 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $750/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $693

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $49,999

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $728	-5% $711	+0% $693	+5% $676	+10% $659
Rent	-10% $589	-5% $641	+0% $693	+5% $745	+10% $797
Rate	-1.0pp $718	-0.5pp $706	base $693	+0.5pp $680	+1.0pp $667

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Private maintained roadPrivate adjoining propertyLocated in the Timberline RV & MHP subdivisionDirections available from 260 to Timberline; home is #107
• HOA & community: No HOALocated in a 55+ communityHome is on leased land (monthly lease $620)

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewerMetered water availablePower availableAPS service availableBottled gas availableCable TV available
• Home design: Manufactured park modelSingle level
• Construction: Manufactured constructionOther foundationMetal and rolled roof
• Exterior features: Landscaped lot with tall pines and treesPaved streetScreened porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric rangeMicrowaveDisposalPantryRefrigeratorEat-in kitchen and kitchen/dining/living room combo
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom downstairs
• Bathrooms: Full bathroom with tub/shower
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (electric)Central A/C
• Interior features: Master bedroom located downstairsFireplace in the living room
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer includedElectric water heater

Listing history 45 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $49,999 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $49,999 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $49,999 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $49,999 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $49,999 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $49,999 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $49,999 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $49,999 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $49,999 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $49,999 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $49,999 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $49,999 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $49,999 Active 37 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $49,999 Active 36 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $49,999 Active 35 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $49,999 Active 32 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $49,999 Active 30 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $49,999 Active 29 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $49,999 Active 28 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $49,999 Active 27 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $49,999 Active 26 DOM
22. 2026-07-12
    days on market $49,999 Active 25 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $49,999 Active 24 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $49,999 Active 23 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $49,999 Active 22 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $49,999 Active 21 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $49,999 Active 20 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $49,999 Active 19 DOM
29. 2026-07-04
    days on market $49,999 Active 18 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $49,999 Active 17 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $49,999 Active 16 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $49,999 Active 15 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on marketlisting id $49,999 Active 14 DOM
34. 2026-06-30
    days on marketlisting id $49,999 Active 36 DOM
35. 2026-06-29
    price $49,999 Active 13 DOM
36. 2026-06-29
    days on market $60,000 Active 13 DOM
37. 2026-06-28
    days on market $60,000 Active 12 DOM
38. 2026-06-27
    days on market $60,000 Active 11 DOM
39. 2026-06-26
    days on market $60,000 Active 9 DOM
40. 2026-06-22
    days on market $60,000 Active 6 DOM
41. 2026-06-21
    days on market $60,000 Active 5 DOM
42. 2026-06-19
    days on market $60,000 Active 3 DOM
43. 2026-06-18
    days on market $60,000 Active 2 DOM
44. 2026-06-17
    remarks 604-char remark
45. 2026-06-17
    listed $60,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,779
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$750
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,262
• − Management: −$1,262
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $7,999
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,920
• After-tax cash flow: $6,399/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $2,105–$6,315 screening

This charming 1-bedroom home in a 55+ park is move-in ready with upgrades and a cozy atmosphere. Minor improvements could further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Improves aesthetics and increases value ↑
• Both Install new windows — Enhances energy efficiency and curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Blue Ridge Elementary School F AZ #638/1,109 Nat'l #29,899/41,679 Middle Blue Ridge Jr High School F AZ #113/218 Nat'l #10,902/14,009 High Blue Ridge High School F AZ #120/381 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blue Ridge Unified School District No. 32 (4397)
• NCES district ID: 0406580
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $49,406
• Composite: 21.97/100
• National rank: #8213
• State rank: #139 of 249 in AZ

C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Show Low

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #13573

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Show Low, AZ
• County: Navajo · 105,760 people
• City population: 18,821
• Population (ZIP): 18,821
• Household income: $60,313
• Rent vs Own: 25.1% rent · 74.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.52%
• Current HPI: 386.3007
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Private maintained roadPrivate adjoining propertyLocated in the Timberline RV & MHP subdivisionDirections available from 260 to Timberline; home is #107
• HOA & community: No HOALocated in a 55+ communityHome is on leased land (monthly lease $620)

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewerMetered water availablePower availableAPS service availableBottled gas availableCable TV available
• Home design: Manufactured park modelSingle level
• Construction: Manufactured constructionOther foundationMetal and rolled roof
• Exterior features: Landscaped lot with tall pines and treesPaved streetScreened porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric rangeMicrowaveDisposalPantryRefrigeratorEat-in kitchen and kitchen/dining/living room combo
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom downstairs
• Bathrooms: Full bathroom with tub/shower
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (electric)Central A/C
• Interior features: Master bedroom located downstairsFireplace in the living room
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer includedElectric water heater

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-29 Price Changed $49,999 WMMLS
• 2026-06-16 Listed $60,000 WMMLS