12502 Ashford Meadow Dr #4 · Houston, TX 77082

$300,000

8 bd · 8.0 ba · 3,924 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1981 2,859 sqft lot $76/sqft · 18% below area Est $367k · 18% under $360/mo HOA · 25% of rent ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 3 units. confirmed

Key facts

• 2,859 sq ft lot
• Built 1981
• Listed 41 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Managed by Genesis Community Management; Association fee $360 monthly

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric heating and cooling
• Home design: Residential income property; Built in 1981
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 2,859 square feet

Interior

• Bedrooms: Total of 4 units (multifamily property)
• Bathrooms: 8 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Seller disclosure provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3 × 3-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $261 ($3k/yr) — positive. Per door: $87/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $300k).
• Recommended offer: $291k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Alief ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #717 of 826 in TX (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: O'Donnell Middle (math 32% / reading 33%, grade F, #947 of 1,662 statewide, top 58%, 1,230 students, 89% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 294 active listings in the ZIP; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,317/mo this rent would consume 83% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 3722% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $291,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
6. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.83%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $367,482
• List price: $300,000
• Delta: -18.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12655 Ashford Meadow Dr Unit ABCD	0.18mi	8/8.0	4,044 (+3%)	5mo	$289,999	$72	82
12654 Ashford Meadow Dr Dr	0.18mi	8/8.0	3,746 (-4%)	4mo	$299,500	$80	80
12646 Ashford Meadow Dr #4	0.15mi	8/8.0	4,272 (+9%)	23mo	$225,000	$53	59
12659 Ashford Meadow Dr #4	0.19mi	8/2.0	3,746 (-4%)	16mo	$370,000	$99	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.21% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-33,803
• Equity at exit: $55,458

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-45,039
• Equity at exit: $44,746

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77082

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 294
• Price-to-rent: 17.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,317 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$664 /mo · $7,971/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$360
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$907
• Net cashflow: $261

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,986

Max offer price $300,000

Occupancy floor 89%

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	3	—	$4,317
Total (3 units)			$4,317

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $360 · $4,320/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $300,000 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $300,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $300,000 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $300,000 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $300,000 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $300,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $300,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $300,000 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $300,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $300,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $300,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $300,000 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $300,000 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-05-08
    listed $300,000 Active
15. 2025-08-07
    historical
16. 2024-12-11
    listed $355,000 Active
17. 2024-11-30
    price $355,000
18. 2024-11-12
    price $365,000
19. 2024-08-07
    listed $385,000 Active
20. 2003-04-08
    soldstatus
21. 2003-01-03
    soldstatus
22. 2001-06-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,971 · $664/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,971 · $664/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,804
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$7,971
• − Insurance: −$6,619
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,144
• − Management: −$4,144
• − HOA: −$4,320
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$926
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$222
• After-tax cash flow: $3,359/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alief ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807830
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $37,775
• Composite: 21.29/100
• National rank: #8391
• State rank: #717 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 59,412
• Household income: $62,455
• Rent vs Own: 63.6% rent · 36.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 3722.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 40% Hispanic / Latino 27% White 20% Two or more races 14% Asian 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Armenian 2% Arab 1% Lithuanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 39% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 4% Arabic 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.21%
• Current HPI: 237.2183
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.62%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-22.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $300,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-12-11 Listed $355,000 HARMLS
• 2024-11-30 Price Changed $355,000 HARMLS
• 2024-11-12 Price Changed $365,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-07 Listed $385,000 HARMLS
• 2003-04-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-01-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-06-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,971 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.