3100 Turner Rd SE #713 · Salem, OR 97302

$139,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 279 Days on market

Built 1976 $104/sqft · at area comps Est $137k · at est. ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +6.4/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Your chance to own a doublewide in Paradise Island's 55+ park where $580/mo park rent is awesome for unbelievable amenities included! All appls stay; newer heat pump (heats/cools); circular kitchen; living & family rooms; both BRs w/ full BAs; lg covered deck to enjoy views all year; UGsprinklers in partially fenced yard; your own bridge across backyard creek to watch ducks & access clubhouse events; carport w/ oversized, divided shed & covered area.

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Soaking tub
• Pool

Tags

• CREEKSIDE SETTING
• BRIDGE TO CLUBHOUSE
• POOL
• FULLY APPLIANCED KITCHEN
• COVERED DECK
• SOAKING TUB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $549 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 2.9% in Salem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#59 in OR, #2,084 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 242 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.8% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 279 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 279 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.83%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $136,511
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: 2.48%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3100 Turner Rd S #220	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,368 (+2%)	1mo	$199,500	$146	96
3100 Turner Rd SE #625	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,377 (+2%)	0mo	$235,000	$171	90
3100 Turner Rd SE #424	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,368 (+2%)	10mo	$217,500	$159	89
3100 Turner Rd SE #311	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,368 (+2%)	10mo	$155,000	$113	84
3100 Turner Rd SE #206	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	8mo	$195,000	$135	81
3180 Turner Rd SE	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	5mo	$25,000	$17	78
3100 Turner Rd SE #523	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	1mo	$132,000	$115	75
3236 Turner Rd	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+7%)	8mo	$125,000	$87	65
3554 Turner Rd	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,188 (-12%)	1mo	$130,000	$109	60
2410 Lancaster Dr SE #962	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,404 (+4%)	8mo	$75,000	$53	54
3474 Turner Rd SE	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,485 (+10%)	6mo	$144,600	$97	52
2410 Lancaster Dr SE #332	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,426 (+6%)	10mo	$98,000	$69	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.84% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $10,207
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $45,466
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97302

• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 242
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,812 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,078/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $549

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,116

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2728 Lancaster Dr SE Unit 2728-14 Salem, OR	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,195	$1.20	44d	1	0.77mi
4243 Campbell Dr SE Unit 4243 Salem, OR	3.0	1.0	936	$1,550	$1.66	14d	1	0.89mi
1447 Connecticut St SE Salem, OR	3.0	2.0	1258	$2,675	$2.13	44d	1	1.06mi
4665 Campbell Dr SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	923	$1,699	$1.84	14d	1	1.18mi
2315 Strong Heights Ln SE Salem, OR	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1087	$1,850	$1.70	44d	1	1.25mi
3822 Bayonne Dr SE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	980	$1,299	$1.33	23d	1	1.27mi
3897 Meadowlawn Loop SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,619	$1.68	14d	26	1.27mi
3828 Bayonne Dr SE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	980	$1,299	$1.33	14d	1	1.27mi
1029 Raffon Ct SE Unit AR7171-3 Salem, OR	2.0	1.5	927	$1,700	$1.83	23d	1	1.41mi
3955 Outward Rd SE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	970	$1,824	$1.88	14d	20	1.41mi
2087 Audubon Ave SE Salem, OR	3.0	2.5	1325	$3,725	$2.81	23d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 279 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 278 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 277 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 276 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,900 Active 274 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,900 Active 271 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 270 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 269 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,900 Active 268 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,900 Active 264 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 263 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 262 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 261 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $139,900 Active 260 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    price $139,900 468-char remark

    Show marketing remark (468 chars)

    Your chance to own a doublewide in Paradise Island's 55+ park where $580/mo park rent is awesome for unbelievable amenities included! All appls stay; newer heat pump (heats/cools); circular kitchen; living & family rooms; both BRs w/ full BAs; lg covered deck to enjoy views all year; UGsprinklers in partially fenced yard; your own bridge across backyard creek to watch ducks & access clubhouse events; carport w/ oversized, divided shed & covered area.

16. 2026-01-16
    price $149,900 468-char remark

    Show marketing remark (468 chars)

    Your chance to own a doublewide in Paradise Island's 55+ park where $580/mo park rent is awesome for unbelievable amenities included! All appls stay; newer heat pump (heats/cools); circular kitchen; living & family rooms; both BRs w/ full BAs; lg covered deck to enjoy views all year; UGsprinklers in partially fenced yard; your own bridge across backyard creek to watch ducks & access clubhouse events; carport w/ oversized, divided shed & covered area.

17. 2025-11-12
    price $159,900 468-char remark

    Show marketing remark (468 chars)

    Your chance to own a doublewide in Paradise Island's 55+ park where $580/mo park rent is awesome for unbelievable amenities included! All appls stay; newer heat pump (heats/cools); circular kitchen; living & family rooms; both BRs w/ full BAs; lg covered deck to enjoy views all year; UGsprinklers in partially fenced yard; your own bridge across backyard creek to watch ducks & access clubhouse events; carport w/ oversized, divided shed & covered area.

18. 2025-09-25
    price $169,900 468-char remark

    Show marketing remark (468 chars)

    Your chance to own a doublewide in Paradise Island's 55+ park where $580/mo park rent is awesome for unbelievable amenities included! All appls stay; newer heat pump (heats/cools); circular kitchen; living & family rooms; both BRs w/ full BAs; lg covered deck to enjoy views all year; UGsprinklers in partially fenced yard; your own bridge across backyard creek to watch ducks & access clubhouse events; carport w/ oversized, divided shed & covered area.

19. 2025-09-12
    listed $174,900 Active 468-char remark

    Show marketing remark (468 chars)

    Your chance to own a doublewide in Paradise Island's 55+ park where $580/mo park rent is awesome for unbelievable amenities included! All appls stay; newer heat pump (heats/cools); circular kitchen; living & family rooms; both BRs w/ full BAs; lg covered deck to enjoy views all year; UGsprinklers in partially fenced yard; your own bridge across backyard creek to watch ducks & access clubhouse events; carport w/ oversized, divided shed & covered area.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,078 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,357 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: +$280/yr (+$23/mo · 25.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,739
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$1,078
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,739
• − Management: −$1,739
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $4,577
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,099
• After-tax cash flow: $5,494/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem-Keizer SD 24J
• NCES district ID: 4110820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,632
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #103 of 183 in OR

Livability — Salem

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #2084

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Salem, OR
• County: Marion County · 258,219 people
• City population: 193,601
• Metro: Salem, OR
• Population (ZIP): 40,799
• Household income: $85,833
• Rent vs Own: 38.5% rent · 61.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1754.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 10% Black 2% Pacific Islander 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -382.78%
• Current HPI: 296.7837
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• Metro: Salem, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $139,900 WVMLS
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $149,900 WVMLS
• 2025-11-12 Price Changed $159,900 WVMLS
• 2025-09-25 Price Changed $169,900 WVMLS
• 2025-09-12 Listed $174,900 WVMLS

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,078 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.