309 2nd St E · Chinook, MT 59523

$74,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 748 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 149 Days on market

Built 1954 3,600 sqft lot ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Key facts

• 3,600 sq ft lot
• Built 1954
• Listed 149 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $74k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $117 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($817 rent vs $74k).
• Recommended offer: $65k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#44 in MT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Chinook H S (rural): math 0% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #278 of 339 in MT (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Meadowlark School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #237 of 293 statewide, top 86%, 167 students, 0% FRL); Chinook 7-8 (math 15% / reading 34%, grade F, #118 of 146 statewide, top 81%, 57 students, 0% FRL); Chinook High School (math 10% / reading 30%, grade F, #111 of 132 statewide, top 88%, 114 students, 0% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 23% at this address vs 10% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Chinook H S average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.8%/yr); year-one equity from $512 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Blaine County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($65k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $65,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.77%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.84% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-877
• Equity at exit: $14,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $12,194
• Equity at exit: $13,265

Cash invested: $20,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59523

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $817 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$388
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,318/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$172
• Net cashflow: $117

Break-even live

Break-even rent $669

Max offer price $74,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $159	-5% $138	+0% $117	+5% $96	+10% $75
Rent	-10% $52	-5% $85	+0% $117	+5% $149	+10% $181
Rate	-1.0pp $154	-0.5pp $136	base $117	+0.5pp $98	+1.0pp $78

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,500
• Closing costs: $2,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-06-07
   listed $74,000 Pending 149 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MT · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,318 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,318 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,807
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,145
• − Property taxes: −$1,318
• − Insurance: −$370
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$785
• − Management: −$785
• − Depreciation: −$2,153
• Taxable income: $252
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$60
• After-tax cash flow: $1,342/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chinook H S
• NCES district ID: 3006270
• Math proficiency: 0% ▼ -40.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -19.00%
• Median HH income: $41,979
• Composite: 12.86/100
• National rank: #14540
• State rank: #278 of 339 in MT

Livability — Chinook

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #44
• US rank: #5341

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chinook, MT
• Population (ZIP): 2,281

Population outlook (Blaine County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,837 people
• By 2030: 6,969 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 7,228 · +5.7%
• By 2050: 7,540 · +10.3%
• By 2075: 8,571 · +25.4%
• By 2100: 9,058 · +32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 7% Native American 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Slovak 3% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Blaine

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.9) · D 44.6% · R 50.5% · Other 4.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.2pp toward R · 2008: 19.3pp · 2024: -5.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.9 2020: D+3.9 2016: R+2.8 2012: D+15.2 2008: D+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.84%
• Current HPI: 213.5954
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B

Price history

-7.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Pending — HHLMLS
• 2023-05-13 Price Changed $74,000 HHLMLS
• 2023-01-30 Listed $79,900 HHLMLS
• 2006-09-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,318 · -25.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.