468 Bluewater Dr · Bluewater, AZ 85344

$100,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 667 sqft · Manufactured · 80 Days on market

Built 1989 Fair condition 5,000 sqft lot $150/sqft · 78% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

On leased land. Cute two bedroom one bathroom home located near the river with a lot to offer! The property features convenient side parking on both sides, a new air conditioning unit installed last year, plus a utility/storage shed for tools and equipment. The home is fully fenced, with additional separated fencing in the side-yard perfect for pets, gardening, or just a little extra space. There is also a roll-away gate at the covered front porch for added security and the covered backyard porch provides a good place to relax and unwind with views of the river, mountains and sunsets . Community amenities include a private launch ramp, beach access, swimming pool, clubhouse and gated security. This is a great inexpensive place to get close to the river and start enjoying! Call Today!

Key facts

• Separated fencing
• Fully fenced
• Roll away gate

Tags

• SIDE PARKING
• UTILITY STORAGE SHED
• FULLY FENCED
• SEPARATED FENCING
• ROLL AWAY GATE
• COVERED BACKYARD PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $649 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 9.9% in Bluewater — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#81 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, schools F.
• Parker Unified School District (4510) (town): math 18% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #200 of 249 in AZ (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 92 units permitted in La Paz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• La Paz County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $67k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $94,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.80%
• DSCR: 2.24
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $56,250
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: 77.78%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
408 N Stardust Ln	0.10mi	2/2.0	720 (+8%)	0mo	$52,500	$73	78
401 Bluewater Dr	0.07mi	2/1.0	750 (+12%)	2mo	$60,000	$80	74
206 N Stardust Ln	0.31mi	2/1.0	600 (-10%)	5mo	$50,000	$83	65
431 Paradise Ln	0.10mi	2/2.0	720 (+8%)	18mo	$103,000	$143	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $25,133
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.69×
• Total profit: $75,184
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85344

• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,696 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,500/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $649

Break-even live

Break-even rent $875

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $100,000 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $100,000 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 70 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $100,000 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $100,000 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $100,000 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 64 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 63 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 62 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $100,000 Active 61 DOM
17. 2026-04-14
    price $100,000 796-char remark

    Show marketing remark (796 chars)

    On leased land. Cute two bedroom one bathroom home located near the river with a lot to offer! The property features convenient side parking on both sides, a new air conditioning unit installed last year, plus a utility/storage shed for tools and equipment. The home is fully fenced, with additional separated fencing in the side-yard perfect for pets, gardening, or just a little extra space. There is also a roll-away gate at the covered front porch for added security and the covered backyard porch provides a good place to relax and unwind with views of the river, mountains and sunsets . Community amenities include a private launch ramp, beach access, swimming pool, clubhouse and gated security. This is a great inexpensive place to get close to the river and start enjoying! Call Today!

18. 2026-03-30
    listed $105,000 Active 796-char remark

    Show marketing remark (796 chars)

    On leased land. Cute two bedroom one bathroom home located near the river with a lot to offer! The property features convenient side parking on both sides, a new air conditioning unit installed last year, plus a utility/storage shed for tools and equipment. The home is fully fenced, with additional separated fencing in the side-yard perfect for pets, gardening, or just a little extra space. There is also a roll-away gate at the covered front porch for added security and the covered backyard porch provides a good place to relax and unwind with views of the river, mountains and sunsets . Community amenities include a private launch ramp, beach access, swimming pool, clubhouse and gated security. This is a great inexpensive place to get close to the river and start enjoying! Call Today!

19. 2020-02-13
    soldstatus $67,450 326-char remark

    Show marketing remark (326 chars)

    Adorable 2 Bedroom with River Views! Enjoy beautiful scenery from both covered patios front and rear. Fenced yard, room to park an RV on this lot, covered carport and shed. This home comes furnished so just bring your toothbrush. Perfect Vacation Home! Community Launch Ramp, Beach, Pool and Clubhouse. 24 Hr gated Community.

20. 2019-11-09
    listed $69,900 326-char remark

    Show marketing remark (326 chars)

    Adorable 2 Bedroom with River Views! Enjoy beautiful scenery from both covered patios front and rear. Fenced yard, room to park an RV on this lot, covered carport and shed. This home comes furnished so just bring your toothbrush. Perfect Vacation Home! Community Launch Ramp, Beach, Pool and Clubhouse. 24 Hr gated Community.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,350
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,500
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,628
• − Management: −$1,628
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $6,583
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,580
• After-tax cash flow: $6,204/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires significant repairs and updates to improve its condition and value. The exterior and interior need fresh paint, new flooring, and updated bathrooms and kitchen. Upgrading these areas will significantly enhance the home's resale and rental potential.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Exposed metal roof with visible rust
• Major exterior siding — Weathered siding, peeling paint
• Major flooring — Worn carpet in living areas
• Major interior walls/paint — Worn paint and some discoloration
• Major bathrooms — Small and outdated with basic fixtures
• Major kitchen — Basic appliances and dated cabinetry

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace carpet — Improves comfort and reduces maintenance
• Both Upgrade bathrooms — Enhances functionality and aesthetics
• Both Replace kitchen cabinetry and appliances — Modernizes the space and improves functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Exposed metal roof with visible rust	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Weathered siding, peeling paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Worn carpet in living areas	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · Worn paint and some discoloration	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathrooms · Small and outdated with basic fixtures	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen · Basic appliances and dated cabinetry	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$90,000–300,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace carpet — Improves comfort and reduces maintenance ↑
• Both Upgrade bathrooms — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace kitchen cabinetry and appliances — Modernizes the space and improves functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Parker Unified School District (4510)
• NCES district ID: 0405980
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $34,354
• Composite: 14.76/100
• National rank: #9392
• State rank: #200 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Bluewater

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #81
• US rank: #12872

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bluewater, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 9,069

Population outlook (La Paz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,409 people
• By 2030: 17,592 · -4.4%
• By 2040: 16,600 · -9.8%
• By 2050: 16,328 · -11.3%
• By 2075: 17,075 · -7.2%
• By 2100: 17,042 · -7.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 34% Native American 23% Two or more races 19% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · La Paz

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.2) · D 27.6% · R 71.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.7pp toward R · 2008: -28.5pp · 2024: -44.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.2 2020: R+38.8 2016: R+41.8 2012: R+32.2 2008: R+28.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.38%
• Current HPI: 198.2271
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+43.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $100,000 LHAR
• 2026-03-30 Listed $105,000 LHAR
• 2020-02-13 Sold (MLS) $67,450 LHAR
• 2019-11-09 Listed $69,900 LHAR