4913 40th St · Lubbock, TX 79414

$115,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,273 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 85 Days on market

Built 1955 7,950 sqft lot $90/sqft · 7% below area Est $122k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.6/30.0
• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 4913 40th Street—an ideal opportunity for investors, first-time buyers, or Texas Tech students looking for a well-located home. Situated in a convenient central location, this property offers quick access to shopping, dining, and campus. Inside, you'll find a functional layout with a comfortable living area and spacious bedrooms. The home features great natural light throughout and offers plenty of potential to make it your own. Whether you're looking to add to your rental portfolio or settle into your first home, this property provides flexibility and value. The backyard offers space for entertaining, pets, or future improvements, while the established neighborhood adds to the home's charm and appeal. Don't miss your chance to own a property in a prime location with strong potential—schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Concrete path
• Huge backyard
• 7,950 sq ft lot

Tags

• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORING
• HUGE BACKYARD
• CONCRETE PATH
• CLOSE TO TEXAS TECH UNIVERSITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $216 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 89 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.06%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $121,920
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: -5.68%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-7,962
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-1,331
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79414

• Home prices YoY: -27.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,312 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$169 /mo · $2,031/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $216

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,038

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $281	-5% $249	+0% $216	+5% $184	+10% $151
Rent	-10% $113	-5% $165	+0% $216	+5% $268	+10% $320
Rate	-1.0pp $274	-0.5pp $246	base $216	+0.5pp $187	+1.0pp $156

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4817 40th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1254	$1,300	$1.04	14d	1	0.09mi
4907 41st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1196	$1,200	$1.00	44d	1	0.09mi
4907 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	44d	1	0.17mi
4907 36th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1020	$1,095	$1.07	14d	1	0.23mi
4815 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1282	$1,500	$1.17	22d	1	0.23mi
4803 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,200	$0.85	22d	1	0.27mi
4818 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,400	$1.09	22d	1	0.27mi
4819 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,300	$0.92	44d	1	0.28mi
4801 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,275	$0.90	22d	1	0.28mi
5003 35th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$1,550	$1.03	14d	1	0.30mi
4707 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1053	$1,049	$1.00	14d	1	0.32mi
4708 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1249	$1,350	$1.08	44d	1	0.33mi
5101 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,350	$1.16	22d	1	0.34mi
4702 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	900	$1,150	$1.28	14d	1	0.35mi
5024 35th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,300	$0.95	22d	1	0.36mi
4916 46th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$1,450	$1.05	14d	1	0.37mi
5002 46th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1369	$1,450	$1.06	44d	1	0.38mi
4619 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1404	$1,500	$1.07	44d	1	0.39mi
5214 38th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	922	$825	$0.89	44d	1	0.42mi
5017 46th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1753	$1,600	$0.91	44d	1	0.44mi
5220 41st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,400	$0.91	22d	1	0.44mi
5304 38th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	922	$825	$0.89	44d	1	0.44mi
5306 38th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	922	$825	$0.89	44d	1	0.45mi
4926 48th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1354	$1,500	$1.11	22d	1	0.49mi
5318 39th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1736	$1,375	$0.79	14d	1	0.51mi
4606 35th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1684	$1,800	$1.07	44d	1	0.51mi
3333 Toledo Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0–1.5	924	$741	$0.80	14d	7	0.58mi
4510 35th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	888	$750	$0.84	22d	1	0.60mi
4510 35th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	888	$750	$0.84	44d	1	0.60mi
4413 40th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,350	$1.17	22d	1	0.63mi
4602 50th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1080	$1,368	$1.27	14d	9	0.64mi
4409 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,350	$1.35	14d	1	0.65mi
5302 48th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,450	$1.06	22d	1	0.65mi
4702 31st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,450	$0.91	44d	1	0.65mi
4705 Albany Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	926	$742	$0.80	14d	5	0.65mi
4430 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,100	$0.78	44d	1	0.67mi
5415 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,450	$1.02	22d	1	0.67mi
4601 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	928	$995	$1.07	14d	1	0.67mi
4428 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1685	$1,375	$0.82	44d	1	0.68mi
5204 50th St Lubbock, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1050	$1,150	$1.10	14d	2	0.71mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $115,000 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $115,000 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,000 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,000 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,000 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,000 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $119,000 Active 71 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,000 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,000 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,000 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 67 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $119,000 Active 66 DOM
17. 2026-03-25
    listed $139,900 Active 846-char remark

    Show marketing remark (846 chars)

    Welcome to 4913 40th Street—an ideal opportunity for investors, first-time buyers, or Texas Tech students looking for a well-located home. Situated in a convenient central location, this property offers quick access to shopping, dining, and campus. Inside, you'll find a functional layout with a comfortable living area and spacious bedrooms. The home features great natural light throughout and offers plenty of potential to make it your own. Whether you're looking to add to your rental portfolio or settle into your first home, this property provides flexibility and value. The backyard offers space for entertaining, pets, or future improvements, while the established neighborhood adds to the home's charm and appeal. Don't miss your chance to own a property in a prime location with strong potential—schedule your showing today!

18. 2024-12-30
    price $121,000
19. 2024-11-21
    price $124,000
20. 2024-11-08
    price $129,500
21. 2024-09-27
    historical $1,055
22. 2024-09-14
    price $1,055
23. 2024-09-12
    listed $1,150
24. 2022-06-06
    listed $139,900 Active
25. 1995-08-01
    soldstatus
26. 1987-09-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,031 · $169/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,104 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: +$74/yr (+$6/mo · 3.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,746
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$2,031
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,260
• − Management: −$1,260
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $834
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$200
• After-tax cash flow: $2,397/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,596
• Household income: $49,057
• Rent vs Own: 65.4% rent · 34.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1330.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 39% Two or more races 21% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 16%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.31%
• Current HPI: 247.7963
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.56%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Listed $139,900 LARMLS
• 2024-12-30 Price Changed $121,000 LARMLS
• 2024-11-21 Price Changed $124,000 LARMLS
• 2024-11-08 Price Changed $129,500 LARMLS
• 2024-09-27 Rental Removed $1,055 RENT.
• 2024-09-14 Price Changed $1,055 RENT.
• 2024-09-12 Listed for Rent $1,150 RENT.
• 2022-06-06 Listed $139,900 LARMLS
• 1995-08-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1987-09-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,031 · +14.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.